MLB - Wednesday, 6/29/16

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Wednesday

Marlins / Tigers OVER 9.5 -110 (Heritage)
Yankees -1.5 +115 (Heritage)
Royals +154 (5 Dimes)
Royals / Cardinals UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 227-248-9, -14.94

[mikefan1034]

Royals?!!!!!! Seriously LT man I'm fading this x100

[mikefan1034]

Royals just lost Cain and are a terrible road team

[mikefan1034]

Yankees -1.5? Are u serious? Beltran just got hurt he's out their best hitter. Do u even pay attention or just look st fricken numbers. Man this guy is on straight fade alert. Nobody tail him he's a loser and trying to get people to lose money. Tanaka has a horrible home record and era what are u thinking

[LT Profits]

Royals?!!!!!! Seriously LT man I'm fading this x100

Yankees -1.5? Are u serious? Beltran just got hurt he's out their best hitter. Do u even pay attention or just look st fricken numbers. Man this guy is on straight fade alert. Nobody tail him he's a loser and trying to get people to lose money. Tanaka has a horrible home record and era what are u thinking

This is one of the rare times that the Royals are actually overlays, they are usually overrated. This might be the first time I have played Kansas City all year.

Yankees is simply a pitching mismatch.

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Boston 66% (-194)
Cubs 62% (-163)
Toronto 63% (-170)
Arizona 63% (-170)
Yankees 70% (-233)
Cleveland 67% (-203)
Washington 71% (-245)

Do I dare bet the Reds? We shall see. Value seems to be there but leaning toward passing as of now after last night's marathon.

[funnyb25]

Model sucks

[eddycash]

Any thoughts on Oakland tonight?

[PorkChop]

Nothing on TB +1.5 -110 & ML +154?

Moore 3-0 day time.

[LT Profits]

Model sucks

Model was fine last night, my luck sucked.

That could actually be seen as a good sign though. I would have been 5-1-1 last night if games ended in middle of the eighth inning, what were the odds of that turning to 2-5? Things like that just don't happen every night, especially the 5-run 15th inning.

[Antibet]

Model sucks

Hey, funny, have you are ever seen a penguin, a horny penguin with a very large penis, curiously staring at you?

[funnyb25]

Model was fine last night, my luck sucked.

That could actually be seen as a good sign though. I would have been 5-1-1 last night if games ended in middle of the eighth inning, what were the odds of that turning to 2-5? Things like that just don't happen every night, especially the 5-run 15th inning.

If it ain't broke, don't fix it

Meaning

If something is working adequately well, leave it alone.

So in the case it's the exact opposite...one should fix something that is broken

[LT Profits]

Any thoughts on Oakland tonight?

Too close, model has 53% (-113). The way that line is trending, there is a chance Giants could have value later on, although I hate betting Peavy. I never liked him, all that he has done his entire career is take advantage of big ballparks.

[eddycash]

Oak is hitting like crazy lately, line was -103 and just moved. All the money is on giants so the 80/20 rule applies here

[LT Profits]

If it ain't broke, don't fix it

Meaning

If something is working adequately well, leave it alone.

So in the case it's the exact opposite...one should fix something that is broken

I am saying nothing is broken, I would have taken the positions I was in last night every time. I fully expect to be in the black before season's end, we are not even halfway yet and -15 units is nothing considering I probably still have over 600 plays left this year.

[LT Profits]

Oak is hitting like crazy lately, line was -103 and just moved. All the money is on giants so the 80/20 rule applies here

But line moved too much, past model number.

[funnyb25]

Model was fine last night, my luck sucked.

That could actually be seen as a good sign though. I would have been 5-1-1 last night if games ended in middle of the eighth inning, what were the odds of that turning to 2-5? Things like that just don't happen every night, especially the 5-run 15th inning.

GTFO of here....the games have 9 innings minimum for a reason...between this comment and ur bad luck victim cries, this is as amateur as it gets...come on man, you are better than this...

[eddycash]

Tampa bay looks interesting

[eddycash]

Let's look for a live bet for oak if giants take the lead early

[LT Profits]

Nothing on TB +1.5 -110 & ML +154?

Moore 3-0 day time.

In a word, NO. See 60%ers, Price -194. If anything, Red Sox are undervalued chalk.

[eddycash]

Worried about kc but gonna tail it I think lol

[intermission]

I honestly think Tanaka sucks thsi year, probably gonna get rocked by rangers

[LT Profits]

GTFO of here....the games have 9 innings minimum for a reason...between this comment and ur bad luck victim cries, this is as amateur as it gets...come on man, you are better than this...

You totally missed my point, I was asking what are the odds that FOUR games would swing the wrong way from that point on. One loss is almost understandable the way my year is going (lol), two OK. But four is ridiculous.

But when all is said and done and after all the brutal late-inning meltdowns I have had this year (can I WIN some games that way please), I am still only -15. So really no reason to worry at all, I will be fine.

[RavensFan2k3]

How do you rate Dodger's Brock Stewart?

[LT Profits]

How do you rate Dodger's Brock Stewart?

Slightly below average to begin. Others rate him better, he did have 99 strikeouts vs. 14 walks in 86 innings in the minors this year. I have some red flags that offset that though.

[MickeyMan]

Over/under on funnyb25 posts in this thread is set at 43.5.

Over is looking pretty damn good as he's already posted 3 times and I haven't even had breakfast.

This guy seriously has nothing better to do with his days.

[PorkChop]

Marlins/Tigers Under 5.5 -115 thoughts?

Liking it a lot, but Tigers always hit in day games

[LT Profits]

I honestly think Tanaka sucks thsi year, probably gonna get rocked by rangers

Based on what? Even his mainstream stats that I don't put as much credence in look good with his 3.01 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.

But on to the stuff that matters, 75 sttrikeouts vs. 18 walks and a quite decent 51.7 percent groundball rate. His 2.5 WAR is tied with Strasburg for 10th in the majors, so he has been from from sucky.

Speaking of suckiness, that would fit Nick Martinez to a tee with his seven walks and five strikeouts. Yes, that is over just 13 innings, but it continues his career pattern that has him with with an atrocious lifetime 5.05 FIP and 5.19 xFIP.

[PorkChop]

Ignore my last post, missed your Tigers total at the top.

[LT Profits]

Marlins/Tigers Under 5.5 -115 thoughts?

Liking it a lot, but Tigers always hit in day games

Are you even paying attention? Look at my very first play.

[LT Profits]

Ignore my last post, missed your Tigers total at the top.

Are you even paying attention? Look at my very first play.

heehee. Simultaneous posts

[PorkChop]

heehee. Simultaneous posts

I must have double-taked if I recall you played the Miami/Detroit over yesterday. Rare your on back to back overs.

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Boston 66% (-194)
Cubs 62% (-163)
Toronto 63% (-170)
Arizona 63% (-170)
Yankees 70% (-233)

Do I dare bet the Reds? We shall see. Value seems to be there but leaning toward passing as of now after last night's marathon.

Also:

Cleveland 67% (-203)

Atlanta pitching change came down very late last night and I just now finished loading first-time starter info

[LT Profits]

Worried about kc but gonna tail it I think lol

This is the SECOND time all season that I have been on the Royals. The first time they won for me at +127 on June 11.

[italianbandit]

LT is good people. Best of luck. I'm considering the Yankeesrun line, but am concerned about their bullpen.