Bullpen Conversion System

[Panekkkk]

http://sbrforum.com/Free+Picks/MLB/11317/millwood-rangers-140-cool-off-houston-astros-texas-heat.aspx

Cajun Sports mentioned this system in their Rangers write-up today. I'm calling it the Bullpen Conversion System:

"The Rangers are also active in a MLB System that tells us to play on MLB favorites of -110 or higher with a bullpen that converts on 75 percent or more of their save opportunities against an opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season. This system has a record of 79-37 over the last five seasons for 68.1 percent winners and a profit of +29.90 units."

Anyone know anything about this system? Is it as simple as it's outlined???? I assume they mean -110 or lower (-110, -120, -130 etc.) which would make more sense considering that the opponents pitcher is to have an ERA <=3.00.

29 units over 5 years is also not that impressive... But with that win % perhaps it would be better to play to win 1 unit as opposed to risking 1 unit (not sure how the system was played but using average odds its more profitable to play to win 1 unit). Regardless, if it performs as mentioned, it's just another background system to add some units to your bets :P

[Panekkkk]

Teams converting at 75% or Higher:

TEX
CIN
BOS
STL

According to data from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/bas...D_RUN_AVG.html

Regardless, I guess I will start to track this as of today for fun if I can. Not sure yet if I will play these to make one unit or to risk one unit. Maybe I'll track both.

Bullpen Conversion System (as of June 16, 2009)

PICK:
Texas -134
Texas closers converting at 86%
Opponent Pitcher: Wandy Rodriguez ERA <3.00 on the season
No other games qualify.

[Panekkkk]

I'm not sure how a system like this would handle April since it relies on seasonal ERA as well as (I'm guessing) seasonal bullpen conversions. Therefore, in coming years, I would probably start this in May only.

[Panekkkk]

Teams converting at 75% or Higher:

TEX
CIN
BOS
STL

According to data from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/bas...D_RUN_AVG.html

Regardless, I guess I will start to track this as of today for fun if I can. Not sure yet if I will play these to make one unit or to risk one unit. Maybe I'll track both.

Bullpen Conversion System (as of June 16, 2009)

PICK:
Texas -134 WINNER
Texas closers converting at 86%
Opponent Pitcher: Wandy Rodriguez ERA <3.00 on the season
No other games qualify.

YTD 1-0 +1.00 units

[Panekkkk]

Colorado didn't qualify yesterday (bullpen conversion of 71%); however, if we laxed the rules to bullpen conversion rate of 70%, this system would have reeled off another win. I won't officially count that, but I'll make note

No games qualify today.

[Panekkkk]

No picks last few days (picks are rare).
Today one pick qualifies:

BOS -123
Bullpen conversion: 79%
Jurjens <3.00 ERA on the season

YTD: 1-0 +1.00 units

[Panekkkk]

No picks last few days (picks are rare).
Today one pick qualifies:

BOS -123
Bullpen conversion: 79% WIN
Jurjens <3.00 ERA on the season

YTD: 2-0 +2.00 units

[Panekkkk]

No picks last few days (picks are rare).
Today, Boston does not technically qualify as its bullpen conversion has dropped below 75%. But as noted, will track any team above 70% just to see results but it will not factor into official count.

BOS -116
Bullpen conversion: 74%
Jurjens <3.00 ERA on the season

YTD: 2-0 +2.00 units

[Sawyer]

Looks interesting system..

[Panekkkk]

No picks last few days (picks are rare).
Today, Boston does not technically qualify as its bullpen conversion has dropped below 75%. But as noted, will track any team above 70% just to see results but it will not factor into official count.

BOS -116 WIN
Bullpen conversion: 74%
Jurjens <3.00 ERA on the season

YTD: 2-0 +2.00 units (using 75% or >; official system)
YTD: 4-0 +4.00 units (using 70% or >)

[Panekkkk]

Looks interesting system..

Yeah, it's nothing fantastic. Will probably get you at most 5 to 10 units a year but just something to keep in mind when betting

[Bogart45]

This is very interesting. Keep posting the picks as they come up.

[Panekkkk]

This is very interesting. Keep posting the picks as they come up.

I'll keep posting as plays come up. None for today.

[jakeandba]

what is the particular sort by item that gives you the 70% or higher result?

[Panekkkk]

what is the particular sort by item that gives you the 70% or higher result?

I just use data from http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/bas...D_RUN_AVG.html and put it into an excel sheet and add an extra column that calculates S/SO (saves/save opportunities). Then you can use the "Data" "Sort" option. Or just eyeball it.

As of today, 5 teams now 75% or higher bullpen conversion rates:

CIN
TEX
BOS
COL
STL

An additional 4 teams above 70% but <75%:

NYY
CWS
OAK
MIN

For anyone wondering, yesterday, I did not count the Angels/Rangers game because the Angels starter had a 3.00 ERA with only 2 starts. I will use at least 3 starts or probably 20 IP as a cut-off for the requirement of opposing pitcher seasonal ERA 3.00 or less.

Today:

No games qualify.

[jakeandba]

ok let c if i can follow what you are saying....the tx rangers i got have a save to save opport of 81% when rounded up....21 saves to 26 SVO....now the tricky part..joe saunders has an season era of 3.66. the last three games have been:

june 24 ip 6 era 1
june 19 ip 6.1 era 4
june 13 ip 8.1 era 1

i understand that ur qualifier is 20 ip or 3 starts.

a: do you add up this era and divide by 3 or ? to get the resent era?

Next the line for the rangers was roughly -111. Sorry but my brain is the size of a dinosaur...what was I missing for the rangers not to be a play?

[Panekkkk]

Today's plays:

STL -147
Bullpen conversion > 75%
Matt Cain <3.00 ERA

YTD 2-0 +2.00 units (75% and up)
YTD 4-0 +2.00 units (70%-75%

[Panekkkk]

ok let c if i can follow what you are saying....the tx rangers i got have a save to save opport of 81% when rounded up....21 saves to 26 SVO....now the tricky part..joe saunders has an season era of 3.66. the last three games have been:

june 24 ip 6 era 1
june 19 ip 6.1 era 4
june 13 ip 8.1 era 1

i understand that ur qualifier is 20 ip or 3 starts.

a: do you add up this era and divide by 3 or ? to get the resent era?

Next the line for the rangers was roughly -111. Sorry but my brain is the size of a dinosaur...what was I missing for the rangers not to be a play?

It just goes by seasonal ERA (their ERA over all of 2009). Saunders ERA was 3.66 going into yesterdays game therefore does not qualify.

[Panekkkk]

Today's plays:

STL -147
Bullpen conversion > 75%
Matt Cain <3.00 ERA

YTD 3-0 +3.00 units (75% and up; official system)
YTD 5-0 +2.00 units (70%-75%)

[Panekkkk]

Today's picks:

BOS -116
Bullpen conversion 74%
Hernandez ERA <3.00

(This is an unofficial pick, using conversion of 70% or higher. Official system is 75% or higher so tail with caution. Plus this system is due for a loss soon).

YTD 3-0 +3.00 units (75% and up; official system)
YTD 5-0 +5.00 units (70% and up)

[jakeandba]

lets get this bro

[Panekkkk]

Today's picks:

BOS -116 LOSS
Bullpen conversion 74%
Hernandez ERA <3.00

(This is an unofficial pick, using conversion of 70% or higher. Official system is 75% or higher so tail with caution. Plus this system is due for a loss soon).

YTD 3-0 +3.00 units (75% and up; official system)
YTD 5-1 +3.84 units (70% and up)

As stated, this system was due for a loss and thus I personally didn't make this play. No plays today.

[Panekkkk]

No games qualify. I might drop the 70% and up unofficial system of it as 9 teams have conversion between 70 and 75%. Colorado would qualify today using 70% and up, although the line is very weak at -111 vs. Haren and would vary depending on the book and time. Since it's right around the cutoff I would likely exclude it.

[Panekkkk]

Quite a few teams above 75% now:

Cardinals
Reds
Rockies
Yankees
Rangers
Red Sox

I've been looking fairly consistently but may have missed a play over the last few days or so. Only rolling with the "official" 75% conversion and up.

1 play today:

NYY -140

YTD 3-0 +3.00 units (75% and up; official system)

[Panekkkk]

Quite a few teams above 75% now:

Cardinals
Reds
Rockies
Yankees
Rangers
Red Sox

I've been looking fairly consistently but may have missed a play over the last few days or so.

1 play today:

NYY -140

YTD 4-0 +4.00 units (75% and up; official system)

[Panekkkk]

1 play today:

BOS -165

YTD 4-0 +4.00 units (75% and up; official system)

[peterpan19]

well nice system...but not a lot of plays...but GL today...

[Panekkkk]

Yeah, I may have missed a game or two cuz it gets so boring tracking nothing lol. Its' just a nice little background booster! I'm more about playing multiple proven systems, however small the daily returns, than capping plays anymore. Less stress, greater returns in the long-run.

[Panekkkk]

1 play today:

BOS -165

YTD 4-1 +2.35 units (75% and up; official system)

Due for a loss and it hit! Sox couldn't get the bats going at well. Kudos to Hunter for pitching a gem!

[linglingfool]

Hey Panek, quick question: I'm trying to learn SDQL, but the examples for starters are a bit lacking. Would you check for eligible matchups (ignoring the save % part) for this system with a query for "D and YTDSERA<=3 and date=today"?

Thanks!

[Panekkkk]

http://sportsdatabase.com/mlb.py/query?text=D+and+YTDSERA%3C%3D3+and+date%3Dtoday&submit=query

[Panekkkk]

Not sure exactly what you mean lingling? your query looks fine!?

[linglingfool]

Not sure exactly what you mean lingling? your query looks fine!?

I was just asking if that was the correct query to run for this system, and apparently it is. Thanks!

[Panekkkk]

Ah I see ling. Yah I think that looks about right. I just check Yahoo's mlb schedule for starters under a 3.00 ERA takes about 10 seconds. Then I have to double check the bullpen conversion rates to see who's at 75% or up. I generally know which teams are up there and there aren't too many pitchers with < 3 ERA!

[linglingfool]

Wouldn't the Tigers have been a play today under the system?