Mr. Crumbs Leans for Friday 5/9/09

[cocknocker]

Alrighty then I have been waiting for an opportunity to take the much improved Verlander, and what better way to take him than when he is getting crumbs going up against the mighty Cliff Lee, one of my favorite pitchers. Detroit has had very hot bats. I'll ride the hot handand get the money.

Detroit+105

There is a false favorite in this game. Enough said.

Florida-105 HEAVY

Cole Hamels coming back off of the DL is expceted to just wipe out the Braves? Whatever. I will take Reyes and the dog in this matchup as I don't think tht Hamels will be on top of his game right away. I'm no fool however, I will take the runline and pay the vigorish that is 5 cents on the dollar more than I usually will play. But with a 2 run cushion it is worth the price.

Braves+1.5 -135

As Jimbo pointed out the A's finally broke their losing streak, and with that usually comes a couple of wins. I am gonna get into the car with Jimbo and let him drive while I drink. Toronto is justin a bad spot to get the win. It's Friday night and the McAfee will be rollin'

A's -103

[cocknocker]

Hey, where's Radar?

[shoebox]

Yankees, and angels

Free chicken dinner on the yanks books want joe public on the other side

[cocknocker]

Please tell me that you are taking the Yankos-1.5. A stated I just can't lay -150 or more ever. Now the Angels are right in my price range obviously. It has good movement too....

[shoebox]

RL ck, sabathia has worn thin and public perception would be to fade I'm all over this one heavy it's the play of the day!!

[cocknocker]

Okay, there we go! Now that I can dig for sure homes

[melincrea]

5 game losing streak... I am with you! (no longer huge play; moderate instead)

[sweetjones55]

Marlins at +105

[kmarinouofm]

marlins are a steal at +105... coming off those hard fought losses against the braves.. its time to get some ground back against the rockies in that launching pad they call a stadium in the mile high..
Nolasco is 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA in two career starts versus the Rockies.
Hammel has a 9.53 ERA in two Coors Field outings this season

Vegas wants you to think the fish are on the path to their loosing ways...But to be honest top to bottom this team is solid on offense and have 6 guys who will have 20+ homers this year... I think the team over 5 (projected) might also be worth a stab...

it also doesn't help the fish's record by playing in the toughest devision in the national league..

[kmarinouofm]

CK you love going against lee .. well i don't blame you it has been a cash cow this year. you know what the best part about going against lee this year.. the odds makers still give him respect and make the opposing team totals nice and low!! The game total is at 9 , now the odds aren't that heavy with cleveland at -125 (vegas starting to figure out lee is slumping) so the team total is probably going to be 4 for Cleveland. If it is 3.5 tomorrow at your book I would consider this as a strong play...

[melincrea]

Toronto -106 (2.5 units)

Taking this after analyzing this season:
-the Jays have gone 8-1 after coming off of a loss (9-1 if you count the win after the two game losing streak)
[did a little more research; another trend applies to the above - the games after a loss have been in the same city so therefore the team did not have to travel.. tonight, they will be traveling.. I sense danger]


NYY -154 (2.5 units now)

5 game losing streak - why not? (of course, losing streaks may extend much further... but I'll take my chances!)


Hockey
Washington Capitals (2 units)
Boston Bruins (2 units)
(both teams have a strong history with their opponents this season)

[Vince Carter]

what do you think about washington tomorrow?

i think martis is a better pitcher than petit and i think washington has hotter bats than the dbacks right now

i think washington is a steal at +121

[Vince Carter]

also, fading brad penny at -115 seems very enticing

[danrman]

lee may get revenge from losing to verlander in detroit.. watch line mvmnt
like the washington pick but ariz could win first gm. since they just dumped their manager

[BCaldwell32]

Hey CK, I'm not so sure about those hot bats in Detroit. I just watched Buehrle pitch 8 innings giving up 0 runs and 1 hit with 2 walks. They ended up with 3 hits after getting 2 on in the 9th off Jenks. Cliff Lee is bound to get on track very shortly considering he has nasty stuff and what better time than a revenge game since they just lost 3 to 1 to Detroit just 5 days ago with the same 2 pitchers. I'm just giving you something to think about so good luck with whatever you decide.

[peterpan19]

picks for today:
NYY -1
they have to win a game sooner or later and why not today...CC was always pretty good against Baltimore...plus A-Rod returns today

DET
Verlander is back...

STL
...Cin is banged up and Cueto never pitched well against STL...I am taking the dog in that one

TOR
..Richmond is the real deal...he is really good and today he faces an A's team that is well not so good this year... give me the btter pitcher and the better Offense today

Alos thinking about taking the Cubs and TX team total to go over...neither Bush or Jose look too solid...

GL

[jellobiafra]

Love TOR tonight.

[Jimbo42]

not so fast..... Oak broke that losing streak ...game one of the series.. Toronto could be in a bad spot here....

[Jimbo42]

okay boys.... CK you might like this one....
Teams that score only 1 run two games in a row, come back and get the money the next game regardless of price (5-2 so far this year)
Get them big crumbs with Seattle tonight....
Yessiree!

[cocknocker]

Damn that's good Jimbo. I just can't go against the Twins after having lost so many tough games in a row. I am sure that they will be blasting that ball against the turf and legging out infield singles tonight for Gardenhire. We'll see how it turns out. What I will do is throw them in on a small parlay that pays big if it hits and ain't missed if it doesn't.

[cocknocker]

Now however, the Oakland thing, that is worth playing straight! I will give it a go!

[cocknocker]

Dexter, it's 62-38 and counting for the month since 5/1/09. I don't know why you let idiots talk you out of something that I sponsored. If I sponsor something it's money, dog. That's a nice clean 24 units in the positive and no homework involved. All of those fools with excel sheets and theories and tweaks and all of the other bullshit don't know how to make money like I do.

[ebbearsfb1]

what is that your talking about ck??? i need to get in a some of that action... ????

[repski]

Dexter, it's 62-38 and counting for the month since 5/1/09. I don't know why you let idiots talk you out of something that I sponsored. If I sponsor something it's money, dog. That's a nice clean 24 units in the positive and no homework involved. All of those fools with excel sheets and theories and tweaks and all of the other bullshit don't know how to make money like I do.

CK,
I've been playing it...but the VIG is so high it eats into the winnings severly on losses....it's not a clean 24 units..

[Whiplash]

ck, in reference to above ^^, you doing only games with + odds, or all games?

[Vreston]

CK so you think we should stay off the Yankees -1.5 today?
I already took the Yankees ML today in a small parlay with the Marlins and Detroit.

[dillzs]

CK - new to playing MLB this year. Been trolling this thread since opening day and wanted to say you've been a big help in learning to cap MLB games.

Definitely are some haters out there, but I never seen you once tell anyone to tail you. Gotta make your own decisions and do your own DD.

One question, I can't find a reliable site that shows the percentage of plays on a side. I see you often often say "so and so has 70% of money on them" ... can you give me a good site to watch this.

[JayRow]

"

[chucksmith]

Alrighty then I have been waiting for an opportunity to take the much improved Verlander, and what better way to take him than when he is getting crumbs going up against the mighty Cliff Lee, one of my favorite pitchers. Detroit has had very hot bats. I'll ride the hot handand get the money.

Detroit+105

There is a false favorite in this game. Enough said.

Florida-105 HEAVY

Cole Hamels coming back off of the DL is expceted to just wipe out the Braves? Whatever. I will take Reyes and the dog in this matchup as I don't think tht Hamels will be on top of his game right away. I'm no fool however, I will take the runline and pay the vigorish that is 5 cents on the dollar more than I usually will play. But with a 2 run cushion it is worth the price.

Braves+1.5 -135

As Jimbo pointed out the A's finally broke their losing streak, and with that usually comes a couple of wins. I am gonna get into the car with Jimbo and let him drive while I drink. Toronto is justin a bad spot to get the win. It's Friday night and the McAfee will be rollin'

A's -103

Your ass is a trip. I will be in the back seat with a couple of deuce deuces and a hogs leg.

Working on my plays now

[cocknocker]

CK,
I've been playing it...but the VIG is so high it eats into the winnings severly on losses....it's not a clean 24 units..

First you have to play all of them flat and stop paying for vig if you choose to do it the pure way. If you read the thread I have been going the other way a lot also. Whenever I see a line that is -140, I play the reverse. I am a purist when it comes to collecting crumbs. Just get your wins flat rate and leave the money alone

[cocknocker]

CK so you think we should stay off the Yankees -1.5 today?
I already took the Yankees ML today in a small parlay with the Marlins and Detroit.

Hell naw, Radar is hot so if he says it's good, then it's good!

[ragiche]

My plays for tonight's game:

Nyy -1.5 (8x) (W)

Stl ML (5x) (L)

Hou -1 (5x) (W)

Sea ML (5x) (L)

Nym RL (2x) (W)

Tex/Chw Over 10.5 (2x) (L)

[thegenix]

No one is on Pitt as the underdog against a rookie pitcher for the Mets?

[cohen59]

I wanna bet the yankees but on sportsbook there still (-155) ML i know there do for a win but im not quite sure if i want to pull the trigger just yet the line still seems to be moving in the yankees favor and i dont trust them -1.5 just becasue they have burned me numerous times in my short baseball betting career!

[SoonerGreg]

CK,
I found some crumbs you might be interested in. Capitals are +150 tonight @ the Penguins. The Capitals are the #2 seed for a reason and they have the A.O. They did go seven games in 1st round but rallied to win the last three games of that series and have averaged 3.3 goals a contest since then. With that said, the Penguins are really good at home but they go 1-3 against Washington during the regular season. All this being said, I just can't pass up +150 ML crumbs for the Capitals.