Biggest game in a long time

[Bsims]

I normally don't post the results of my simulations, but I've just gotten the biggest overlay I've seen in several years. So while I rarely go over a 2-3 unit wager, tonight I'm laying 5 units on Baltimore to beat Oakland.

[waiverwire]

I normally don't post the results of my simulations, but I've just gotten the biggest overlay I've seen in several years. So while I rarely go over a 2-3 unit wager, tonight I'm laying 5 units on Baltimore to beat Oakland.

What's the line for the game? As you know, I'm not really a sports bettor, but I do model win probabilities for the daily contests, and it looks like a pretty even game to me...slight edge to Baltimore.

[Bsims]

What's the line for the game? As you know, I'm not really a sports bettor, but I do model win probabilities for the daily contests, and it looks like a pretty even game to me...slight edge to Baltimore.

I got Baltimore +108. That makes it pretty much an even game. This was the top line, the rest indicate Oakland with a 52% win probability. Accuscore's simulation was Baltimore at 52%. Don't know why, but mine came up with Baltimore 75%, an extremely high percentage. Anything over 70% is pretty rare.

[jellobiafra]

Interesting. Will be keeping an eye on it. Thanks for posting.

[waiverwire]

I got Baltimore +108. That makes it pretty much an even game. This was the top line, the rest indicate Oakland with a 52% win probability. Accuscore's simulation was Baltimore at 52%. Don't know why, but mine came up with Baltimore 75%, an extremely high percentage. Anything over 70% is pretty rare.

Usually when things are that extreme (and inconistent with what I'd expect) in my models, it turns out that I was tweaking things and screwed something up. For that high a winning percentage, you'd almost NEED to have a terrific starting pitcher against an awful one. In this case, you've got two awful pitchers opposing eachother, so that 75% doesn't really pass the 'smell test'. Did you modify anything in your model lately?

[yani200]

Good Job

nicly done.
What is your name?

[Skalatharx]

Groundhog Day??

I see the mods did some editing

[jellobiafra]

LOL.

If only they would have changed the play to OAK over BAL, this guy would look like a genius now.

[Skalatharx]

LOL.

If only they would have changed the play to OAK over BAL, this guy would look like a genius now.

And Yani wouldn't have a hangover

[pattymayo]

come on Oakland one more out damnit... need you to win by 2, keep this lead!

A's win 3-0 on just two hits, lmao.