New Yankee Stadium, Chase Field fueling MLB Overs
New Yankee Stadium, Chase Field fueling MLB Overs
Chicks dig the long ball, and they're loving the 2009 season so far as home runs are flying out of parks all around the majors with new Yankee Stadium and Chase Field in Phoenix leading the way.
Somebody had better run some tests on these baseballs. They might be juiced.
Six weeks into the 2009 MLB season, and the home run is already back in fashion. No fewer than 21 players have already hit 10 homers, a pace that would have all of them over 40 by year’s end. Only two players managed to do that in 2008: Ryan Howard of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies (48) and Adam Dunn (40), who moved from Cincinnati to Arizona in August.
With so many batters dialing long distance, the Over was cashing in at 287-251 as we went to press, or a consistent 53.4 percent. Eighteen of the league’s 30 teams have been profitable for the Over; only five teams have done the same for the Under, and the only one of the five with a winning record is the Kansas City Royals (20-18, Under 20-18). Kauffman Stadium has a park factor of 0.929 for home runs; it helps that Zack Greinke, who hasn’t given up a homer all year, has made five of his eight starts at home.
The most extreme homerun park this year is Chase Field, with over twice as many deep flys (2.099) as the average stadium. The Over is 13-10-1 in Phoenix, but only 2-10-1 when the Diamondbacks hit the road.
Second on the dinger list is the new Yankee Stadium, where people are wondering about things like “wind channels” thanks to a park factor of 1.554, compared to 1.040 last year at the old place across the street. The Over is 10-5-2 in the Bronx and 11-10 elsewhere. And this was with Alex Rodriguez (557 lifetime homers and counting) missing the first 28 games of the season.
The new Mets stadium at Citi Field (1.098) has also been quite accommodating to home-run hitters, but far less so for doubles (0.750), leaving the total split at 9-9-2 when the Mets play at home compared to 10-7-1 away. Scoring might be a little lower now that Carlos Delgado (.914 OPS) is expected out for at least two months following surgery on his hip – roughly the same procedure A-Rod underwent for the Yankees.
Park factors are a bit noisy from a statistical perspective, but they’re still an important part of my Chance-approved approach to overcoming the betting odds. There are forces beyond the control of the batter and pitcher at work here. Every park has its own unique weather signature, from the thin air at Coors Field (1.361 for runs, Over 12-4-1) to the warm air hanging over Petco Park (0.795 for runs, Under 8-8-1).
You also have influential stadium designs like the Green Monster at Fenway Park (1.689 for doubles, Over 10-6-1) and the vast foul ground in Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum (.883 for runs, Over 10-8). When a team’s park factors match up with the results against the total like in Denver and Boston, there’s more confidence that those results will continue.
The starting pitchers are the focal point of baseball handicapping against the spread, and that should remain the case with the Over/Under. I’m interested in games with Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir (eight overs in eight starts) or Scott Feldman of the Rangers (five unders in five starts) on the mound, as long as they keep paying off. Simple conventional statistics make the case for both players: Kazmir is struggling with a 6.97 ERA, while Feldman has a tidy 4.04 ERA, not bad for someone who plays at the Ballpark in Arlington (1.149 for runs).
Since scoring is way up this year, there are dozens of pitchers with excellent Over records, some with surprisingly high ERAs that may or may not come down anytime soon. Here are a few worth considering as the dog days of summer draw near:
Chicks dig the long ball, and they're loving the 2009 season so far as home runs are flying out of parks all around the majors with new Yankee Stadium and Chase Field in Phoenix leading the way.
Somebody had better run some tests on these baseballs. They might be juiced.
Six weeks into the 2009 MLB season, and the home run is already back in fashion. No fewer than 21 players have already hit 10 homers, a pace that would have all of them over 40 by year’s end. Only two players managed to do that in 2008: Ryan Howard of the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies (48) and Adam Dunn (40), who moved from Cincinnati to Arizona in August.
With so many batters dialing long distance, the Over was cashing in at 287-251 as we went to press, or a consistent 53.4 percent. Eighteen of the league’s 30 teams have been profitable for the Over; only five teams have done the same for the Under, and the only one of the five with a winning record is the Kansas City Royals (20-18, Under 20-18). Kauffman Stadium has a park factor of 0.929 for home runs; it helps that Zack Greinke, who hasn’t given up a homer all year, has made five of his eight starts at home.
The most extreme homerun park this year is Chase Field, with over twice as many deep flys (2.099) as the average stadium. The Over is 13-10-1 in Phoenix, but only 2-10-1 when the Diamondbacks hit the road.
Second on the dinger list is the new Yankee Stadium, where people are wondering about things like “wind channels” thanks to a park factor of 1.554, compared to 1.040 last year at the old place across the street. The Over is 10-5-2 in the Bronx and 11-10 elsewhere. And this was with Alex Rodriguez (557 lifetime homers and counting) missing the first 28 games of the season.
The new Mets stadium at Citi Field (1.098) has also been quite accommodating to home-run hitters, but far less so for doubles (0.750), leaving the total split at 9-9-2 when the Mets play at home compared to 10-7-1 away. Scoring might be a little lower now that Carlos Delgado (.914 OPS) is expected out for at least two months following surgery on his hip – roughly the same procedure A-Rod underwent for the Yankees.
Park factors are a bit noisy from a statistical perspective, but they’re still an important part of my Chance-approved approach to overcoming the betting odds. There are forces beyond the control of the batter and pitcher at work here. Every park has its own unique weather signature, from the thin air at Coors Field (1.361 for runs, Over 12-4-1) to the warm air hanging over Petco Park (0.795 for runs, Under 8-8-1).
You also have influential stadium designs like the Green Monster at Fenway Park (1.689 for doubles, Over 10-6-1) and the vast foul ground in Oakland’s McAfee Coliseum (.883 for runs, Over 10-8). When a team’s park factors match up with the results against the total like in Denver and Boston, there’s more confidence that those results will continue.
The starting pitchers are the focal point of baseball handicapping against the spread, and that should remain the case with the Over/Under. I’m interested in games with Tampa Bay’s Scott Kazmir (eight overs in eight starts) or Scott Feldman of the Rangers (five unders in five starts) on the mound, as long as they keep paying off. Simple conventional statistics make the case for both players: Kazmir is struggling with a 6.97 ERA, while Feldman has a tidy 4.04 ERA, not bad for someone who plays at the Ballpark in Arlington (1.149 for runs).
Since scoring is way up this year, there are dozens of pitchers with excellent Over records, some with surprisingly high ERAs that may or may not come down anytime soon. Here are a few worth considering as the dog days of summer draw near:
- Daniel Cabrera, Washington Nationals (5.95 ERA, Over 7-0)
- Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox (7.71 ERA, Over 7-1)
- Ricky Nolasco, Florida Marlins (7.78 ERA, Over 7-1)
- Jamie Moyer, Philadelphia Phillies (8.15 ERA, Over 6-1)
- Aaron Cook, Colorado Rockies (5.71 ERA, Over 5-2)
