MLB - Monday, 8/29/16

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Play Monday

Twins / Indians OVER 9.5 +105 (Heritage)


YTD: 376-385-20, +1.35

[Fabiodog]

Good work to get back positive again

[pilebuck13]

Pirates close to a play T?

[trobin31]

60%
Cubs -205
Tigers -185
Indians -177
Rangers -160
Nationals -152

Yankees and Astros were borderline for me at -147 & -145 respectively.

Pirates, Rays, Phillies & Yankees show best value on lines for me.

[PorkChop]

Must love this over.

Price is 9 flat. Vegas never even released a 9.5

Interesting to see what kind of series plays out here. Minnesota was relentless a few weeks ago in Cleveland, lowest scoring game was 11 total. And Bauer shelled 13-5 in his start.

Mon, Aug 1	@ Cleveland	W 12-5	41-64
Tue, Aug 2	@ Cleveland	W 10-6	42-64
Wed, Aug 3	@ Cleveland	W 13-5	43-64	Duffey (6-8)	Bauer (7-5)		17,176
Thu, Aug 4	@ Cleveland	L 9-2	43-65

[LT Profits]

Must love this over.

Price is 9 flat. Vegas never even released a 9.5

Interesting to see what kind of series plays out here. Minnesota was relentless a few weeks ago in Cleveland, lowest scoring game was 11 total. And Bauer shelled 13-5 in his start.

Mon, Aug 1	@ Cleveland	W 12-5	41-64
Tue, Aug 2	@ Cleveland	W 10-6	42-64
Wed, Aug 3	@ Cleveland	W 13-5	43-64	Duffey (6-8)	Bauer (7-5)		17,176
Thu, Aug 4	@ Cleveland	L 9-2	43-65

Price is NOT 9 flat, it is 9 Over -120 or -125. I think 9.5 +105 is the better bet.

[LT Profits]

60%
Cubs -205
Tigers -185
Indians -177
Rangers -160
Nationals -152

Yankees and Astros were borderline for me at -147 & -145 respectively.

Pirates, Rays, Phillies & Yankees show best value on lines for me.

I have more than you do and it seems my %s are higher than yours across the board. That is an indication of a light day for me (I may have ZERO sides) with so many big model odds on my end.

[PorkChop]

08/28/16 05:16:54pm	+167	-185
08/28/16 05:16:54pm	9 Over -115 Under -105

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Washington 66% (-194)
Miami 61% (-156)
Cleveland 66% (-194)
Boston 66% (-194)
Detroit 66% (-194)
Cubs 69% (-223)
Texas 62% (-163)
Houston 61% (-156)
Angels 60% (-150)

[LT Profits]

08/28/16 05:16:54pm	+167	-185
08/28/16 05:16:54pm	9 Over -115 Under -105

I have no lower than -120 at any of my books right now.

[PorkChop]

I have no lower than -120 at any of my books right now.

Interesting, Offshore bought to 9.5,

All 9's -115 across the board right now here, (still 7am, books open 8am, lets see by afternoon where it sits).

[Rich Boy]

Pinny has Over 9 -110, Over 9.5 +113

[LT Profits]

Interesting, Offshore bought to 9.5,

All 9's -115 across the board right now here, (still 7am, books open 8am, lets see by afternoon where it sits).

OK total came down off shore in last 20 minutes. Even see a 9o-105 at Heritage now. Oh well.

[Nateboogy]

I got over 9 -110

[CanuckG]

Thoughts on NYY/KC line?

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on NYY/KC line?

I have Yankees 55% (-122), value may be shifting based in line movement.

[rollie_t651]

Let's cash, LT!

[CanuckG]

I have Yankees 55% (-122), value may be shifting based in line movement.

How are the Royals such big home dogs? Pineda struggles on the road.

[LT Profits]

Pineda grades out MUCH better than Gee, I know for a while that Pineda had the biggest FIP vs. ERA disparity in the Major Leagues and he is probably still among the leaders as of right now at 3.86 vs. 5.02. His xFIP is even better at 3.40. BTW, he has a 3.35 xFIP at home and 3.45 xFIP on the road, so I am not all that concerned about his more extreme mainstream variances. Royals have edges in lots of other areas though, which is why I do not have Yankees favored more. Still, no value either way right now per model.

[MMA_Oracle]

@LT congrats on getting back into the black!

any thoughts on Dodgers/Rockies? I'm wanting to play the Rockies. Dodgers just won 2 important series and I feel like this might be a letdown spot

[LT Profits]

@LT congrats on getting back into the black!

any thoughts on Dodgers/Rockies? I'm wanting to play the Rockies. Dodgers just won 2 important series and I feel like this might be a letdown spot

Valid point about the letdown, but I get Dodgers 58% (-138). That letdown angle could be the very reason for the RLM.

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Additions

5 MLB Plays Monday

Nationals / Phillies UNDER 9 +105 (Heritage)
Rays / Red Sox UNDER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
Twins / Indians OVER 9.5 +105 (Heritage)
Pirates / Cubs OVER 7.5 -105 (Bookmaker)
Yankees / Royals UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)

[MMA_Oracle]

Valid point about the letdown, but I get Dodgers 58% (-138). That letdown angle could be the very reason for the RLM.

thanks!

[Nateboogy]

What about rays under 9 +105?

[LT Profits]

What about rays under 9 +105?

That is fine, but no less than +105

[Nateboogy]

Awesome. Thanks.

[RavensFan2k3]

Pineda grades out MUCH better than Gee, I know for a while that Pineda had the biggest FIP vs. ERA disparity in the Major Leagues and he is probably still among the leaders as of right now at 3.86 vs. 5.02. His xFIP is even better at 3.40. BTW, he has a 3.35 xFIP at home and 3.45 xFIP on the road, so I am not all that concerned about his more extreme mainstream variances. Royals have edges in lots of other areas though, which is why I do not have Yankees favored more. Still, no value either way right now per model.

penetrate i hope you're wrong, took KC

[pilebuck13]

What you got for total in colorado

[Fieldysnuts44]

Way to keep plugging along,and get back to positive units.Hope you finish the year strong,I will be tailing along.Thanks for your efforts.

Fieldy

[pilebuck13]

T you got a amazing number on the Cubs game pal I got +100 on ov 8 now at 8.5 -115 at bookmaker

[LT Profits]

penetrate i hope you're wrong, took KC

I have nothing to be "wrong" about. as I said no value either way. I was just explaining why Yankees were road favorites.

[LT Profits]

What you got for total in colorado

9.8 but I resisited the urge to bet the Under.

[tradeout]

9.8 but I resisited the urge to bet the Under.

Are you following your urge or the ''model''?

[eddycash]

Royals under 8 no good now?

[LT Profits]

Royals under 8 no good now?

Nope, no good