DFoster Wednesday Picks/Leans, 130-106-3, +46.97 units

Smith · 05-13-09, 10:38 AM

Love both of them. Good luck!

thegenix · 05-13-09, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by DFoster

CHW White Sox @ CLE Indians
Buerhle vs Lee
CHW/CLE under 8.5 -110 --- 2 units

Dimuro has been an over ump, but after review it's been for good reason. Neither team is killing the ball here and both pitchers have been nothing short of outstanding. Both teams hit lefties pretty well, or have been in the last 10 games but these aren't your standard lefties.

I'm playing the under too. Just for fun, who do you see winning this one?

I think Lee finally gets another win and gives Buerhle his first L. But who knows the Cleveland bullpen can blow it as usual...

DFoster · 05-13-09, 10:42 AM

I like the Indians but wouldn't pay the juice on that. With some of the trends I've seen, the umpires trends, splits, etc, I can't help but see the Indians winning a close one. I thought about making a play for the Sox because I see some value in the line but there's too many things going against the Sox to pull the trigger and make a play here.

thegenix · 05-13-09, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by DFoster

I like the Indians but wouldn't pay the juice on that. With some of the trends I've seen, the umpires trends, splits, etc, I can't help but see the Indians winning a close one. I thought about making a play for the Sox because I see some value in the line but there's too many things going against the Sox to pull the trigger and make a play here.

Same here. I'd love to play the Indians but the juice is too high.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 10:52 AM

ATL Braves @ NY Mets
Reyes vs Niese
NYM ML -128 --- 1 unit
NYM RL +159 --- 1 unit

Niese looked solid in his last outing and dominated the Braves in his only start against them in his career. The Mets are CRUSHING lefties at a .340 clip this season. With Reyes being below average and struggling, I look for the Mets to send him packing rather early today.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 11:04 AM

ATL Braves @ NY Mets
Reyes vs Niese
NYM TT over 5 +121 --- 1.5 units

I have a strong inclination that the Mets are going to jump on Reyes today. With the Mets hitting lefties as well as they are, I was leaning on taking this team total earlier but when I see that the weather in NY is pretty humid with the wind heading directly out to left field between 9-13 MPH, I see a high scoring game for the Mets today.

laxdjock · 05-13-09, 11:47 AM

I'm on the fence about NYM TT, mostly because citifield is a pitcher's park. It takes a lot for the ball to get out.

I'm looking to lay 1 more unit......though I think I'm going to take the RL again.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by laxdjock

I'm on the fence about NYM TT, mostly because citifield is a pitcher's park. It takes a lot for the ball to get out.

I'm looking to lay 1 more unit......though I think I'm going to take the RL again.

I don't think HR will need to be hit for the Mets to score 5 or more against Reyes today. His stuff is questionable, he's been throwing pretty badly, and the Mets are hitting over .400 against lefties recently. Just my thoughts...

laxdjock · 05-13-09, 11:54 AM

Good pt.

I doubled down on NYM -1.5.

GL to us!

DFoster · 05-13-09, 12:04 PM

Parlay of the day:

CIN RL, NYM ML, TOR ML, CHC ML
1 unit to win 10.03 units

I've gotten away from my for fun parlays...

DFoster · 05-13-09, 12:09 PM

NY Yankees @ TOR Blue Jays
Pettitte vs Richmond
TOR ML -105 --- 2 units

Richmond has been solid while Pettitte's last two outings have been a struggle. The Jays have been amazing at home and have been shelling left handers. The Yankees' line is always inflated making this close to even money...and I'm going to take it.

whatisit · 05-13-09, 12:18 PM

Any thoughts on Reds TT under 4? Cueto has been lights out, only once out of his 6 starts has a team gone over 4, and DBacks offense has been real cold this year..

DFoster · 05-13-09, 12:21 PM

SD Padres vs CHC Cubs
Young vs Lilly
CHC ML -151 --- 2 units
CHC/SD under 11.5 --- 3 units

I'm staying on the Ted Lilly at home train. He's dominated at Wrigley this year and will be throwing against a poor Padre offense. The under total here is really nice. 11.5 is reserved for terrible pitchers throwing in Texas with the wind blowing out. Having a total of 11.5 with two solid starters in Young and Lilly almost makes me think trap...but I'm taking it. The win is blowing out to center at close to 20 MPH but there should be some rain tonight. The only thing I'm worried about is the game being delayed and each team taking the starter out and throwing in a long reliever when the game starts back up.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by whatisit

Any thoughts on Reds TT under 4? Cueto has been lights out, only once out of his 6 starts has a team gone over 4, and DBacks offense has been real cold this year..

It's pretty comical because that was my next play...

CIN Reds @ ARI DBacks
Cueto vs Augestein
ARI TT under 4.5 -139 --- 2 units

I have made some cash on Arizona unders and TT's and see no change tonight. Cueto has no hitter potential against this triple-A offense.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 12:25 PM

Current card for today/tonight:

CHW/CLE under 8.5 -110 --- 2 units
CIN ML -127 --- 2 units
NYM TT over 5 +121 --- 1.5 units
NYM ML -128 --- 1 unit
NYM RL +159 --- 1 unit
TOR ML -105 --- 2 units
CHC ML -151 --- 2 units
CHC/SD under 11.5 --- 3 units
ARI TT under 4.5 -139 --- 2 units

Parlay:
CIN RL, NYM ML, TOR ML, CHC ML
1 unit to win 10.03 units

whatisit · 05-13-09, 12:34 PM

Originally posted by DFoster

It's pretty comical because that was my next play...

CIN Reds @ ARI DBacks
Cueto vs Augestein
ARI TT under 4.5 -139 --- 2 units

I have made some cash on Arizona unders and TT's and see no change tonight. Cueto has no hitter potential against this triple-A offense.

Good to know we're on same page...What book do you use that let you bet on that alternate line? Or is that the only line available on that book.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by whatisit

Good to know we're on same page...What book do you use that let you bet on that alternate line? Or is that the only line available on that book.

I use matchbook.com and it was the only line available right now...

DFoster · 05-13-09, 02:42 PM

Wow...I'm worried about the CHC/SD total number. I took it but I'm starting to think more and more that the line is baiting people into the under.

EIther way, solid start with the NYM TT hitting and the CHW/CLE under coming in.

laxdjock · 05-13-09, 02:53 PM

Nice on the TT, my NYM -1.5, 2 units is FUBAR'd.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by laxdjock

Nice on the TT, my NYM -1.5, 2 units is FUBAR'd.

2 run HR would get it done...it's happened before, that's for sure.

laxdjock · 05-13-09, 03:07 PM

I was looking up to see if that would work....well, I guess odder things have happened!

DFoster · 05-13-09, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by laxdjock

I was looking up to see if that would work....well, I guess odder things have happened!

That'll get it done. I'm crossing my fingers too...

DFoster · 05-13-09, 04:56 PM

Current card for today/tonight:

CHW/CLE under 8.5 -110 --- 2 units - WIN +1.82
CIN ML -127 --- 2 units
NYM TT over 5 +121 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.82
NYM ML -128 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
NYM RL +159 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
TOR ML -105 --- 2 units
CHC ML -151 --- 2 units
CHC/SD under 11.5 --- 2 units ---- reduced from 3 units
ARI TT under 4.5 -139 --- 2 units
STL ML -106 --- 1 unit ---- added

Parlay:
CIN RL, NYM ML, TOR ML, CHC ML - LOSS - 1.00
1 unit to win 10.03 units

contemplating:

KC ML, LAD ML, COL/HOU over, MIN ML, BOS ML

Vreston · 05-13-09, 05:14 PM

Hi D!
I've been reading your thread for a while and I have to admit you're really good!

I agree with a lot of your picks today but I won't be betting on all of them. So far I started out strong with a win with Atlanta and I'm waiting for Washington to finish it off for a good start.
I'd like your thoughts on the Kansas City @ Oakland game. Bannister is 3-0 with a 1.48 era. We have a first place team in KC with a 4 game losing streak playing against a last place A's team that lit their kid up last night. I don't think KC will fall in five straight. What do you think about this one? It's not one of your plays so it makes me think.

Also any comments about the Marlins-Brewers game? I like the Marlins a lot in this one.

BOL to you!

DFoster · 05-13-09, 05:24 PM

Originally posted by Vreston

Hi D!
I've been reading your thread for a while and I have to admit you're really good!

I agree with a lot of your picks today but I won't be betting on all of them. So far I started out strong with a win with Atlanta and I'm waiting for Washington to finish it off for a good start.
I'd like your thoughts on the Kansas City @ Oakland game. Bannister is 3-0 with a 1.48 era. We have a first place team in KC with a 4 game losing streak playing against a last place A's team that lit their kid up last night. I don't think KC will fall in five straight. What do you think about this one? It's not one of your plays so it makes me think.

Also any comments about the Marlins-Brewers game? I like the Marlins a lot in this one.

BOL to you!

I like KC and just haven't made a play on it officially. I like the better team to come out with some fire after getting killed last night. Bannister is better than Outman right now and figure he'll right the ship tonight. The Marlins/Brewers game is tough. I know that Nolasco had his best outing his last time out but 1 quality start on the season is nothing short of pitiful. Looper has been under-rated so far this year but is coming off two sub par outings. I'd probably lean toward Florida tonight but I don't see much of an advantage toward either side and will be sitting this one out.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 05:30 PM

HOU Astros @ COL Rockies
Hampton vs Marquis
HOU/COL over 10.5 -112 --- 2 units

The trends in this one strongly push the over...and I don't believe in either starter tonight. The Stros are putting up runs against righties, the Rockies are currently crushing lefties...Let's cash this one.

diogee · 05-13-09, 05:35 PM

Good luck DFoster...like the Reds play. Lean Tor as well with the lineup the Yanks will have to wheel out there.

Vreston · 05-13-09, 05:46 PM

Thanks for your opinion.

In the Cubs game, maybe the under 6.5 in the first 5 innings would be a safer play with the weather forecast being what it is. What do you think?

DFoster · 05-13-09, 05:48 PM

Originally posted by diogee

Good luck DFoster...like the Reds play. Lean Tor as well with the lineup the Yanks will have to wheel out there.

Thanks. I'm hoping to continue winning after a good start to the week.

DFoster · 05-13-09, 05:50 PM

Originally posted by Vreston

Thanks for your opinion.

In the Cubs game, maybe the under 6.5 in the first 5 innings would be a safer play with the weather forecast being what it is. What do you think?

I would agree with you on that one. Unfortunately, the line went down after I put in my wager and I can't back out of the wager without loosing a bit of juice, so I'm sticking with my full game line. If I had to do it over again, I'd easily go with the first half 6.5 line though. I can say that the under in this game scares me...but I went with my first thought and made a play. Good luck!

DFoster · 05-13-09, 10:21 PM

I'm hoping this Cubs delay turns into a victory..win the ML and the under...cmon!

jellobiafra · 05-13-09, 11:03 PM

I think totals push in a shortened game D, regardless.

whatisit · 05-13-09, 11:40 PM

AZ Under hits in a close one

DFoster · 05-14-09, 12:27 AM

CHW/CLE under 8.5 -110 --- 2 units - WIN +1.82
CIN ML -127 --- 2 units - WIN +1.57
NYM TT over 5 +121 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.82
NYM ML -128 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
NYM RL +159 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
TOR ML -105 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
CHC ML -151 --- 2 units - WIN +1.33
CHC/SD under 11.5 --- 2 units - WIN +1,71
ARI TT under 4.5 -139 --- 2 units - WIN +1.44
STL ML -106 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
HOU/COL over 10.5 -112 --- 2 units - WIN +1.79

Parlay:
CIN RL, NYM ML, TOR ML, CHC ML - LOSS - 1.00
1 unit to win 10.03 units

Tonight's results:
7-3, +6.48

Parlay:
0-1, -1.00