Cardinals/Rockies Article

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  • StLouisCards
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-31-17
    • 109

    #1
    Cardinals/Rockies Article
    The Rockies took Game 1. The Cardinals took Game 2. Read on to find out who will win the series finale at Coors Field with our MLB pick for May 28.


    Cardinals vs Rockies


    Introduction


    Yadier Molina has been the most consistent hitter, coming into Sunday’s showdown, as he extended his hit streak to 16 games last night. But the story of this series has been the starting pitching. The four starters so far have allowed just a combined total of six earned runs. The two previous games have flown under the first five-inning run total. Can we expect more of the same from Lance Lynn and German Marquez?


    The Starters


    Lance Lynn is coming off arguably his best performance of the season, pitching eight innings of one-run ball against the Dodgers. But that performance came under significantly different conditions. 1) he pitched that game off of six days rest. His career ERA with as much rest is an insane 2.91 ERA. 2) he pitched that game at night. His career night-time ERA is a 2.90 ERA. 3) The Dodgers were an optimal match-up for Lynn, because they struggle most against finesse pitchers who induce a mixture of fly balls and ground balls, and because they have been slumping, managing just a .662 OPS (this is very low) in the past seven days.


    The Rockies, however, are at their best against finesse pitchers, managing a .811 OPS (this is very high) against them, compared to just .702 against power pitchers. And their OPS is highest against fly ball/ground ball pitchers, .789, compared to just .749 against ground ball pitchers. They have also been hot, batting an insane .929 OPS in the past seven days. Lynn’s career ERA rises from 2.91 with six days rest to 3.32 with four days rest and from 2.90 at night to 4.48 at daytime. I expect an in-form Rockies lineup to hit Lynn hard, who is in a tough spot against a lineup that he matches up poorly against.


    German Marquez seems to have figured things out: he has given up just two runs in his past nineteen innings. As a power pitcher he matches up optimally against the Cardinals—we saw this when Senzatela put forth his best career outing of the season two days ago. Against power pitchers the Cards’ OPS is just .652 compared to .765 against finesse pitchers. I don’t expect the Cards to turn these struggles around when they have been slumping against every kind of pitcher, as their OPS is just .612 in the past seven days. Marquez is also on an amazing run in daytime starts, as he is 3-0 with a 1.20 ERA in his first five day starts, compared to 1-3 with an 8.06 in four night starts. I expect an in-form Marquez to pitch well in the daytime against a cold Cardinals lineup that matches up poorly against him.


    The Verdict:


    The Rockies have the advantage in terms of starting pitching, because Marquez matches up significantly better vs the Cards than Lynn does vs the Rockies. They also have the advantage in terms of having a lineup in strong form. They also have the advantage in terms of bullpen. The Cards’ one consistent reliever, Trevor Rosenthal, threw 33 pitches last night, meaning that he will likely have to sit today’s game out, because the most pitches that he has thrown in a two-day stretch this season was only 27. Even with Rosenthal’s consistency, and despite throwing a relatively low number of innings, the Cards’ bullpen is statistically one of the worst in baseball,while the Rockies have one of the best bullpens. I am backing two plays today.


    Free MLB Pick: Rockies -110 (best line offered: 5 Dimes). Cardinals TT under 5.5 (best line offered: Bet365)
  • StLouisCards
    SBR High Roller
    • 03-31-17
    • 109

    #2
    Thanks to nobody for tailing. People get views on here because they've been here for a long time. I think you'll win more if you bet because of the reason for the pick and not because of who's giving it.

    I Wish You All Happy Betting
    Comment
    • silver39
      SBR High Roller
      • 09-09-11
      • 248

      #3
      was on the under for the game, rough last few innings
      Comment
      • StLouisCards
        SBR High Roller
        • 03-31-17
        • 109

        #4
        I think Marquez lost his concentration after Reynolds missed that popout. It broke his rhythm. It must be really hard, mentally, to pitch after you expect an easy out but dont get one.

        Rosenthal is the only good reliever that the Cards have, but, he threw 30+ yesterday so he wasn't going to pitch again today.
        Comment
        • trobin31
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 01-09-14
          • 9853

          #5
          Lol, tout trying to cry for not getting views and comments.
          Comment
          • StLouisCards
            SBR High Roller
            • 03-31-17
            • 109

            #6
            Who said i'm selling my picks? Lol @ the guy who judges somebody without knowing him.

            I just find it funny what happens to people who try to do something (for free) for others. Especially when they don't build superficial things up like name, image and reputation.
            Comment
            • No coincidences
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-18-10
              • 76300

              #7
              Originally posted by StLouisCards
              Who said i'm selling my picks? Lol @ the guy who judges somebody without knowing him.

              I just find it funny what happens to people who try to do something (for free) for others. Especially when they don't build superficial things up like name, image and reputation.
              Dude, you've posted 6 times. Not really sure why you'd expect a ton of comments, or everyone to fawn all over your picks without any kind of track record.

              This is a gambling forum, not a community support group. You may not be a tout, but you sure do sound like one so far.
              Comment
              • StLouisCards
                SBR High Roller
                • 03-31-17
                • 109

                #8
                Because i'm the only one here who provides any kind of reasoning for his picks? What does track record have to do with that? I could win 20 times in a row and I could have picked the Cardinals today and had some BS reasoning for it and people would have tailed me? That's just what I find laughable. When I really like something I try to post it?

                Truth is, I started writing for SBR, and i'm just bitter that my article wasn't posted. So I posted it in message boards hoping for the views and tails that my hard capping work would have gotten.
                Comment
                • omega
                  SBR MVP
                  • 04-20-14
                  • 1201

                  #9
                  I thought your analysis was pretty solid. Keep it up man
                  Comment
                  • trobin31
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 01-09-14
                    • 9853

                    #10
                    I honestly feel bad for you guys, must be difficult trying to sell losing picks everyday, then wake up each morning trying to convince yourself you're a decent human being.
                    Comment
                    • Comebackkid12
                      SBR Hustler
                      • 05-26-17
                      • 55

                      #11
                      I don't really understand what your issue is here. You have 6 posts and you just expect to make a thread and have an instant following? Post a play, give your reasoning and let it be. If you give well thought info consistently then people will respond sooner or later. The baseball sub-forum is filled with intelligent sharp cappers. Not sure what you're annoyed about.
                      Comment
                      • trobin31
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 01-09-14
                        • 9853

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Comebackkid12
                        I don't really understand what your issue is here. You have 6 posts and you just expect to make a thread and have an instant following? Post a play, give your reasoning and let it be. If you give well thought info consistently then people will respond sooner or later. The baseball sub-forum is filled with intelligent sharp cappers. Not sure what you're annoyed about.
                        He's a tout trying to get noticed, end of story.
                        Comment
                        • StLouisCards
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 03-31-17
                          • 109

                          #13
                          Are you drunk? 1) I'm not selling picks. That's why I quit working for sportscapping.com (donated my earnings to a great charity called Rachel's Challenge...do the same!) You can tell in their free picks those guys have no idea what they're talking about. But they're pros at self-marketing and so they sell picks. 2) I write for SBR. That's not a tout, that's writing for SBR. That's why I write "Free MLB Pick." 3) Both of my picks won lol. Not trying to be arrogant, i'm just extremely annoyed (spent a good part of the night capping this game) that my employers didn't post my article. So an hour before the game I posted the article on every message board. Sorry if I came off differently from what I am. But trobin i'm not apologizing to you, you honestly sound like a bully.
                          Comment
                          • StLouisCards
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 03-31-17
                            • 109

                            #14
                            Originally posted by trobin31
                            He's a tout trying to get noticed, end of story.

                            You're ignorant and stubborn, aren't you? Somebody can gladly post when I offer to sell my picks (I won't, not a tout). Probably a tout yourself, like that silly card game "wolf" where the wolf always accuses others of being the wolf.
                            Comment
                            • omega
                              SBR MVP
                              • 04-20-14
                              • 1201

                              #15
                              To be honest, it's pretty unrealistic to start a brand new account, then complain when nobody tails your first two picks.

                              That being said, I thought the matchup analysis was good and may have done a play if I'd seen this pre-game.

                              Lastly, when you say something is a "free pick", you are implicitly saying there are non-free picks, hence these guys saying you're a tout. Not that I even have a problem with touts as long as they're good. But let's all be real here.
                              Comment
                              • StLouisCards
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 03-31-17
                                • 109

                                #16
                                Ahh ok! I see what you mean now. Yeah SBR told me to write Free MLB Pick at the end of my article, so I just do that. I don't even know if SBR hires touts??? My bad, now I get it, but yeah, I just write "Free PicK" because i'm told to.

                                I just think that people should make bets based on the reasons given for the picks and not for who gives the reasons. It's like... people are ultimately trying to think for themselves and come to a decision, but we're all merely human, discussion is great because it encapsulates a plurality of perspectives, and if someone gives you a reason, you can consider for yourself if you find the pick and the reasons given for it reasonable one or not.
                                Comment
                                • No coincidences
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 01-18-10
                                  • 76300

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by StLouisCards
                                  Because i'm the only one here who provides any kind of reasoning for his picks? What does track record have to do with that? I could win 20 times in a row and I could have picked the Cardinals today and had some BS reasoning for it and people would have tailed me? That's just what I find laughable. When I really like something I try to post it?

                                  Truth is, I started writing for SBR, and i'm just bitter that my article wasn't posted. So I posted it in message boards hoping for the views and tails that my hard capping work would have gotten.
                                  I'm not questioning your post. It was solid.
                                  Comment
                                  • StLouisCards
                                    SBR High Roller
                                    • 03-31-17
                                    • 109

                                    #18
                                    I didn't mean that everyone should fawn over my post. Like somebody else said, there are plenty of intelligent posters here and even on covers. I was just hoping for consideration next to the other intelligent posts, just like my little job. The other guys who post free picks on the site (swingin johnson etc) are also super smart and i'm just happy when my article is posted next to theirs, so that I don't have to go scurrying from message board to message board an hour before gametime.

                                    I just don't get the reality of things...if I post a lot, then people will listen to me even if I accidentally include overtly bad reasoning in a pick? I'd like to think more of people than that
                                    Comment
                                    • Comebackkid12
                                      SBR Hustler
                                      • 05-26-17
                                      • 55

                                      #19
                                      It has nothing to do with quantity. Not sure where you got that from. There are guys that haven't been here long at all and have a following and gained respect because of the quality of what they post and winners they provide. Not sure why you got upset about people not responding to literally your 1st writeup. Patience.
                                      Comment
                                      • fecgp40
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-01-11
                                        • 5750

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by StLouisCards
                                        Thanks to nobody for tailing. People get views on here because they've been here for a long time. I think you'll win more if you bet because of the reason for the pick and not because of who's giving it.

                                        I Wish You All Happy Betting
                                        I thought it was solid analysis and enjoyed reading it. I was leaning towards the Rockies and after reading your post, decided to make them a play. But yes to echo the last poster... patience my friend. I hope you continue to post solid write-ups. Thanks for your effort.
                                        Comment
                                        • omega
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 04-20-14
                                          • 1201

                                          #21
                                          Bettors are simple creatures.. They only care if you win. Put a decent record together and people will tail you all day
                                          Comment
                                          • StLouisCards
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 03-31-17
                                            • 109

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by fecgp40
                                            I thought it was solid analysis and enjoyed reading it. I was leaning towards the Rockies and after reading your post, decided to make them a play. But yes to echo the last poster... patience my friend. I hope you continue to post solid write-ups. Thanks for your effort.

                                            And I am now in a good mood, you make my day. I feel happy knowing that I helped one person cash. Thank you. Have a good betting rest of the betting night.
                                            Comment
                                            • StLouisCards
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 03-31-17
                                              • 109

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Comebackkid12
                                              It has nothing to do with quantity. Not sure where you got that from. There are guys that haven't been here long at all and have a following and gained respect because of the quality of what they post and winners they provide. Not sure why you got upset about people not responding to literally your 1st writeup. Patience.
                                              I did post the article (under a different username, on the website, not the forum) about First 5 under between Rangers/Red Sox, Sale vs Perez. But that's all I've posted recently. Ok, got it.
                                              Comment
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