DFoster Friday Picks/Leans, 115-95-3, +41.36 units

cohen59 · 05-08-09, 10:44 AM

Which ones have you played so far DF if you dont mind me asking??

jellobiafra · 05-08-09, 11:16 AM

Good to see we are on the same side for a few of these. Opposite on a couple, but that's gonna happen.

I loaded up on TOR and FLA. Also on that DET under medium and small on DET ML. Very small on SEA, KC, WAS, STL, and CHC. Medium on TB, FLA under, and NYY RL.

Good luck D!

DFoster · 05-08-09, 11:16 AM

Plays currently made:

FLA Marlins @ COL Rockies
Nolasco vs Hammel
FLA ML +109 --- 2 units

Nolasco has dominated the Rockies through his career and Hammel has been hit hard in his 2 career innings against Florida. I'm ready for Nolasco to right the ship here. There are some trends going against the Marlins tonight but I have a hunch that Nolasco flashes some of the form he showed in 2008...and the line is great. A very talented Nolasco vs a gas can in Jason Hammel...at a positive line, I'll take it.

WAS Nationals @ ARI DBacks
Martis vs Petit
WAS first half ML +116 --- 1.5 units

Martis is better than Petit and throwing pretty well currently. Petit has been terrible...and Arizona is 0-5 when he starts. With Arizona's coach getting canned last night, they're in shambles and I expect them to come out and lose tonight. With the Nat's bullpen being so shaky, I'll sacrifice +4 to take the 5 inning line.

KC Royals @ ANA Angels
Meche vs Palmer
KC ML -115 --- 1.5 units

Palmer is over achieving and the Royals have been looking great. I think Meche starts turning it around tonight.

TOR Jays @ OAK A's
Richmond vs Outman
TOR ML -105 --- 2 units
TOR TT over 4.5 +102 --- 1.5 units

The Jays are playing well and have faired well on the road compared to the A's struggles at home. Richmond has looked good while Outman hasn't. As a lefty, I expect the Jays to send him to the club house quickly as they've been crushing lefties to the tune of .386 in their last 5 games.

More write ups to come
TOR

laxdjock · 05-08-09, 11:49 AM

I'm with you on FL (I'm considering the RRL).
WAS is an interesting play (I like the rationale, but they are so up and down).
TOR TT I really like.

DFoster · 05-08-09, 01:04 PM

SEA Mariners @ MIN Twins
Jabuskakas vs Baker
SEA TT over 4.5 +132

Baker, who I think will eventually turn it around, has been terrible. The Mariner offense isn't anything to count on but I like the line and the total here.

DMB40 · 05-08-09, 02:55 PM

Yankees are a LOCK today. -154 is a steal

DFoster · 05-08-09, 03:11 PM

Originally posted by DMB40

Yankees are a LOCK today. -154 is a steal

I would say the Yanks are never a lock. With the circus that's currently going on in NY, I'm tempted to take the plus money and go with the O's. Good luck with your play though.

yisman · 05-08-09, 03:16 PM

I agree. Yankees are never a lock. Be careful with them and I would really advise against taking them as heavy chalk.

DFoster · 05-08-09, 03:17 PM

WAS Nats @ ARI DBacks
Martis vs Petit
ARI TT under 5 -105 --- 1.5 units

The DBacks total in their last 8 games: 3,3,1,2,3,4,5,1
Martis is a nice young pitcher who has the ability to shut down this struggling team.

DFoster · 05-08-09, 03:22 PM

ATL Braves @ Phil Phillies
Reyes vs Hamels
PHI TT over 5 -113 --- 1.5 units

The Phillies are hitting lefties very well right now and have absolutely demolished Reyes in his appearances. I'm going with a relatively hot team to put up some runs tonight.

DFoster · 05-08-09, 03:40 PM

TEX Rangers @ CHW White Sox
Harrison vs Contreras
TEX/CHW over 10.5 -115 --- 2 units

Harrison is trash. Contreras is trash. Texas line up is solid. Sox lineup is heating up. The Cell is a hitters haven. Trash pitchers + TEX offense + Sox heating up + bandbox park = runs...lots of them.

DMB40 · 05-08-09, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by yisman

I agree. Yankees are never a lock. Be careful with them and I would really advise against taking them as heavy chalk.

-154 isn't heavy chalk.

this line should be over -200. Tex and CC always have bad starts to the season. over 5 runs tt is a great bet too.

DFoster · 05-08-09, 04:29 PM

Originally posted by DMB40

-154 isn't heavy chalk.

this line should be over -200. Tex and CC always have bad starts to the season. over 5 runs tt is a great bet too.

The Yanks are 7-8 on the road and 0-5 in their last 5. They're 0-4 in their last 4 against a right handed starter, and 0-7 against the AL East. The O's are hitting .289 against lefties after a win...and yesterday's win was a nice one. I'm not saying the Yanks won't win...I expect them to...but with ARod coming back, there is going to be so much more on the minds of the ego maniac Yankee players.

Mr Handicapable · 05-08-09, 04:32 PM

Votto/Phillips both supposedly out again for the Reds? I like Over 8.5 even without them! The Reds scored 6 off of a similar pitcher last night in Looper that had a good record vs the Reds previously! Cueto got absolutely hammered by the Cards last year in his rookie year so I don't think he'll be as dominant as his last 2 outings vs a pitiful Pittsburgh lineup and the Cubs @ Wrigley with the wind blowing in at 25 MPH!

MexicanStallion · 05-08-09, 04:34 PM

Originally posted by Mr Handicapable

Votto/Phillips both supposedly out again for the Reds? I like Over 8.5 even without them! The Reds scored 6 off of a similar pitcher last night in Looper that had a good record vs the Reds previously! Cueto got absolutely hammered by the Cards last year in his rookie year so I don't think he'll be as dominant as his last 2 outings vs a pitiful Pittsburgh lineup and the Cubs @ Wrigley with the wind blowing in at 25 MPH!

Votto and Phillips are both out again. Same Reds lineup from last night

cohen59 · 05-08-09, 04:35 PM

D.. Im tailing u on a bunch of picks tonight were goin over on the cws tex game i love that but if were gonna play that card we got pick a TT over for either Tex or CWS im thinking Tex what do you think??

DFoster · 05-08-09, 04:39 PM

Originally posted by Mr Handicapable

Votto/Phillips both supposedly out again for the Reds? I like Over 8.5 even without them! The Reds scored 6 off of a similar pitcher last night in Looper that had a good record vs the Reds previously! Cueto got absolutely hammered by the Cards last year in his rookie year so I don't think he'll be as dominant as his last 2 outings vs a pitiful Pittsburgh lineup and the Cubs @ Wrigley with the wind blowing in at 25 MPH!

You make some good points. When I saw that Votto and Phillips were out, I dropped the idea of the Red ML. The over is a possibility but I really like Cueto...and he was completely different in his rookie season. He's out there throwing with complete confidence this year and I expect him to continue to be successful throughout the year. Piniero is pitching over his head for sure and I'm just waiting on him to give up 6+ runs. I'm probably going to lay off of this game..

DFoster · 05-08-09, 04:41 PM

Originally posted by cohen59

D.. Im tailing u on a bunch of picks tonight were goin over on the cws tex game i love that but if were gonna play that card we got pick a TT over for either Tex or CWS im thinking Tex what do you think??

I would definitely lean toward Texas of the two.

DFoster · 05-08-09, 04:44 PM

I'm waiting for an ump on the CLE/DET game...leaning toward the under there.

TEX TT over is a lean but I want to check the ump.

DFoster · 05-08-09, 04:55 PM

Not nearly as confident on the SEA over now that I find Merriwether behind the plate...a huge under guy with a big zone. Oh well, I'll roll with it and hope Baker reverts back to his first few starts.

cohen59 · 05-08-09, 06:29 PM

Hey, DF you gonna post your final play card for the night like you usually do or are you still waiting on a few games?

DFoster · 05-08-09, 07:29 PM

Final card for now...unless I add something on a whim:

FLA ML +109 --- 2 units
FLA RRL +153 --- 1 unit
WAS first half ML +116 --- 1.5 units
KC ML -115 --- 1.5 units
KC RRL +149 --- .5 units
TOR ML -105 --- 2 units
TOR TT over 4.5 +102 --- 2 units --- upped it from 1.5
SEA TT over 4.5 +132 --- 1 unit
ARI TT under 5 -105 --- 1.5 units
TEX/CHW over 10.5 -115 --- 2 units
PHI TT over 5 -113 --- 1.5 units

DFoster · 05-09-09, 01:33 AM

FLA ML +109 --- 2 units WIN +2.18
FLA RRL +153 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.53
WAS first half ML +116 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.74
KC ML -115 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
KC RRL +149 --- .5 units - LOSS -.50
TOR ML -105 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TOR TT over 4.5 +102 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SEA TT over 4.5 +132 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
ARI TT under 5 -105 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.43
TEX/CHW over 10.5 -115 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
PHI TT over 5 -113 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.33

5-5, -.79 units

Things looked great at one point...obviously that fell apart. Seattle's offense is a complete fade until they right the ship and I'm still baffled by Toronto and their lack of offense tonight.