Mr. Crumbs Leans for Friday 6/19/09

[cocknocker]

For Friday's games I like the following teams. I will come along later on and give my report.

Pale Hose-106 HEAVY
Astros+140 HEAVY
Brewers+105
Wahoos-115 1st 5 innings* Added Play Courtesy of BigMoneyMan


Starting pitcher WHIP Last 3 games

CWS 0.71 (WOW!)
CIN 1.67

Advantage Pales

Power rankings

CWS +141
CIN-141

Actual opening line

CWS-104
CIN-104

Advantage PUSH. The consensus on this game is tight but the Pales have a slight edge as on a couple of books they are actually the favorite now.

Slugging % last 3 games

CWS .430
CIN .330

Advantage Pales

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

CWS 0.968
CIN 1.298

Advantage Pales

My pick: Pale Hose-106 HEAVY

**************************************** *********

Starting pitcher WHIP last 3 games

HOU 1.25
MIN 1.44

Advantage Astros

Power rankings

HOU+119
MIN-119

Line

HOU+127
MIN-135

Advantage PUSH. Although the line for the Twins keeps going up and is now at as high as -155 on some books, the linemaker has given Houston a little more juice or positive money, and their take is now around +140. The Astros are also a dome team so the indoor advantage that the Twins usually enjoy over teams coming in is not there in this game.

Slugging% last 3 games

HOU .462
MIN .510

Advantage Twins

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

HOU 1.157
MIN 2.000

Advantage Astros

My pick: Astros+140 HEAVY. It is abundantly clear that there is a false favorite in this game. If Berkman can get out of his slump a bit and start doing what he is supposed to do, then it will be grand. But the American League rules means that the 'Stros will get another bat in their lineup and give Berkman some protection and insulate him from getting junk to swing at.

**************************************** *****************

Starting pitcher WHIP last 3 games

MIL 1.38
DET 1.79

Advantage Brewers

Power rankings


MIL +127
DET -127

Actual opening line

MIL+119
DET-127

Advantage: Brewers. Although they have a slightly higher consensus among the bettors, they have managed to take the line down to DET-125/MIL+105, or in other words they have had some of their juice stolen while the Tigers have not. Usually when one number goes up the other goes down, not one goes down and the other stays the same.

**************************************** ****************

Starters WHIP last 3 games

CLE 1.09
CUB 1.17

Advantage Wahoos

Power ranking

CLE+121
CUB-121

Line

CLE+102
CUB-110

Advantage: Who cares? I'm tailing BigMoney. I'm just like y'all with this play!

Slugging% last 3 games

CLE .521 WOW
CUB .330

Advantage Wahoos HEAVY

Bullpen WHIP last 3 games

CLE 2.500*
CUB 1.803

Advantage Cubs

BigMoneyMan's pick: Wahoos 1st half, as their bullpen has a horrid number *(2.500), and the fate of your money should not be in their hands at any cost

[TodaysAction]

For Friday's games I like the following teams. I will come along later on and give my report.

Pale Hose-110 HEAVY
Astros+125 HEAVY
Brewers+105

Congrats on hitting your two heavies today (Thursday).

[jellobiafra]

Astros+125 HEAVY

I'm also on TEX/SFG under 8.5 and KC -105.



Good luck all. Peace see ya later.

[Panekkkk]

Liking the MIL pick. Pitchers are a wash, both have been fairly bad in their last 3.

Big difference is hitting:

MIL 3-4-5 hitters are slugging -- wait for it -- .921 with 6.34 runs created per game in their last 3.

compare this to DET .345 with 1 run created per game...

DET finally broke their slump today, which may be a little cause for concern, but Rodney almost blew tonight's game late and he likely won't be available tomorrow. Nice reverse line movement so far also. 83% of bettors on DET and MIL line has gone from +115 to +105

[sportsguy04]

For Friday's games I like the following teams. I will come along later on and give my report.

Pale Hose-110 HEAVY
Astros+125 HEAVY
Brewers+105

Going against my Redlegs tommorow eh? I agree with ya, WhiteSox will take tommorrow with Arroyo on the mound. CONTRERAS HAS BEEN STELLAR HIS PAST FEW GAMES!!!!

Another thing I would take is White Sox first 4.5 innings also Whitesox to score first and even White Sox score in 1st inning. Arroyo aways gives up a run in the 1st it seems like.

[kmarinouofm]

don't need the report

For Friday's games I like the following teams. I will come along later on and give my report.

Pale Hose-110 HEAVY
Astros+125 HEAVY
Brewers+105

just looking at these games i am loving the White Sox and Brewers

Conterras has been an animal after he has gotten back from Charlotte, looks like that stint in detention lit a fire under his a s s .. the sox have won 9 straight i think against the reds and are something like 12 and 2 or 13 and 3.. against them.. right now the reds bats are cold and facing some hot pitching.. sox are coming off a tough loss and Arroyo has been horrid this month 0-2 with a 6.23 ERA in three starts this month , He's 1-2 with a 6.52 ERA in three career starts versus Chicago.


Brew Crew is starting to look hot they just swept the indians and are coming off an off day. Even with some suspect pitching lately the bats have been able to keep them in games.. Ryan Braun is supposed to be back and he has been smashing AL teams.. Also Fielder has been killing the ball this month, .383 (23 for 60) with 16 RBIs in 16 games this month.. however he sucks against the tigers..but i really like him in this spot he is up against Galarraga and I feel like he is finally due to put some nice numbers up against a crap pitcher. Looper has been steady for the most part as late and has split decisions against the tigers.. Galarraga is 0-7 with a 7.54 ERA in his last nine starts , there are also rumors that he is actually playing hurt and playing to help the rotation who is without bonderman.. Classic let down game for a team coming home off a win... Crew gets it done with the better pitching and the hotter bats tomorrow.. its my big play..

[sportsguy04]

I like:

White Sox ML
Cardinals ML
Brewers ML

Will play individually and also Parlay.

[kmarinouofm]

CK looks like i am moving to San Jose in the next few weeks for good..

[The_Kid]

It's interesting to see the Angels as dogs to the Dodgers. The Angels OWN the Dodgers in interleague play (12-5 in the L17) and the Dodgers are only 6-18 up in Anaheim since 2001. Dodgers offense is still struggling a bit and the Angels offense is really clicking. The Angels are certainly heating up while the Dodgers have cooled off a bit. Got to go with the slight home dog in this one. ANGELS ML -102

[JumpoffJoeBeezy]

Anybody like the Mariners -1.5 tomorrow? The M's absolutely WEAR Garland out..

[Jimbo42]

What up!

Booked:

Tampa Bay -110
Tampa Bay -1.5 +150

GL

[waiverwire]

I like:

White Sox ML
Cardinals ML
Brewers ML

Will play individually and also Parlay.

Brewers are a likely rainout: http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl

[cocknocker]

CK looks like i am moving to San Jose in the next few weeks for good..

Cool, we'll link it up when you do come out!

[cocknocker]

The Red Birds have everything that I look for in a pick as well, but Thompson gives up too many walks for my liking, and 13 strikeouts is a nice number but when you factor in that he also has 8 walks against that number, well, you have a recipe for a high scoring affair, beause Davies is no better

[cocknocker]

The number on my games have changed a bit and I have made my big board updated to reflect that information

[MrSink]

hey guys
what about cubs today?
For me it's still really good value to take it with -1.5 underdog?
I'm waiting for yours opinion? Thanks and GL all

[sportsguy04]

What about the Cubs/Indians Under 9?

Lee has been phenominal his past few starts with a era less then 1.60. Harden is also a fairly good pitcher and the Cubs bats continue to struggle.

[DeeWizzle]

I was actually thinkin over. I'm back and forth on both team and total so I'll probably sit this one out.

[Panekkkk]

Anyone liking the Yankees ML or RL? The road might help them recoup. Petite has nice numbers on the road and honestly, FLA's hitting is terrible.

West has pitched well so far but gave up 4 hits and 4 walks with 0 k his last outing against the Jays. His numbers should start to drop as he is obviously not as good as they indicate.

If West pitches even decent, the under (buy 1/2 point at 10) might be worth a look.

[DeeWizzle]

NYY 7-1 Road vs. LH's scoring 5.8 rpg. Yankees 4-1 in Pettitte's road starts, where he has 2.59 era over 31.1 ip.

[shoebox]

Im suprised you guys arent taking a look at KC, be home tonite GL today!

1 play

KC heavy......

[sportsguy04]

Im suprised you guys arent taking a look at KC, be home tonite GL today!

1 play

KC heavy......

Interesting, I actually like Cardinals here, but I have been on a 1-6 losing streak past few days.

[cocknocker]

Para mi homie, Dexter, Wahoos-115 1st 5 innings! Let's do it!

[cocknocker]

Im suprised you guys arent taking a look at KC, be home tonite GL today!

1 play

KC heavy......

KC is lacking in the areas I need to throw down, shoe....but at the same time Thompson is green ,and that may defy all of the advantages the Red Birdies have over the Royals in this game. But from what I see, the Royals bullpen may get smoked like a joint with a a blistering 2.535 WHIP over the last 3 games. Davies has a WHIP of 1.50 over his last 3 performances, and Thompson (I know very well as a Red Birds fan) is a collision waiting to happen with 13 strikeouts against 8 walks. I think that the appropriate play for this game would be the UNDER 1st half, as Pujols may/may not start. Without him the Red Birds lack bop in the middle of their lineup, and the ability to maximize their talent will dwindle...

The hitting is very close in this one, but without Fatty who knows? You may get some lightning in a bottle.

[JayLiang]

CK you still going with the same picks of Pales Hose, and Astros?

[ragiche]

Ck,if i may ask what team do you like in the cle/chc games if you are going to lay a small wager on this game?

[The_Kid]

ANGELS ML -102

Forget this play. Abreu, Hunter, and Guerrero might not play.

[MrSink]

booked Cubs (heavy)
wish me good luck

slow play you pay

[ragiche]

Wahoos RRL 1st 5 inninings (2x)

[sportsguy04]

Im on:
Cubs/Indians Under 9 heavy

Parlay:
White Sox ML
Cubs Under 9
Cardinals ML
Phillies ML


Will als play White Sox ML Heavy along with a medium play on Cardinals ML.

[djpremier36]

My forecast shows...

CHC -117

MIL +104

TB -105

CWS -106

[muffin_pirate]

Booked:

Pirates +145
Padres +127
Blue Jays -101

PARLAY: Orioles / Astros / Pirates +1260
PARLAY: Orioles / Astros / Padres +1160
PARLAY: Orioles / Pirates / Padres +1220

[ragiche]

CK,don't you like Marquis and the rockies tonight? Can you give me some insights on this one,please.

[Minkus]

CK

BlueJays
Royals
Rays
RedSox RL

what do you think?

[GoldenPig]

Shoe,

I looked at the KC Royals game as well and just didn't like it as much as the Giants game. Also, I am just not that familiar with the two pitchers on the mound, but more familiar with Davies than Thompson. Although, I think Thompson is a better pitcher than Davies overall, but just don't have a read on who is going to show up. Plus I have only taken the Royals once this year, but have taken the Cardinals many times but not with Thompson on the mound. I like to go with what I know and what I am comfortable with. I only play a couple plays a day or every other day to avoid dilution.

Tentatively, I like the Giants at -115 the best.