Mr. Crumbs Leans for Wednesday 6/3/09

Jimbo42 · 06-03-09, 06:23 AM

CK, you don't like Zimmerman do you? LOL.. can't blame you... I bet on Zimm once.. and they got crushed!

Booked:

Chicago Cubs +115
Chicago Cubs -1.5 (for the big crumbs)

Tampa Bay -1.5 +140

GL

peterpan19 · 06-03-09, 06:25 AM

today I like:
SEA 5 Innings...Vargas is outstanding as of late...and really good at home this year so far...plus Bergesen should struggle on the road and Sea should get to him early...not sure abot the bullpen thats why I will take 5 Innings only

NYM
public will be all over that one today...and maybe it will end up being the sucker bet of the day...but I have to give it a try....

COL
Marquis is outstanding right now...at home or on the road...he is lights out...Moehler had a nice outing but still has a 9+ ERA at home this year...if the Rockies want to win a game in the series they have to do it today...

jellobiafra · 06-03-09, 06:38 AM

OAK/CWS under 9

I posted last night that if these two starters were named Santana and Peavy - with the same numbers and trends attached as we have here - this line would be set at 6.5. I might get burned backing two young guys without much of a body of work to draw from, but all you can go by are the numbers and the trends. And in both cases this is clearly the strongest under opportunity on the board, imo.

hoop guru · 06-03-09, 08:12 AM

A's and whitesox do struggle against lefties. THe A's have never faced whitesox starter and the whitesox have never faced the A's starter. I think this is going to be a pitcher's duel. THe whitesox are missing their big bat in their lineup.

rawkstarr · 06-03-09, 09:18 AM

I like the Texas pic

TheLemonDropKid · 06-03-09, 11:16 AM

LOL!! I came in here earlier and there were dead animals and blood all over the place.......I come in now and it's all sparkly clean with a nice fresh smell. WTF???

peterpan19 · 06-03-09, 11:25 AM

LDK
...nice and clean...thats how I like it...

scratch that mets pick for me...only going with Col and SEA 5 Innings today...just too many injuries for the Mets...

and the thread is back from the private zone...nice

macadams · 06-03-09, 11:52 AM

Giants 1u @ 2.16 - Randy pitching on six days rest, that has really made a difference in the twilight of his career, he got hit around last time v. the Nats and Randy with a chip on his shoulder on the brink of history is going to pitch good I think. Zimmermann has been a bit unlucky so far (FIP 2[!] whole points below his ERA, then again, not sure WSH has fixed all its fielding woes yet either lol). Giants will show up for Randy, they hit ok atm and the bullpen is better than it made us think it is last night. Nice ML, I took it.

MIL 1 u @ 1.94 - Granted FLA's kid has got crazy potential, but at 22 he's sailed a bit too smoothly through the bigs so far. A disciplined correctly playing MIL team will welcome him to the MLB tonight. I don't trust this FLA team, they rarely sustain after two big scoring outings, the team hasn't had a three game win streak in what seems like forever and they go up against good pitcher tonight in Looper.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

June: -2.05u (3-4)

Wilforth · 06-03-09, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

OAK/CWS under 9

I posted last night that if these two starters were named Santana and Peavy - with the same numbers and trends attached as we have here - this line would be set at 6.5. I might get burned backing two young guys without much of a body of work to draw from, but all you can go by are the numbers and the trends. And in both cases this is clearly the strongest under opportunity on the board, imo.

I'm with you!!!

FinchMcCrunkNast · 06-03-09, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I have 3 wagers for today that I like. Here they go and how I came to the decision to ride with them. Good luck as always gentlemen. Protect the sanctity of our thread. Keep the area clean. But if you want a guy who caps his own games and puts in his work in the wee hours of the night and also can give useful commentary with sound reasoning to back it then you've got the right place.

Anyway:

Giants-105 HEAVY
Phillies-102 HEAVY
Texas+155

Here's why:

WHIP

Giants 1.44
Nats 1.48

Advantage Giants

Power Ranking

Giants-172
Nats+172

Actual Line

Nats-120

Advantage Giants Nats are a false favorite

Slugging% last 3 games

Giants .447
Nats .373

Advantage Giants -105 HEAVY

**************************************** *

WHIP

Philly 0.88
Padres 1.37

Advantage Phillies

Power Ranking

Philly-167
Padres+167

Actual line

Padres-120

Advantage Phillies the Padres are a false favorite

Slugging% over last 3 games

Phillies .548
Padres .519

Advantage Phillies

Advatage Phillies -102 HEAVY

********************************

WHIP

Texas 1.01
NYY 1.46

Advantage Texas

Power Rankings

Texas+112
NYY-112

Actual line

NYY-172

Advantage Texas as NYY are severely overvalued

Slugging% over last 3 games

Texas .567
NYY .442

Advantage Texas

Overall advantage Texas+155

CK long time follower but rare poster. Don't know my ass from my elbow from betting. Big contrarian gambler who lets the public make my plays for me. Seems like you are getting a little heated, don't let the haters get to you. You are the ONLY guy I trust when it comes to my money. Appreciate your time, energy and FREE PICKS!

djpremier36 · 06-03-09, 01:04 PM

I don't have enough time to always start a thread...so I will post here. Good Luck!

SIDES

TOR +115

NYM -102

TOTALS

COL/HOU over 9 -128

PHI/SD under 8 -120

TEX/NYY over 10.5 -115

CLE/MIN over 8 -119

ragiche · 06-03-09, 01:41 PM

Booked Plays for me on tonight's game.

Giants ML (5x) Tailing CK.

Bluebirds ML (5x) Tailing Djpremier36

Redleggins' ML (5x)

Brewcrew RL (5x)

If a have a good result on the 1st 4 games i played. I will also be playing the Mariners RL and the Phillies PK in the late cap using the books money of course.

GL

shoebox · 06-03-09, 01:49 PM

Braves
Buccos
Kc

All on the moneyline......

Husker04 · 06-03-09, 01:50 PM

CK - i agree man, don't let all the negative talk get to you. I also trust you with your picks.

My thoughts - with Johnson going for 300 against the Nats and a relatively low line, don't you think that is a great way to lay the wood to book?

macadams · 06-03-09, 01:54 PM

Heavy under trends for that A's/Wsox game, I'm taking a hard, long look at the Rookies and the Philles too. Marquis is really pitching well and Young is just not hitting his spots. I fx'd his starts so far and it seems he has some real troubles missing up and he doesn't seem to be able to lock in that vertical movement. Philles slugging well so with Happ on the mound (whip 1.00) might be some value there.

macadams · 06-03-09, 02:23 PM

Added:

KC 1u @ 2.4 - Longoria out, they have other injuries as well, have looked a bit tepid over a stretch now. Not much of a pitching disparity to discourage me from a good line.
PHI 1u@ 2.04 - I think Young will pitch just well enough to lose.

SoonerGreg · 06-03-09, 03:55 PM

Booked:

Mets ML (-110) - 2x
Giants ML (+100) - 1x
Phillies ML (-110) - 2x
Red Sox RL -1.5 (+115) - 1x

GL everyone!

cocknocker · 06-03-09, 04:53 PM

Midday report

The Giants have a slight reverse movement against them going from -105 to +110 with 72% of bettors on them, but overnight numbers continue to show an advantage at every key statistic that I look at. The Giants are now slugging .470 over their last 3 games after last night's most recent bullpen melt down loss. The Nats bullpen is just as horrid, and the slugging pulled a little closer skewed by last night's numbers. The Nats are now hitting .458. This one will be a squeaker, but Randy Will get his 300th on the road, warrior style. I think that this will be a very low scoring game with the Giants winning 4-3 anyway.

The Rangers of course are getting absolutely no chance by the bettors as they are a minority of 28% to New York's 72%. The high chalk is embarrassing to lay on Andy Pettitte. He is horrid against the tall number as anyone who has ever wagered on his big money games should know. The line has gone up form -172 to -180 on some books. There's a little smart money out there on the Rangers, but mostly people are obviously either taking the Yankees or leaving it alone altogether. Huge coin to be lost by the public if the Yanks were to lose this game. I expected to be on the minority with this wager and I got that for sure.

The Phillies moved the line down from San Diego-120 to San Diego-105 on some books with a 61% showing with bettors. The movement in this case is correct. They are the superior team regardless of who's pitching. The fact that Happ is the real thing is even better. May not be able to get him a this price too much longer.

So all in all, I am hoping that the reverse movement and the "300th Win Hex" won't work against Randy today and that he can bring home the guaranteed win to get him into the Hall of Fame. Bit of a homer pick here as well, but Big Unit, if nothing else, will give the Giants what they need sorely. Deep innings out of their starters. Damn their bullpen stinks. You're almost surprised when they don't give away the lead, lol! If only Barry was still playing!

ram1502 · 06-03-09, 04:59 PM

Loving the RLM on these totals...I'm gonna jump on 'em while I can still get them at a decent price.

-----> Brewers/Marlins O 9.5 +105 (W)

-----> Royals/Rays U 9.5 -115 (W)

-----> Rangers/Yankees O 10.5 -110 (L)

-----> Phillies/Padres U 7.5 -105 (W)

Also on these....

-----> Dodgers RL +110 (Billingsley has been automatic and Garland is Gar-bage) (L)

-----> Twins ML +105 (Nice RLM here. I'm guessing it's a result of Swarzak having better numbers than Lee this season. The public is betting on the name Cliff Lee and not what Lee has done this season, which he has been abysmal. The Indians are a below average team. The Twins are not. Love this play) (L)

-----> Astros ML +100 (Nice RLM here as well. Only 35% on the 'Stros and the line has gone up. Moehler pitched a complete game 7 hitter, only giving up 1 ER, in his last outing. Marquis is good, but I'm going with the contrarian side and taking the home dog with the hot bats.) (W)

GLA

Dexter · 06-03-09, 05:44 PM

Wed 6/3-

mets (ML - 2x) - pelfrey has a 2.18/1.01 in his last 3 and pitched 7 scoreless last year in pitt. ohlendorf has a 6.11/1.58 in his last 3. mets should bounce back off johans loss.
RAIN OUT
redsox -140 (3x - Autobet) - beckett has a whip of .90 in his last 3, while gallaraga has a 1.92

over yanks - pettite left his last start with back stiffness and 5bb's in 5inn. a usual yankee stadium shootout.. cancelled bet with no tex/hamilton and late movement i disliked

showtime2000 · 06-03-09, 06:28 PM

BB plays,

Cincinnati TT over 3.5 (Lohse is 1-2 w/a 5.84 ERA in four career starts against the Reds and ERA over 5 last 3 starts)

Tailed CK on,
SF
Texas

GLA

Dexter · 06-03-09, 06:45 PM

lol....4 runs in 2 innings at the stadium.

shoe - just 1x for you tonight on them 3?

Jimbo42 · 06-03-09, 07:07 PM

just got in from work... heard there were fireworks around here...
Shoe, we are head to head on two games today...aaaarghhh!

Dexter · 06-03-09, 08:35 PM

when i saw the redsox opening line last night at -150, i was certain to see it at 175ish by first pitch tonight. when i came home and saw -140 (with no injuries) i did not feel good about my bet.

10-0 redsox

the moral of this story - if you really like a game, fuk the line movements.

showtime2000 · 06-03-09, 08:39 PM

Well said Dex!

Can someone enlighten me on all the festivities this morning?

Dexter · 06-03-09, 08:45 PM

guys - check out that khaliagent kid - hes once again getting violent over the internet. this time with that member ralphie.

i really do feel bad for him.

Skalatharx · 06-03-09, 09:24 PM

Allot of people are going to give you crap If you post picks, thats just human nature, learning how to deal with it is part of the process.

shoebox · 06-03-09, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

Braves
Buccos
Kc

All on the moneyline......

cocknocker · 06-03-09, 09:41 PM

It will get better shoe tomorrow, shoe. For tomorrow I like

Giants-108 (Cain must pitch not Johnson)
Texas+140 (I have to do it to em again)
Toronto-110
Red Birds-1.5 +120

Pale Hose are dropped

Abrcrom12 · 06-03-09, 09:48 PM

Might be a stupid question.....(I'm new to MLB capping)

If I teased 2 or 3 games, and one of the games has no action, is the bet a push?

Dexter · 06-03-09, 09:50 PM

-the whitesox are 4-15 in games where buerhle has started vs the a's.

i just have no room for this play - but an fyi to all.

Dexter · 06-03-09, 09:56 PM

Thur 6/4-

magic +6 (3x) - lakers need to prove to me that they can beat the 08-09 magic. lesson learned in the cavs/magic series.
_________________

mets (ML) - pelfrey has a 2.18/1.01 in his last 3 and pitched 7 scoreless last year in pitt. ohlendorf has a 6.11/1.58 in his last 3. mets should bounce back off johans loss.

astros (RL - 2x) - rodriguez has a .79/.88 at home and the stros are 6-2 in his 8 career starts vs the rockies.

cards (RL - 2x) - carpenter has a .95/.73 in his last 3 (2.47/.88 career vs cincy) and harang has a 6.61/1.78 in his last 3

over tigers - the dtrain is on the bump and the wiseguys have already popped this total up to 10.

over twins - carmona has a 10.33/2.56 in his last 3, while baker has a 5.21 era last 3 (whip not so bad)

POTVINSUX · 06-03-09, 10:03 PM

Stros do look yummy for thursday night Dex.

POTVINSUX · 06-03-09, 10:03 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

-the whitesox are 4-15 in games where buerhle has started vs the a's.

i just have no room for this play - but an fyi to all.

Very interesting...