Mr. Crumbs Leans for Sunday 5/17/09

[cocknocker]

For today's action I like the following games

Arizona+170
Arizona-1.5 +250 RRL Lowe's not a -200 pitcher/Garland is not a +170 guy. Now that the D-Backs have finally got the monkey off their back, they can actually win two or more in a row now. In my opinion the pitching differential in this game is not a wide as the linemaker would lead you to believe. There are too many crumbs left out there for me to pass up. No doubt that this is the most runs that the D-Backs have scored in a game prior to facing Lowe, who has prett much dominated them. But as I always say, If the books were to make a killing off of this game, what would have to happen? Arizona to win straight up. The consensus is about 67% of the public on the high line for Atlanta. The linemaker knows that everyone else who wants to take the Braves is gonna get some rabbit in their blood and try the runline. No way. The Braves as a team are not worthy of a line this high. I am also going to try the D-Backs -1.5 +250. If I am right, i doubt that they win by a squeaker. It will be a 3 run win. Those bats are still hot from yesterday.

Mariners+120 The kid Vargas is good, Masterson is not. It's really just as simple as that.

Red Birds-1.5 +170 Beat down time for Brewers after good run Albert Pujols and company have been oe of my favorite teams to wager on over the years and this situation calls for a nice 2 run home win in front of the home crowd on a lazy St. Louis Sunday. Pujols is a destroyer. Milwaukee has had a nice run, but it comes to an end today in a big way.

A's+143
A's-1.5 +210 RRL Homer pick and too many crumbs with the public on the other side.. I carjacked Dexter for this pick last night while I was watching some MMA, and laughed about it. I don't know why...Because a guy was getting a nice knee to the chin at the time. Doesn't mix too well with making a thread. Every f*ckin' second counts. It is so much more raw than any sport I have ever seen. I am a green and gold die hard A's fan. So I will be watching this one. They always win when you expect them to to lose. It won't be pretty to the Tigers backers who are lining up in droves to get chicken dinners (88% on the RL and 62% on the moneyline that is too high to begin with.) If the A's were to win this game it would be a nice payday

Giants/Mets under 8.5 Cain and Pelfrey will be the real pitchers duel

[Dexter]

Sunday-

whitesox +1.5/+100 - Autobet play on the underdog at +1.5 with a line value of no >110
astros +1.5/-110 - Autobet play on the underdog at +1.5 with a line value of no >110
a's +130 - cahill has a 2.76 era on the road and a 1.89 in his last 3. gallaraga has a 6.51/1.96 career vs the a's and an 8.64/1.74 in his last 3.
under rangers 10 (2x) Autobet play on the under with both pitchers having sub 1.00 whips in their last 3.
over cards 9 (2x) parra has a 6.05/1.96 on the road, while wellemeyer has a 6.55/1.90 at home.

celtics -3 (5x)

[melincrea]

Tomorrow is a day that I MIGHT go against Halladay.

Law of averages. His record is 7-1 - a bit too good atm. He is up against Floyd, who has lost his last two games. Not saying Floyd is a good pitcher, but let's go with law of averages for him too..

As good as Hallday is, -230 seems like too much to be betting on him at a 7-1 record.. Instead of going against him, I'm going to go with Toronto -1.5 at -108.. seems like a nice price.

I also like CKs picks for the Mariners and Arizona.

Also on:
Celtics -2
Lakers -12
(both hooks)

[macadams]

Minnesota and Arizona, tremendous lines.

[macadams]

Plus Parra, my boy, is pitching today. Above even dough atm. Might hit that. Also, I think it's the end of the road for the Celtics, with so much focus on refs this playoff, I don't know if that edge will be there and they got to be tired now. Am I going to bet on a live-by-the-three team where you can foul Howard in the dying seconds and against Clutch "Truth" in the garden, no I'm not, but may be buying points.

[cohen59]

Mets game is tricky both great pitchers i expected if anything that Jhonson would be the one to give up the runs but i did not expect both of them to do so. I love the way the mets are hitting and with Reyes likely to step back into the lineup today it will be a great game especially with the way the mets are running the bases BOL with all your bets!!

[kaspbart]

A's+143 Homer pick and too many crumbs with the public on the other side

With You at this one. i think oakland is a dog of the day GL

[cocknocker]

And now a word from the heart...

Yesterday morning I got around to answering my PM's. When I answered the first one and attempted to send my reply I got a prompt saying that the PM was full. Long story short I ended up deleting all of them in error.

Also just so you'll know, I carjacked you for that pick Dexter.

[Jimbo42]

A's do look like a play...
Yankees run line possibly...
San Diego split it with ML and run line... to cover the high juice..
Maybe White Sox, B'More and Stros...

Still capping ... will post what I decide to book in a hour and half or so...

GL

[macadams]

With Ankiels not playing seems you have a little more leeway with Pujols.
I always watch Parra, and he's not hanging the changeup like he did in the early goings.
Now that he has the changeup incorporated you gonna see him get to the splitter which is his out pitch more often. And he's got that one nailed down, he'll throw it to anybody.
STL swings aggressively (based on total pitches swung at / pitches inside the plate swung at / pitches outside the plate swung at) and that suits Manny well, because he is a high k/high bb guy.
STL hitters swing at stuff in the strikezone more often than a lot of other teams, curveballstyle/strong breaking stuff like Parra has suits this because a lot of the balls that will end up outside the zone will appear to be strikezone p's. Parra also can show great H. movement.
I also looked at velocity info for four last outings and he's varying better (higher difference/interval between fast and slow pitches). His breaking stuff could keep the STL batters off balance well into the 6th + his fastball is good enough that if he has to throw it... Parra's numbers also trending well.
I'm not completely sold on Cards bats anyway, so far in May not overly impressive - my boy Manny Parra going to carry the day.
Brew Crew in a nice little groove.
I'm parlaying this with CHC, because they absolutely have killed mediocre pitching lately. And I'm throwing in TOR - I just can't see them loosing.
Also playing Brewers -1.5

I had a rough night last night with some HOU unclutchness messing up my NYY HOU combo (bases loaded 4-4 nobody out in the 9th, almighty...) and Cincy answering what until then was a rhetorical question :"Who do you want coming up in t h a t lineup?" which ruined my BOS/CIN play. When Cincy lost in the 16th, I had just done kicking myself for not pounding the Philly OVER which payed even amputaded (!). Well, well - beauty of the baseball season...you have a chance the very next day!

[sweetjones55]

CK, what do you think about Gio Gonzalez? He is a good freind of mine from high school. I think if he gets his walks down and develops a good 3rd pitch he could possibly become a very good starter.

[Dexter]

And now a word from the heart...

Yesterday morning I got around to answering my PM's. When I answered the first one and attempted to send my reply I got a prompt saying that the PM was full. Long story short I ended up deleting all of them in error.

Also just so you'll know, I carjacked you for that pick Dexter.

i didnt quite get the line i was hoping for, but i guess its nice to see RLM on the play.

question for you - thespread.com shows 60% of the public plays on det. is that for the moneyline and the runline?

[Dexter]

CK, what do you think about Gio Gonzalez? He is a good freind of mine from high school. I think if he gets his walks down and develops a good 3rd pitch he could possibly become a very good starter.

i'd like to answer this as well since ive been following him the last few years.

A LHP in that huge stadium is a plus for gonzalez right off the bat. he is clearly working more on his changeup so far in 2009 (havent seen it this year, but last year it was a pretty awful straight change). he really is not throwing his true ++ pitch (curve) all that much in 2009. but thats a good sign to me as he needs a + changeup

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7448&position=P

his velocity is up to 91mph this year, but yeah - his control is the major issue. with a whip of 1.70 combined at both levels in 2009, hes def not ready this year to become a reliable starter. i think at best, you're looking at a future #3 guy. and a lot of that has to do with the stadium. however, if he ever does harness that control, he could become a #2 simply for the fact that hes a lefty (see wandy rodriguez)

[ragiche]

Hello guys,been busy these 3 days.Hope all of you are in good form these days of wagering.These are my plays for today.

Stl RL (2x)

Was RL (2x)

Ari RRL (2x)

Nyy ML (2x)

Oak ML (2x)

Sdg ML (2x)

NBA :

Hou +16 (3pt buy) (5x) Both phil and kobe are really the masters of fixing games.It's gm 7 my friends,and everybody will be on the lakers today,and everybody will think that the outcome will be the same as gm 5.Hell no!

Bos -3 (5x) The refs will be included in this game and they don't want to mess a cavs/celtics preview in the finals.Boston baby!

[macadams]

Florida, LA looked downers last night, resting guys today, FLA get into homestand groove, ok line

Arizona, all Garland needs to do is elevate some of his pitches (missed low too much last time) and throw a couple more of his first pitches for strikes (even if they should end up in play) - he's capable of adjusting this and there is a possibility bats have some residual heat still from last night

5.4 to 1 parlayed, small play.

[cocknocker]

i didnt quite get the line i was hoping for, but i guess its nice to see RLM on the play.

question for you - thespread.com shows 60% of the public plays on det. is that for the moneyline and the runline?

The moneyline only

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

LA Dodgers -133
LA Dodgers -1.5 +125

also small play on:
Oakland +115

GL

[suicidekings]

I carjacked Dexter for this pick last night while I was watching some MMA, and laughed about it. I don't know why...Because a guy was getting a nice knee to the chin at the time. Doesn't mix too well with making a thread. Every f*ckin' second counts. It is so much more raw than any sport I have ever seen.

CK: Off topic, but, any opinions on the lines for UFC 98 next week? I'm on Machida & Hughes, inside the distance. Just wondering if your Crumbs betting strategy carries over to MMA?

[laxdjock]

PHI v WAS o10 -125

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

also small:
Baltimore -117
Houston +180

GL

[G's pks]

Sunday-

whitesox +1.5/+100 - Autobet play on the underdog at +1.5 with a line value of no >110
astros +1.5/-110 - Autobet play on the underdog at +1.5 with a line value of no >110
a's +130 - cahill has a 2.76 era on the road and a 1.89 in his last 3. gallaraga has a 6.51/1.96 career vs the a's and an 8.64/1.74 in his last 3.
under rangers 10 (2x) Autobet play on the under with both pitchers having sub 1.00 whips in their last 3.
over cards 9 (2x) parra has a 6.05/1.96 on the road, while wellemeyer has a 6.55/1.90 at home.

celtics -3 (5x)

Dexter what is autobet?

[Dexter]

Dexter what is autobet?

in each sport, i like to make adjustments after the first few weeks of the season and come up with standard autobets. meaning if it fits my criteria, i make the plays with no thought, emotion involved. i love handicapping a game, but its very difficult to straight pick winners with the emotions that come with sports gambling after a loss etc...here are my 5:

AutoBets

1) i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline

2) i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

3) i will play 3x or more against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.80 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML and the opposing pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts. Move to run line if above 150 but so long that im not laying >110

4) i will play 2x or more on the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in the last 3 starts.

5) i will play 2x or more on the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts

[cocknocker]

I am taking the Lakers/Rockets under 194.5 in basketball HEAVY

[cocknocker]

CK: Off topic, but, any opinions on the lines for UFC 98 next week? I'm on Machida & Hughes, inside the distance. Just wondering if your Crumbs betting strategy carries over to MMA?

I don't know. I have only made like two MMA bets in my life, so I wouldn't be the one to consult on that sport as far as wagering

[TodaysAction]

Dexter what is autobet?

I'm not Dexter, but it's a wager based upon certain data/stats over last 3 (if I recall correctly) games started. Fade or follow, the choice is always your.

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

Atlanta -1.5 +120

I know, I know.... you don't have to say it...

[TodaysAction]

I am taking the Lakers/Rockets under 194.5 in basketball HEAVY

Thanks boss. Off hand you know any MLB teams that haven't been scoring first inning, looking at matching to 0-fers with a that sort of thing. I do have the data/stats on disc but am too lazy right now to go to the other room and get it. You've been there too.

[tsn101]

Tomorrow is a day that I MIGHT go against Halladay.

Law of averages. His record is 7-1 - a bit too good atm. He is up against Floyd, who has lost his last two games. Not saying Floyd is a good pitcher, but let's go with law of averages for him too..

As good as Hallday is, -230 seems like too much to be betting on him at a 7-1 record.. Instead of going against him, I'm going to go with Toronto -1.5 at -108.. seems like a nice price.

I also like CKs picks for the Mariners and Arizona.

Also on:
Celtics -2
Lakers -12
(both hooks)

The Doc is actually 12-12 against the white sox as well. It wasn't a bad time to see your luck and fading him today.

With that being said, everytime Doc pitches, I find it so hard to think he'll lose. I'm a Blue Jay fan so I only bet when I'm confident they will win, I never make a play for the other team.

[suicidekings]

I don't know. I have only made like two MMA bets in my life, so I wouldn't be the one to consult on that sport as far as wagering

Fair enough. Looking down the road, check out Ben Saunders for UFC 99 in June. He's an absolute animal at 6'3", and fighting at 170 lb... http://www.ufc.com/BenSaunders

[showtime2000]

Puck play for today,

Chicago +165 (fading Detroit after a very hard fought 7 games against Anaheim. Look for the young guns on Chicago firing today)




GLA

[ram1502]

Wow Gallaraga didn't even make it out of the first inning against the A's...lol

[laxdjock]

WTF is happening in the OAK game?!

8-6 now...DET.

[Dexter]

WTF is happening in the OAK game?!

8-6 now...DET.

6-0 lead for the a's has vanished...

[melincrea]

The Doc is actually 12-12 against the white sox as well. It wasn't a bad time to see your luck and fading him today.

With that being said, everytime Doc pitches, I find it so hard to think he'll lose. I'm a Blue Jay fan so I only bet when I'm confident they will win, I never make a play for the other team.

I'm also a Jays fan.. hahah he is doing amazing today too bad I only took the run line for 2u! Oh well, a win is a win (not finished yet, but I like the score!)

And about the Oakland game.. yeah, I can't believe they gave up 4 runs two innings in a row.. that's pathetic!

Hope the red birds can pull off what the Tigers have done.

[Jimbo42]

Booked:

San Diego -167
San Diego -1.5 +135 (to even out some of that juice)

GL