My Friday card

mcbaseball10 · 05-08-09, 02:15 PM

Damn Jello, quite the card. Whatever works for you is all that matters. Hope you can clean house on your big plays. GL tonight.

Smogs · 05-08-09, 04:13 PM

Jello - i follow your picks but i noticed on your 5 unit florida play that you got them at -110? i have them at +105 at paddypower in the uk, i don't know if you can get that in the U.S but it helps to shop around, especially with 5 units on it

jellobiafra · 05-08-09, 04:32 PM

I know, I know. The only book I have money in right now is The Greek. Great, reliable book.... Worst. Lines. Ever.

I should just bite the bullet and have them transfer it all to BetJam where I can at least get 10 cent lines. The Greek is even worse for a player like me with action all over the board on any given night. I'm sure I'd be doing incrementally better at any other book just from the vig reduction. Frankly, I've just been too lazy to do anything about it. Is it easy and quick to do a book to book transfer I wonder? I don't want my money in no man's land for more than a couple hours.

Thanks for the heads up though. Good luck tonight.

jellobiafra · 05-08-09, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Ok. Coming clean here. I like action. And by like action I mean - I play a lot of frigging games. I'd like to say this is an anomaly below, but it's not. I play like this pretty much ever night - minus the 3 big plays. That's rare. I also like to tail. Make no secret of it. I use a few cappers from the service pays board, a couple from this board and a couple from the NBA board. I also cap my own baseball games and include them on the card. If my picks differ with anybody that I tail then I go with mine. If you see your picks below chances are you influenced them at least. I know some people disagree with this style of gambling but it's working for me. I lost about 6 units 3 nights ago. I won 13 two nights ago. I won 1 last night (ONE with about 40 units in play). You get the point. It can be volitale but I'm grinding out a profit.

So without further adieu, here is my crazy Friday night card:

5 units

TOR (ML) -117
NYY (-1) -133
FLA (ML) -110

3 units

Magic (-3.5) -120 -- bought a hook

2 units

Magic 1H (-2) -110
Rockets 1H (.5) -110
TAM (ML) -115
FLA (u11) - 110
DET (u9) -110
Magic (o188) -110

1.5 units

DET (ML) +105
Lakers (u194) -110
PHI (-1) -125
TAM (o10) -110

Adding at 9:51 pm EST:

KC (ML) -115

1 unit

SEA (ML) +160
WAS (ML) +113
KC (ML) -120
STL (ML) +100
CHC (ML) +106
TEX (o11) -110

That's it. Looks like 42 units out there. Decent chance I will add a halftime bet on one or both NBA games. Can't wait to get home from work and grab a cold one. It's been a long week.

Good luck everyone.

For the lurkers who like to keep tabs on these things (I'm talking to you G):

Adding 1.5 units to my Royals play. The additional wager was added at -115.

jellobiafra · 05-08-09, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

5 units

TOR (ML) -117
NYY (-1) -133
FLA (ML) -110

3 units

Magic (-3.5) -120 -- bought a hook

2 units

Magic 1H (-2) -110
Rockets 1H (.5) -110
TAM (ML) -115
FLA (u11) - 110
DET (u9) -110
Magic (o188) -110

1.5 units

DET (ML) +105
Lakers (u194) -110
PHI (-1) -125
TAM (o10) -110

Adding at 9:51 pm EST:

KC (ML) -115

Adding at 11:05pm EST:

LAL 2H (-.5) -110

1 unit

SEA (ML) +160
WAS (ML) +113
KC (ML) -120
STL (ML) +100
CHC (ML) +106
TEX (o11) -110

That's it. Looks like 42 units out there. Decent chance I will add a halftime bet on one or both NBA games. Can't wait to get home from work and grab a cold one. It's been a long week.

Good luck everyone.

For the lurkers who like to keep tabs on these things (I'm talking to you G):

Adding 1.5 units to my Royals play. The additional wager was added at -115.

[/quote]

Adding Lakers 2H (-.5) -110 for 1.5 units

jellobiafra · 05-09-09, 12:00 AM

Results

Originally Posted by jellobiafra
5 units

TOR (ML) -117 (loss)
NYY (-1) -133 (win)
FLA (ML) -110 (win)

3 units

Magic (-3.5) -120 -- bought a hook (win)

2 units

Magic 1H (-2) -110 (win)
Rockets 1H (.5) -110(loss)
TAM (ML) -115 (loss)
FLA (u11) - 110 (push)
DET (u9) -110 (win)
Magic (o188) -110 (win)

1.5 units

DET (ML) +105 (win)
Lakers (u194) -110 (loss)
PHI (-1) -125 (win)
TAM (o10) -110 (push)

Adding at 9:51 pm EST:

KC (ML) -115 (loss)

Adding at 11:05pm EST:

LAL 2H (-.5) -110 (win)

1 unit

SEA (ML) +160 (loss)
WAS (ML) +113 (win)
KC (ML) -120 (loss)
STL (ML) +100 (loss)
CHC (ML) +106 (loss)
TEX (o11) -110 (loss)

Alright. So that's pretty much how I do things. Usually a little lighter card than that, but still way more than most people would recommend playing. I used to be a proponent of flat betting. The above should be a lesson to anyone who doesn't believe in the virtues of weighted wagering. Of course, if I were betting flat I wouldn't even have been playing those 1 unit wagers, so I guess you could make a case for flat betting using that angle. Still.....

Checking the account now I see that I am up ~ 4.75 units for the evening. Hope everyone else was at least equally successful.

I don't know if I'm going to go through the effort of doing this every day, but I wanted to put it out there for at least one night so people could get a glimpse for how roll - like it or hate it. I might post my card again tomorrow. We'll see.

Good luck and good night.

jellobiafra · 05-09-09, 12:17 AM

One more thing I meant to mention. I firmly believe that if you are going to tail people like I do on about 3/4 of my picks, you should spread it out among a few cappers. It limits your exposure. Find a games or two that several people you trust (maybe including yourself) are backing and play those a little larger. Then spread the rest of your plays out a little. I don't recommend playing as many as I do unless you have a real firm grip on who your tailing, what their tendencies are, how they've been the past day or two...etc. But I really think if you're going to play like I explained that I play, lower your unit size and spread the liability around to several cappers. Chances are if you have picked reliable people to tail (which you shouldn't be tailing anyone unless you've figured this much out) then you have a good chance of bad day being canceled out by another's good one. You're rarely going to see 4 or 5 have horrible days on the same day, and every once in a while 2 or 3 of them will blow up for you and give you a +13 or so unit day like I mentioned above.

mcbaseball10 · 05-09-09, 12:20 AM

Good day jello. Take the money wherever you can get it.

jellobiafra · 05-09-09, 12:33 AM

Believe it or not, this way has proven to be a lot more consistent in terms of limiting losses than when I've tried to play it straight. Plus I have trouble controlling the chase impulse when I only have 1 or 2 games on a night and that 1 game loses. I've found that just booking a card like this before the action begins practically eliminates my chase impulse completely. There's almost always opportunity later in the night.

And all the picks have valid reasoning by solid handicappers, whether they're mine or not.

Plus, it's proving to be kind of profitable (although a bit of a grind).