Dice K back in time for Red Sox to face Johan, Mets

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  • Willie Bee
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-14-06
    • 15726

    #1
    Dice K back in time for Red Sox to face Johan, Mets
    Matsuzaka back in time for Boston Red Sox to face Santana, New York Mets

    Daisuke Matsuzaka returns from the DL to start for the Red Sox in Boston, and Mets ace Johan Santana will make for a tough first opponent as the interleague weekend opens.

    A lot of pitchers would love to have their worst game of the season include a linescore of 7 IP, 4 ER, 0 BB, 7 K and a win. All players, pitchers and position players alike, would like to be in such demand that a team would spend $51 million just to earn the rights to try and sign you to a contract.



    Interleague play invades the MLB schedule this weekend with several geographic rivalries on tap. Among those series are the Buckeye Battle in Cincinnati between the Reds and Indians, the Sunshine State matchup in Miami with the Marlins hosting the Rays, and the Freeway Series out in La-La Land where the Dodgers and Angels meet. But for my money the series with the most intrigue is in Boston with the Red Sox (25-16, +3.10 units) taking on the New York Mets (21-19, -3.50 units).

    The numbers opened with the Mets favored in the -125 to -130 range and Boston drawing the +115, +120 dog price. The total was 8½ or 9, depending where you shop, with the Over generally drawing the chalkier price.

    Just mentioning the Mets and Red Sox together in the same sentence should bring back memories of their Fall Classic from 23 years ago. One can only guess Bill Buckner won’t be checking into the broadcasts to see his fielding gaffe from Game 6 of that World Series rerun ad nausea over the weekend.

    While the ’86 Series might be at the back of my mind for this matchup, at the front of my mind is Friday’s pitching battle to get the series underway with the two players I alluded to in the opening paragraph, Johan Santana and Daisuke Matsuzaka.

    The Mets ace is coming off his worst start of the season with Santana (5-3, 1.36 ERA) working seven frames and allowing four earned in last Saturday’s win over Randy Johnson and the Giants. Despite it being his worst start, Johan and the Mets still picked up the win with a 9-6 triumph.

    In addition to the four earned runs charged to Santana, two more unearned plate crossings also scored during his time on the mound bringing to the number of unearned allowed to eight for Santana this season. The four earnies given up equaled the number of earned runs he had allowed in his previous seven starts.

    Though this will be his first start against the Red Sox as a member of the Mets, Santana faced them several times while pitching for the Twins. The last time he saw them was in May of 2007, and in nine starts against the Sox for the Twins, Minnesota was 5-4. Of note here is Santana has lost all three starts he has made at Fenway, the last coming in Sep ’06, while sporting a rather bloated 6.60 ERA, due in large part to one particularly bad outing in only his second major league start in 2000.

    Matsuzaka (0-2, 12.79) is coming off the DL from a shoulder injury that shut him down just two starts into the season. He looked to be in good shape entering the season after another strong showing in the World Baseball Classic when he helped Japan to its second WBC Championship and earned the tournament’s MVP honors for a second time. Dice K was the winning pitcher in Japan’s semifinals win over the USA, tossing 4.2 innings and allowing two runs.

    He’s never faced the Mets before, though he has seen two of their hitters from their AL days. Gary Sheffield has owned Matsuzaka in 11 at bats, stroking six hits including a home run. Jeremy Reed is 0-for-3 against the Boston righty. That’s it for official MLB stats, though David Wright was 1-for-3 with a double and a K during this spring’s WBC action.

    The two squads come into this one heading in opposite directions with the Mets dropping their last four while the Red Sox are off a big three-game sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays. Both teams are about even in the run differential category this year with Boston checking in at +28 (223 runs scored, 195 allowed) and New York +21 (195-174).

    Jose Reyes is nursing a sore calf and is listed as day-to-day, but with the off day on Thursday I am expecting him to be at short for the start of Friday’s game. It would seem to be a no-brainer that Sheffield will serve as the Mets' DH for this one, especially given his track record vs. Matsuzaka.

    This will be the seventh time the Mets and Red Sox have met for a regular season series. Boston owns an 11-7 edge, including a 3-0 sweep the last time the two met at Fenway in 2006, and the home team has won the series five of the previous six meetings. The only time the visitors won was in 1997, the first year of interleague play, when the Sox took two of three at Shea.

    The weatherman is calling for a 20% chance of some showers, though it shouldn't be anything significant or game-threatening. It's going to be a warm one in Boston today, with temps reaching the 90s, but then it cools off pretty quick into the 50s this evening. Except for the chance of a stray shower, it should be pretty nice at first pitch with a temperature in the mid-to-upper 70s and a NNW wins of 5-10 MPH (in from left-center).

    NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they start games. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com
    .
  • Bread
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 03-16-08
    • 23726

    #2
    NOTE: The W-L records shown for starting pitchers are their team's W-L mark when they start games. Statistical sources for this article were Retrosheet.org, Baseball-Reference.com and ESPN.com
    I don't believe you Bee. I think you pull all these statistics off the top of your head.

    Definitely a great inter-league matchup! Now I just need a WINNA!
    Comment
    • Casperwaits
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-25-06
      • 5042

      #3
      As a Red Sox fan, I know I will not be betting on my team tonight or any night during this series. I feel after the big wins against the Jays, this series has letdown written all over it.
      Comment
      • Willie Bee
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-14-06
        • 15726

        #4
        Well if you have been fading Santana in each of his starts so far, you're only down 0.37 units. I hate taking Matsuzaka in his first start back from the DL. But...

        This will be the first time most of Mets hitters have faced him, Boston will have Justin Masterson to step in if Dice K gets into early trouble -- Can't really expect Matsuzaka to go past five innings anyway -- and with the unknown surrounding Jose Reyes, the Red Sox might be the play in this one. Plus I just like the home team's record in the matchups between the Mets and Red Sox.
        Comment
        • MonkeyF0cker
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 06-12-07
          • 12144

          #5
          Historically, Santana has had some rough outings at Fenway. This is a tough game to bet. You probably won't see Santana at -102 (Matchbook) against a guy with a 12.79 ERA ever again though. Oddly enough, the market is heavily favoring the BoSox right now.
          Comment
          • MonkeyF0cker
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 06-12-07
            • 12144

            #6
            I would be shocked if Reyes were in the lineup today. That is part of the reason for the line movement. He underwent an MRI yesterday revealing tendinitis in his calf. He's attempting to avoid the DL but I don't think you'll see him in the lineup for at least a few games.
            Comment
            • MrMonkey
              SBR MVP
              • 11-09-08
              • 2278

              #7
              Originally posted by Bread
              I don't believe you Bee. I think you pull all these statistics off the top of your head.

              Definitely a great inter-league matchup! Now I just need a WINNA!
              Bread, Willie Bee really knows his ***t! .37 units for a specific situation! Didn't know that source even existed! Wonder if anyone could post a whole list of sources you could go to for these type of stats! Bread, I was thinking of typing something else, but .......

              MrMonkey
              Comment
              • Willie Bee
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-14-06
                • 15726

                #8
                El Pan, you and Señor Chango have actually given me cause to stop and think about something. I've got a ton of provisions lidted in my will, from leaving a chunk of the family ranch to my daughter to having my ashes mixed with foul line chalk at some baseball stadium. But I've never stopped to think about who I should leave my MLB excel data files to. Will have to give it some thought.
                Comment
                • MrMonkey
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-09-08
                  • 2278

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Willie Bee
                  El Pan, you and Señor Chango have actually given me cause to stop and think about something. I've got a ton of provisions lidted in my will, from leaving a chunk of the family ranch to my daughter to having my ashes mixed with foul line chalk at some baseball stadium. But I've never stopped to think about who I should leave my MLB excel data files to. Will have to give it some thought.
                  WB, he's got Robyn!!, what does the poor little Monkey have! Plus do you really want to put the fate of the entire sports gambling world into those hands! It's past noon so he's probably at .08 alcohol content! By 5PM Robyn will be telling him to go brush his teeth!

                  You better give it alot of thought! Willie Bee, did I ever tell you that you are by far my favorite person at SBR!

                  MrMonkey

                  PS Too far back for me, who's the Braves catcher?
                  Comment
                  • unde0087
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 03-27-08
                    • 28952

                    #10
                    Betting this game isn't even worth it. I mean you have Dice K who looked aweful before he went on the DL and now is coming back to face a Mets team that can put up runs in a hurry. On the other side Santana aside from his last start is getting no run support. Santana at -110 is almost a for sure bet for me but not going to play this game.

                    No real edge either way. If Dice k actually pitches well then who knows, Boston is a very good home team but even though sources say Dice K is pitching well in the minors pretty much means nothing until you see him back on the big stage. This game could go either way, especially given the fact that Santana has pitched great and has been taken down by his own players with poor hitting and errors.
                    Comment
                    • CashMoney
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-07-08
                      • 1982

                      #11
                      Let's go mets!!!!!!!!!
                      Comment
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