MLB - Wednesday, 6/15/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Wednesday, 6/15/16
    4 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Yankees / Rockies UNDER 12.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Padres +109 (5 Dimes)
    Blue Jays / Phillies UNDER 8.5 -110 (Bookmaker)
    Astros +110 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 191-208-9, -11.21
  • PorkChop
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-18-08
    • 8193

    #2
    Thoughts on game total 8.5, Padres/Marlins?

    Leaning FF Under 4.5 & Game U 8.5 right now
    Comment
    • RavensFan2k3
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 08-18-12
      • 17378

      #3
      I almost played San Diego early, but figured let me do some more research. How do you rate the Marlins and Padres pitchers?
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Originally posted by PorkChop
        Thoughts on game total 8.5, Padres/Marlins?

        Leaning FF Under 4.5 & Game U 8.5 right now
        Lean Over. model has 9.3 for game

        Same with FF, I have 5.1
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
          I almost played San Diego early, but figured let me do some more research. How do you rate the Marlins and Padres pitchers?
          Both suck about equally, but for that very reason, Miami should not be a road favorite.
          Comment
          • RavensFan2k3
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-18-12
            • 17378

            #6
            Originally posted by LT Profits
            Both suck about equally, but for that very reason, Miami should not be a road favorite.
            Why do you think Nicolino sucks so bad? Perdomo yes, although looked decent vs Colorado when he got thrown in there due to Cashner injury
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              60%ers:

              Dodgers 71% (-245)
              San Francisco 66% (-194)
              Washington 60% (-150)
              Toronto 61% (-156)
              Mets 67% (-203)
              White Sox 68% (-213)

              Currently no line on Mets so keep an eye on that one.
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                Why do you think Nicolino sucks so bad? Perdormo yes, although looked decent vs Colorado when he got thrown in there due to Cashner injury
                I actually have Nicolino rated worse of the two. He is a contact pitcher with only 4.24 strikeouts per nine innings and the majority of that contact is in the air because he has a meh 43.5% ground ball rate. Perhaps most importantly he has a HARD contact rate of 37.0%, which is terrible and would be fifth worst in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. It all shakes out to an ugly 5.06 xFIP.
                Comment
                • Brock Landers
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 06-30-08
                  • 45359

                  #9
                  Being down 11 units should tell you that your LONG TERM PROFITS approach isn't working
                  Comment
                  • RavensFan2k3
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 08-18-12
                    • 17378

                    #10
                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                    I actually have Nicolino rated worse of the two. He is a contact pitcher with only 4.24 strikeouts per nine innings and the majority of that contact is in the air because he has a meh 43.5% ground ball rate. Perhaps most importantly he has a HARD contact rate of 37.0%, which is terrible and would be fifth worst in the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. It all shakes out to an ugly 5.06 xFIP.
                    Thank you. Two more match ups I'm interested in are Nova(Yankees)/Betttis(Rockies) and Desclafani(Reds)/Norris(Braves)
                    Comment
                    • 44 Mag
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 10-14-13
                      • 34490

                      #11
                      Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                      Thank you. Two more match ups I'm interested in are Nova(Yankees)/Betttis(Rockies) and Desclafani(Reds)/Norris(Braves)
                      Tell this guy to do his own research.
                      Comment
                      • RavensFan2k3
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-18-12
                        • 17378

                        #12
                        Originally posted by 44 Mag
                        Tell this guy to do his own research.
                        I do lol, just like to get 2nd opinons on some players lol
                        Comment
                        • goduke
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 02-17-10
                          • 11580

                          #13
                          On the Astros again....I hope one day they win for you.
                          Comment
                          • mikefan1034
                            SBR MVP
                            • 08-29-12
                            • 2448

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Brock Landers
                            Being down 11 units should tell you that your LONG TERM PROFITS approach isn't working
                            This guy gets it. I'm
                            Gonna show everyone that in this contest. I'm simply going by gut and feel for the game because I've played it, and watch almost every game and pay attention to
                            Every team. I'm
                            Not some geek crunching numbers looking at models.
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Brock Landers
                              Being down 11 units should tell you that your LONG TERM PROFITS approach isn't working
                              -11 units feels like winning the way my year had gone, it has seemed a lot worse. Time to run off another 30-unit streak like last time I sunk to these depths (actually, streak began after sitting at season low -19.80).
                              Comment
                              • jjgold
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 07-20-05
                                • 388179

                                #16
                                I wonder if baseball parity has hurt you LT this year?
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                  Thank you. Two more match ups I'm interested in are Nova(Yankees)/Betttis(Rockies) and Desclafani(Reds)/Norris(Braves)
                                  Yankees/Rockies dead even, 50% (+100) both ways

                                  Reds are actually playable, I have them 53% (-113) and they are now tiny dogs.
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by jjgold
                                    I wonder if baseball parity has hurt you LT this year?
                                    Parity would help me theoretically because I do not bet big favorites
                                    Comment
                                    • unusialsusp5
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 04-18-10
                                      • 4198

                                      #19
                                      it seems you're struggling with totals more than straight up plays. totals can be frustrating. too many factors determine outcome.
                                      Comment
                                      • RavensFan2k3
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 08-18-12
                                        • 17378

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                                        Yankees/Rockies dead even, 50% (+100) both ways

                                        Reds are actually playable, I have them 53% (-113) and they are now tiny dogs.
                                        Im askin how you rate the pitchers
                                        Comment
                                        • LT Profits
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-27-06
                                          • 90963

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                          Im askin how you rate the pitchers
                                          Well, considering the starting pitchers account for around 80% of the line, it should not be hard to figure out.

                                          Actually that is not quite true in Yankee game where I have Bettis average and Nova a smidgeon below average. However, HUGE bullpen edge for Yanks brings game to even.

                                          DeSclafani average, Norris WAY below average in other game, Cincy pen preventing Reds from being bigger fave.
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            1 MLB Addition

                                            5 MLB Plays Wednesday

                                            Yankees / Rockies UNDER 12.5 -105 (Heritage)
                                            Padres +109 (5 Dimes)
                                            Blue Jays / Phillies UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
                                            Astros +110 (5 Dimes)
                                            Twins +112 (Heritage)
                                            Comment
                                            • juicername
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 10-14-15
                                              • 6906

                                              #23
                                              What about the over in Twins/Halos? I mean, if the Twins are to win with Duffey they're gonna have to score A LOT of runs, lol.
                                              Comment
                                              • LT Profits
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 10-27-06
                                                • 90963

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by juicername
                                                What about the over in Twins/Halos? I mean, if the Twins are to win with Duffey they're gonna have to score A LOT of runs, lol.
                                                Not true at all, Duffey has 47 strikeouts vs. just 11 walks in 52.1 innings, his 3.55 xFIP is nearly two runs lower than his ERA! He should be fine once his BABIP allowed stabilizes (a ridiculous .358 right now).
                                                Comment
                                                • killawookie
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-25-09
                                                  • 3457

                                                  #25
                                                  Hope the Phillies game goes OVER.. I want to watch a hitting contest while being there, when I'd care less about the two teams.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • RavensFan2k3
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 08-18-12
                                                    • 17378

                                                    #26
                                                    SD game is going over smh and idk how SD keeps up
                                                    Comment
                                                    • funnyb25
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 07-09-09
                                                      • 39663

                                                      #27
                                                      Padres every day
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LT Profits
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-27-06
                                                        • 90963

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by juicername
                                                        What about the over in Twins/Halos? I mean, if the Twins are to win with Duffey they're gonna have to score A LOT of runs, lol.
                                                        In fact, I just added the Under
                                                        Comment
                                                        • LT Profits
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 10-27-06
                                                          • 90963

                                                          #29
                                                          2 More MLB Additions

                                                          7 MLB Plays Wednesday

                                                          Yankees / Rockies UNDER 12.5 -105 (Heritage)
                                                          Padres +109 (5 Dimes)
                                                          Blue Jays / Phillies UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
                                                          Reds / Braves UNDER 8 +105 (Heritage)
                                                          Astros +110 (5 Dimes)
                                                          Twins +112 (Heritage)
                                                          Twins / Angels UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
                                                          Comment
                                                          • funnyb25
                                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                            • 07-09-09
                                                            • 39663

                                                            #30
                                                            Already forcing more plays...sigh...
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Ralphie1412
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-29-08
                                                              • 13963

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                                              This guy gets it. I'm
                                                              Gonna show everyone that in this contest. I'm simply going by gut and feel for the game because I've played it, and watch almost every game and pay attention to
                                                              Every team. I'm
                                                              Not some geek crunching numbers looking at models.
                                                              Hahahhaha ya THAT guy is Brock Landers and I assure you he "gets" nothing. I still can't stop laughing about your thread you have been bragging about. 11-6 bhahhhha
                                                              "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
                                                              Goat Milk
                                                              Comment
                                                              • funnyb25
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 07-09-09
                                                                • 39663

                                                                #32
                                                                Same slow start in rockies about to fly over again
                                                                Comment
                                                                • funnyb25
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 07-09-09
                                                                  • 39663

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Kind of waiting for the 0-2 start so we get 10 more additions
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mikefan1034
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-29-12
                                                                    • 2448

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by Ralphie1412
                                                                    Hahahhaha ya THAT guy is Brock Landers and I assure you he "gets" nothing. I still can't stop laughing about your thread you have been bragging about. 11-6 bhahhhha
                                                                    Up 1000 ur in a losing thread waiting for a miracle
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • RavensFan2k3
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 08-18-12
                                                                      • 17378

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Lets go Padres! My stupid ass played Yankees too tho
                                                                      Comment
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