Interesting baseball method

TheIntegrityKid · 06-09-09, 11:40 AM

i actually like this one as i believe baseball is all about finding the best pitching vs the teams that arent hitting so well

coldhardfacts · 06-09-09, 12:30 PM

Any statistically based handicapping system that factors in the relative recent performance of teams will be successful in the long run.

hajune · 06-09-09, 01:11 PM

I will add a little to this basic method of play. I believe it is important to look at the relief pitching over the past two weeks. This will have more validity . Linemakers do not weigh relief pitching as much as they should. I look at teams that give up leads in the last 3 innings. I especially like to play against teams that gave up big leads (4 runs or more). They lose the next game more often then win it.
Eventually it wears a team down emotionally when they have no confidence in the bullpen it has to frustrating to starting pitchers when they see their win become a no decision. I can not prove this but it is likely this becomes stronger as the year go's on , especially when a team becomes a non contender. Anybody researching this will be surprised at some of the bottom 10 teams. Of course this has to be updated at least twice a week. I do not play teams with bad relief pitching unless a dog and under special circutances

TheIntegrityKid · 06-09-09, 01:25 PM

what do you think of First Five Innings... how does your system account for that???

or is that something you avoid altogether???

reno cool · 06-09-09, 05:01 PM

my guess is: don't waste your time. Nobody's ever thought of betting a good team against a bad one before.

hajune · 06-09-09, 05:47 PM

According to the article read to me this has hit for over 100 units a year for the last 3 years. There were about 750 plays a year. I think however that it hits about 50 units a year. I did the match and I think I am close. ESPN updates the bullpen and puts teams in order.
Here is how they stand as of today
1 Bos 2.67
2 mets 2.94
3 milw 3.26
4 cinc 3.32
5 sea 3.47
6 dod 3.53
7 phil 3.59
8 cws 3.65
9 sf 3.75
10 sd 4.00
worst 10
1 angels 5.87
2 wash 5.67
3 color 5.04
4 ariz 4.95
5 clev 4.87
6 yank 4.79
7 tex 4.77
8 balt 4.72
9 det 4.55
10 cubs 4.43
I think it is best to find the run difference rather then the rankings.
I think it would also be of the essence to see how the bullpen has done in the last 2 weeks. Of special importance would be to see how many games they have blown with a 3 run lead or more.
also teams that blow big leads in thier last game usually lose the next game
cheers

hajune · 06-09-09, 06:03 PM

Originally posted by reno cool

my guess is: don't waste your time. Nobody's ever thought of betting a good team against a bad one before.

You said it is your guess. Guess work has no meaning and those who apply it are doomed to fail.!!! This also is not about good teams but good bullpens. Unless you do the research you are guessing. If you guess you will be one of the 99%+ who loses. Your comment has no substance. Why bother. You say do not waste your time but YOU are guessing, hum. That does not sound like an intelligent reply. I bet you do not use any proven method of play because you guess. When I get something with potential I research it. That is key!!!! I suggest you do the same ( you have never done this I am sure ) and anybody who reads this. Perhaps you can be one of the 1/2% that wins.

MonkeyF0cker · 06-09-09, 07:19 PM

LT Profits attempted something like this last year. It returned nowhere near 100 units.

reno cool · 06-09-09, 08:30 PM

Originally posted by hajune

You said it is your guess. Guess work has no meaning and those who apply it are doomed to fail.!!! This also is not about good teams but good bullpens. Unless you do the research you are guessing. If you guess you will be one of the 99%+ who loses. Your comment has no substance. Why bother. You say do not waste your time but YOU are guessing, hum. That does not sound like an intelligent reply. I bet you do not use any proven method of play because you guess. When I get something with potential I research it. That is key!!!! I suggest you do the same ( you have never done this I am sure ) and anybody who reads this. Perhaps you can be one of the 1/2% that wins.

I'd prefer to research ideas that have a rats chance in hell. But hey, it's your dime. (bullpens is a whole different matter)

Kyleben · 06-09-09, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by hajune

You said it is your guess. Guess work has no meaning and those who apply it are doomed to fail.!!! This also is not about good teams but good bullpens. Unless you do the research you are guessing. If you guess you will be one of the 99%+ who loses. Your comment has no substance. Why bother. You say do not waste your time but YOU are guessing, hum. That does not sound like an intelligent reply. I bet you do not use any proven method of play because you guess. When I get something with potential I research it. That is key!!!! I suggest you do the same ( you have never done this I am sure ) and anybody who reads this. Perhaps you can be one of the 1/2% that wins.

I'm not taking sides but it doesn't sound like you have done your research. A simple back test and some real data would make a 50+ unit claim plausible or not plausible, so far I have seen none of that.

hajune · 06-10-09, 07:46 AM

I will give you a good way to proceed with this method. Play on teams that have a ERA of 1.00 or better then the bottom teams using 2 defensive rules
Do not play against hot teams definition- won 4 of last 5 games
Do not play on teams that traveled a long distance. ( first game only)
Do not play on teams that have not won 40% of their games on the road if they are the visitors.
Tuesday's results 3-0 Cinc- Bos- SF
Teams kicked out Milw & Colorado 5-0 last five games - Seattle- Balt traveled 3000 miles

hajune · 06-11-09, 06:44 AM

Originally posted by hajune

I was given this method by a respected handicapper.
Look up the ERA of all the baseball teams.
You are intersted in the top 10 teams as possible plays when playing the worse 10 teams .
Look for lines at -125 or lower.
Do not play against hot teams nor play on cold teams. I will leave that to you to determine .
It is claimed this hits 50+ units a year. I do not know.
Use this post for info center. I will participate from time to time.
cheers

Yesterday using the do not play against hot teams rule and the do not play-200 teams. Long travel rule wil not come into play.
teams were 4-0 - day before teams were 3-0. Total is 7-0. It was hot for 2 days. That is very good but not long term. About 200 games will tell the story. We kicked out Milw. because Colorado was a very hot team. Wins were Boston, Cinc, Seat and S F
All 4 qualify today but S F not so good. Counter method on Ariz.
You all have the method. top 10 bull pens vs bottom 10 bull pens. ERA must be -100 difference no long travel , no playing against hot teams , no playing on cold teams , no -200 teams.
Do not expect me on the post in future except randomly. I update bull pens from ESPN twice a week. This is not my method but it seems it has potential. Losing streaks are to be expected using this. Good luck to those interested.

Fiasco · 06-11-09, 06:57 AM

this all seems to be common sense...

nothing new or groundbreaking or even interesting

themajormt · 06-11-09, 11:09 AM

I think it is interesting if you WIN!!!

mathdotcom · 06-11-09, 11:15 AM

Streaks = randomness

Look at stats and you will see that there are as many streaks as you would expect. I'd be shocked as hell if no team lost 10 straight in any year. Betting based on streaks is for morons. As for taking top 10 vs bottom 10 teams and looking for -120, so what? You might have the top 10 team's worst pitcher against the bottom 10 team's best pitcher. And the top 10 team's best hitter may be out of the game. You think the market does not account for this?

mathdotcom · 06-11-09, 11:15 AM

PS: There is no such thing as a respected handicapper

therber2 · 06-11-09, 12:25 PM

Originally posted by mathdotcom

Streaks = randomness

Look at stats and you will see that there are as many streaks as you would expect. I'd be shocked as hell if no team lost 10 straight in any year. Betting based on streaks is for morons. As for taking top 10 vs bottom 10 teams and looking for -120, so what? You might have the top 10 team's worst pitcher against the bottom 10 team's best pitcher. And the top 10 team's best hitter may be out of the game. You think the market does not account for this?

Exactly what I was thinking; however, every now and then the "market" makes a line that doesn't make sense. Finding a hole like that could take as much time as scalping. So is it worth it?