Anyone using Tony Chow's NFL system in MLB?

[rkelly110]

how well did this system do 4 u in the nba?

Sorry I don't have a record. I believe there was a thread in the NBA forum. They were betting from two losses on,
because it's rare to have 3 losses in a row in the NBA. (betting from two losses would work in MLB also)

[rkelly110]

u dont use martingale correct?

It's worse than martingaling because of the lower odds.

[rkelly110]

Today's bets.

SF (A) +RL Winner!
TEX (A) ML Winner!

[rkelly110]

No system plays for today.

[thekoreanmang]

Interesting system. Maybe it'd be helpful for everyone/thread to keep track of records per bet level. Good job on hitting your bets last night. I update a different thread for another system and it won its Bet C last night with TB +1.5. I'll have to keep a closer eye on your thread too. Keep up the good work!

[rkelly110]

Interesting system. Maybe it'd be helpful for everyone/thread to keep track of records per bet level. Good job on hitting your bets last night. I update a different thread for another system and it won its Bet C last night with TB +1.5. I'll have to keep a closer eye on your thread too. Keep up the good work!

Thanks man, you too. I'll check yours out.

[rkelly110]

Huge card for today. May we hit 'em all on the A.

COL (A) +RL
SD (A) +RL Winner!
MIN (A) +RL
CLE (A) ML Winner!
SEA (A) +RL Winner!

[tallwhiterussian]

Rkelly, would Toronto be considered an A bet today since they lost two in a row?

[rkelly110]

Rkelly, would Toronto be considered an A bet today since they lost two in a row?

Only keeping track of 3 losses. Lost 3 in a row by 2 runs or more if the dog. 3 in a row if the fav or a mixture of the two.

Toronto is playing Minn who has 3 losses. If I had to, I'd bet them ML.

You can start a chase from 2 losses, but I'd stick with a top 5 division team which Toronto is.

[rkelly110]

Today's plays.

COL (B) +RL early game Winner!
MIN (B) +RL early game Winner!
BOS (A) ML Winner!

[rkelly110]

Today's play is BAL (A) +RL or ML depending on your book. Early game. Winner!

Record recap since posting.

Straight bets is 27-13 67.5%

System bets:

A 16-10 61.5%
B 10-2 83.3%
C 1-1 50%

System is 16-1 94%

[rkelly110]

Today's play is MIL (A) +RL. Winner!

[TechnicalTrader]

Today's play is BAL (A) +RL or ML depending on your book. Early game. Winner!

Record recap since posting.

Straight bets is 27-13 67.5%

System bets:

A 16-10 61.5%
B 10-2 83.3%
C 1-1 50%

System is 16-1 94%

Quick question, what was the size of those two C bets compared to the A bets? I'm guessing they were around 8-9 times larger than the A bets, due to declining lines... I see your only C bet loser was a CHC/LAA matchup where LAA were heavy underdogs. Chasing a strong favorite could get pretty expensive, no?

Thanks for the work you are putting in!

[rkelly110]

No problem. The work is pretty easy.

Let's do some math for a hypothetical chase. I'll use a ML fav.

An A bet fav of 1.84 (-120) decimal odds to win $5 is to bet $5.94. 5/.84= $5.94 Lose.

B bet would be to win $5 + $5.94= $10.94. Odds are 1.65 (-167) 10.94/.65= $16.83 Lose

C bet would be to win $5 + $5.94 + $16.83= $27.77. Odds are 1.50 (-200) 27.77/.50= $55.54 Win

If you lose, yes, you are about right, roughly 10 times your initial investment.

Most of the plays are on the + RL. Some of those odds are pretty low, so yeah it can get expensive.

[TechnicalTrader]

No problem. The work is pretty easy.

Let's do some math for a hypothetical chase. I'll use a ML fav.

An A bet fav of 1.84 (-120) decimal odds to win $5 is to bet $5.94. 5/.84= $5.94 Lose.

B bet would be to win $5 + $5.94= $10.94. Odds are 1.65 (-167) 10.94/.65= $16.83 Lose

C bet would be to win $5 + $5.94 + $16.83= $27.77. Odds are 1.50 (-200) 27.77/.50= $55.54 Win

If you lose, yes, you are about right, roughly 10 times your initial investment.

Most of the plays are on the + RL. Some of those odds are pretty low, so yeah it can get expensive.

Thanks, so you're going to have to hit at least 90% of the picks, correct? Have you looked in to what the system would've done, had you've not gone to Bet C? Man, winning 8 series and then watching all of your profit's disappear in one series would really suck.

[rkelly110]

Thanks, so you're going to have to hit at least 90% of the picks, correct? Have you looked in to what the system would've done, had you've not gone to Bet C? Man, winning 8 series and then watching all of your profit's disappear in one series would really suck.

Up a few. Post 46. Straight bets are 28-13 68%. (counting that last win)
You would treat every bet (A B or C) as a straight bet and still come out ahead.
B bets are at 83.3% if you just wanted to play them, but you'd be missing out on the A's.

[rkelly110]

Straight bets 29-13 69%

System bets.

A 18-10 64%
B 10-2 83.3%
C 1-1 50%

Today's plays are:

MIA (A) +RL
SEA (A) +RL Winner!

(thanks for the points koreanmang!)

[TechnicalTrader]

Up a few. Post 46. Straight bets are 28-13 68%. (counting that last win)
You would treat every bet (A B or C) as a straight bet and still come out ahead.
B bets are at 83.3% if you just wanted to play them, but you'd be missing out on the A's.

WOW, no real reason to chase if you ask me. The risk/reward isn't really worth it...

[rkelly110]

Today's plays are:

MIA (B) +RL
CIN (A) +RL

Straight bets 30-14 68%

System bets

A 19-11
B 10-2
C 1-1

System is 19-1 95%

[thekoreanmang]

Today's plays are:

MIA (B) +RL
CIN (A) +RL

Straight bets 30-14 68%

System bets

A 19-11
B 10-2
C 1-1

System is 19-1 95%

Good job. -205 and -155 are just so expensive, though.

[rkelly110]

Both losers yesterday. Disappointing. Sorry.

Today's bet is MIA (C) +RL Winner!

Straight bets is 30-16 65%

System bets:

A 19-12
B 10-3
C 1-1

[rkelly110]

Nice win yesterday on Miami. Heavy underdog wins outright playing away. Hope you cashed.

Today's plays:

CIN (B) +RL or ML depending on your book. Winner!
SD (A) +RL Winner!

Straight bets, 31-16 66%

System bets:

A 19-12
B 10-3
C 2-1

System is 19-1 95%

I profited 18.6 units last month.

[rkelly110]

No plays today. Good, need a break. Stress sometimes is overwhelming with chasing.
Nice wins yesterday. SD a huge dog wins outright and CIN brings in the B bet with a SU win.

Straight bets, 33-16 67%

System bets:

A 20-12
B 11-3
C 2-1

System is 20-1 95%

[rkelly110]

Today's play is STL (A) ML early game. Winner!

[TechnicalTrader]

Today's play is STL (A) ML early game.

Great job thus far. Been reading up on the JM system, seems to be pretty legit despite it's simplicity!

[rkelly110]

Great job thus far. Been reading up on the JM system, seems to be pretty legit despite it's simplicity!

Made some nice money using his systems/ picks. Taking emotion out of betting by using a proven system is by
far better than dart throwing. This has proven itself with the NFL, NBA and as you can see MLB. Will have to see
how it works in other sports.

[rkelly110]

Today's plays:

PHI (A) +RL Early game Winner!
PIT (A) +RL or ML depending on your book. Early game.

Straight bets: 34-16 68%

System bets:

A 21-12 63.6%
B 11-3 78.5%
C 2-1 66.6%

System is 21-1 95%

[TechnicalTrader]

Looking in to using this on the WNBA. As soon as I have a minute or two, I'll post some results.

[rkelly110]

Today's play is PIT (B) +RL

Straight bets: 35-17 67%

System bets:

A 22-13
B 11-3
C 2-1

Thanks for the points TT. SBR doesn't have matchup stats for the WNBA. Waiting to see what you have.

[rkelly110]

Another Tony Chau (JM) system for the NFL. Run a 3 game chase against the last Super bowl winner.

In other words, last years Super bowl winner (Denver), will lose SU or ATS within the next 3 games.
Advice: buy at least the hook (.5). If the spread is 3, buy the extra 1/2 point to 3.5 etc.

Disclaimer: These systems were given to me for free from the author.

[TechnicalTrader]

Today's play is PIT (B) +RL

Straight bets: 35-17 67%

System bets:

A 22-13
B 11-3
C 2-1

Thanks for the points TT. SBR doesn't have matchup stats for the WNBA. Waiting to see what you have.

After looking at only three teams, I noticed three C-bet losses and that with only 17 A and B-bet wins. I'd say, you would either have to wait for a 4 game streak or not even touch the WNBA. I'll take a longer look at it later this week.

[TechnicalTrader]

KHL:


4 Game streak, 3 Game Chase are the rules I am using. Chasing a 3 game streak will lose you money very, very quickly in the KHL. I guess because the league's talent isn't evenly distributed...

Western Conference:

CSKA, 2015:
a) 3-0
b) 1-0
c) 3-0
Jokerit, 2015:
a) 1-0
b) 1-0
c) 1-0 (Spengler Cup in between)
Lok Yaroslavl, 2015:
a) 0-0
b) 4-0
c) 0-1
Sochi, 2015:
a) 0-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0
Dyn Moscow, 2015:
a) 6-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0
SKA St. Petersburg, 2015:
a) 1-0
b) 0-0
c) 0-0
Nizhny, 2015:
a) 3-0
b) 0-0
c) 0-0
Bratislava, 2015:
a) 6-0
b) 0-0
c) 1-0
Din Minsk, 2015:
a) 1-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0
Zagreb, 2015:
a) 4-0
b) 0-0
c) 1-0
Sp Moscow, 2015:
a) 1-0
b) 1-0
c) 1-0
Dimano Riga, 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 0-0
c) 1-0
Podolsk, 2015:
a) 1-0
b) 1-0
c) 1-0
Cherepovets, 2015:
a) 5-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0

52-1 so far.... The one loss would've been for about 23.6 units. So the western division alone brought home 28.4 units. Let's see if the eastern conf performed as well...

[TechnicalTrader]

The eastern division looked even better!

49-0

Avangard Omsk, 2015:
a) 1-0
b) 0-0
c) 1-0
Metallurg Magnet., 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 2-0
c) 0-0
Sibir Novo, 2015:
a) 1-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0
Salavat Ufa, 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 0-0
c) 2-0
Bars Kazan, 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 0-0
c) 0-0
Vladivostok, 2015:
a) 1-0
b) 0-0
c) 1-0
Yekaterinburg, 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0
Niznekamz, 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 0-0
c) 0-0
Barys Astana, 2015:
a) 4-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0
Tractor Chelyab., 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0
HC Yugra, 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 2-0
c) 0-0
Amur Khaba., 2015:
a) 4-0
b) 1-0
c) 0-0
Lada, 2015:
a) 2-0
b) 1-0
c) 1-0
Metall Novo., 2015:
a) 5-0
b) 2-0
c) 0-0


Again: These are the rules I used:

1) Wait for winning or losing streak of 4 games

2) Bet A: Bet against the trend (if team just loss 4, bet for a win) BUT(!!!) Always play the puckline (asian handicap) with a return of 1 unit.

3.a.) IF Bet A wins, stop and wait for next streak of 4 games
3.b.) IF Bet A loses, bet on the puckline wagering enough to win back Bet A plus one unit. This is Bet B!

4.a.) IF Bet B wins, stop and wait for next streak of 4 games
4.b.) IF Bet B loses, bet on the puckline wagering enough to win back Bet A, Bet B and plus one unit. This is Bet C!

IF Bet C losses, STOP!

Your average line will be somewhere between -280 and -115, bet accordingly! DO NOT bet more than 2% on your A-Bets. A C-Bet loss will clear out your bankroll!

Anyone want me to post it in the NHL forum? It's basically the JM system, just only betting on pucklines. this will keep you out of a lot of trouble but will also reduce some of your profit. I personally would prefer to play it safe when I have risk a good 20-30 units per series!

[rkelly110]

Good job TT!

[TechnicalTrader]

Good job TT!

Thanks, I think I'll move it over to the NHL forum. Doesn't really belong in your thread.