MLB - Sunday, 6/12/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Sunday, 6/12/16
    5 MLB Plays Sunday

    Astros -127 (Bookmaker)
    Tigers / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
    Red Sox / Twins UNDER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Dodgers +104 (Heritage)


    YTD: 183-192-9, -1.81
  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #2
    Originally posted by LT Profits
    Astros -127 (Bookmaker)
    I know, I know.

    Bookmaker baited me by hanging less than -130, I am showing Astros as a 60%er with Keuchel back in form.
    Comment
    • mikefan1034
      SBR MVP
      • 08-29-12
      • 2448

      #3
      Originally posted by LT Profits
      I know, I know.

      Bookmaker baited me by hanging less than -130, I am showing Astros as a 60%er with Keuchel back in form.
      Keuchal back in form? Why lie LT. He's not in form what are u talking about. Since ur a liar saying he's back in form I'll help the forum out to prevent people from losing money or better yet avoiding the game completely. Keuchal since he's back in form according to u, last 2 starts u know the more recent stats. He's 0-2 allowing 7 runs on 16 hits in 13.5 innings. But yea he's back in form alright from a cy young season last year lol
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Originally posted by mikefan1034
        Keuchal back in form? Why lie LT. He's not in form what are u talking about. Since ur a liar saying he's back in form I'll help the forum out to prevent people from losing money or better yet avoiding the game completely. Keuchal since he's back in form according to u, last 2 starts u know the more recent stats. He's 0-2 allowing 7 runs on 16 hits in 13.5 innings. But yea he's back in form alright from a cy young season last year lol
        How about looking at things that actually MATTER!

        Last four starts, 25 strikeouts vs. TWO walks in in 26.1 innings. Things will fall into place as long as that continues, he will be fine.
        Comment
        • mikefan1034
          SBR MVP
          • 08-29-12
          • 2448

          #5
          Originally posted by LT Profits
          How about looking at things that actually MATTER!

          Last four starts, 25 strikeouts vs. TWO walks in in 26.1 innings. Things will fall into place as long as that continues, he will be fine.
          I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so
          Comment
          • LT Profits
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-27-06
            • 90963

            #6
            60%ers:

            Toronto 67% (-203)
            Houston 61% (-156)
            Cubs 72% (-257)
            Boston 66% (-194)
            Cleveland 63% (-170)
            Washington 72% (-257)
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by mikefan1034
              I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so
              I am sure you will if I lose, just like you always do. You obviously have no clue which stats are PREDICTIVE and which are not. Keuchel is now down to a 3.53 xFIP with that figure dropping in every start lately. You keep focusing on the hits allowed, but he won't keep allowing a .335 BABIP. And I haven't even gotten into Matt Moore being mostly a stiff this year.
              Comment
              • bonesesh
                SBR Rookie
                • 04-19-15
                • 17

                #8
                Mike Fan is a true prick.
                Comment
                • JayDr3am
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 05-06-14
                  • 18260

                  #9
                  LT you told me you didnt wager your 60%ers?.. do you really trust keuchel or are you just fishing to see if something bites?
                  Comment
                  • BlueJaysNation
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 07-06-15
                    • 42

                    #10
                    Hey LT, how do you feel about Astros -1.5 at +125?
                    Comment
                    • LT Profits
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-27-06
                      • 90963

                      #11
                      Originally posted by JayDr3am
                      LT you told me you didnt wager your 60%ers?.. do you really trust keuchel or are you just fishing to see if something bites?
                      My exact words were "almost never" because I almost never (there is that phrase again LOL) lay more than -130 on any single event and I hate extreme variance from my model, which is what happens when model has a 60%er (at least -150) and the real line is less than -130. This is one of those rare cases though where I actually expected to see a larger variance with Keuchel not looking good on his mainstream numbers, so I was not as hesitant to pull the trigger as usual.
                      Comment
                      • LT Profits
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-27-06
                        • 90963

                        #12
                        Originally posted by BlueJaysNation
                        Hey LT, how do you feel about Astros -1.5 at +125?
                        That actually seems like a nice play, I get -1.5 +110ish. Run Line would be a nice alternative if you cannot get -130 or less on ML. I would not recommend making both bets though, I do not think Astros deserve a double-dip here.
                        Comment
                        • BlueJaysNation
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 07-06-15
                          • 42

                          #13
                          Cool! Thanks!
                          Comment
                          • JayDr3am
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 05-06-14
                            • 18260

                            #14
                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                            My exact words were "almost never" because I almost never (there is that phrase again LOL) lay more than -130 on any single event and I hate extreme variance from my model, which is what happens when model has a 60%er (at least -150) and the real line is less than -130. This is one of those rare cases though where I actually expected to see a larger variance with Keuchel not looking good on his mainstream numbers, so I was not as hesitant to pull the trigger as usual.
                            fair enough, GL today
                            Comment
                            • HeeluvaGuy
                              SBR MVP
                              • 02-15-14
                              • 3449

                              #15
                              Sorry if this has been asked a thousand times: Does you model factor in umpires in any way? Thanks.
                              Comment
                              • juicername
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 10-14-15
                                • 6906

                                #16
                                Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so
                                Why have you not posted Rays as a play in your thread if you're so sure? Oh right, you don't want to be held accountable if it's a loss, only come back and say I told you so if it wins.
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
                                  Sorry if this has been asked a thousand times: Does you model factor in umpires in any way? Thanks.
                                  Yes, there is an Umpire field, but usually not for the opening game of a series. But once first game starts, all Umps are entered for rest of series.
                                  Comment
                                  • BiffTFinancial
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-29-09
                                    • 22670

                                    #18
                                    I know better than to doubt you, but you are a braver man than i for going under in Yankee Stadium today with that wind and 80 degrees. BOL today, LT!
                                    Comment
                                    • chosen4th
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-29-12
                                      • 1106

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                      I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so
                                      And im sure if the astros win he wont be back to say anything
                                      Comment
                                      • funnyb25
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 07-09-09
                                        • 39663

                                        #20
                                        Has Urias been a play every start?
                                        Comment
                                        • LT Profits
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-27-06
                                          • 90963

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by funnyb25
                                          Has Urias been a play every start?
                                          I bet him first two starts when Dodgers lost. He was too big a price so passed last time and Dodgers won.

                                          Still, kid seemed to figure things out last time so hope he can duplicate that outing.
                                          Comment
                                          • Ghenghis Kahn
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-02-12
                                            • 19734

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by funnyb25
                                            Has Urias been a play every start?
                                            hate to say this but the kids is a flop so far. he'll probably get sent back to the minors soon.
                                            Comment
                                            • Ralphie1412
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 01-29-08
                                              • 13963

                                              #23
                                              Mikesfan get the penetrate out of here with that negative bullshit. LT even took a shot at himself. We all know Houston has costed him. You don't need to come in here and talk about it. Making fun of a gambling loss to someone who is nothing but polite and generous is pretty ****** up.
                                              "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
                                              Goat Milk
                                              Comment
                                              • jay89
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 08-04-13
                                                • 671

                                                #24
                                                I'm on TB over 1.5 first five innings. TB batters mash vs left...but then you got matt moore starting for TB so could really go either way
                                                Comment
                                                • LT Profits
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-27-06
                                                  • 90963

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by Ghenghis Kahn
                                                  hate to say this but the kids is a flop so far. he'll probably get sent back to the minors soon.
                                                  Did you miss his last start?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • LT Profits
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 10-27-06
                                                    • 90963

                                                    #26
                                                    2 MLB Additions

                                                    7 MLB Plays Sunday

                                                    Astros -127 (Bookmaker)
                                                    Tigers / Yankees UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
                                                    Red Sox / Twins UNDER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
                                                    Marlins / Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 -115 (Heritage)
                                                    Marlins / Diamondbacks UNDER 5.5 -120 (5 innings) (Bookmaker)

                                                    Rangers / Mariners UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
                                                    Dodgers +104 (Heritage)
                                                    Comment
                                                    • PorkChop
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 09-18-08
                                                      • 8193

                                                      #27
                                                      Thoughts on A's +100?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Ghenghis Kahn
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                        • 19734

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                        Did you miss his last start?
                                                        i'm still not convinced. he's still young so i'm pretty sure he'll develop into a stud but i just don't see it yet.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • RavensFan2k3
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 08-18-12
                                                          • 17378

                                                          #29
                                                          Adam Conley and Robbie Ray, how do you rate them?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Nateboogy
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 03-13-14
                                                            • 167

                                                            #30
                                                            I have 9 and 4.5. Too far off i assume?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • funnyb25
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 07-09-09
                                                              • 39663

                                                              #31
                                                              This ACE Kuechel... just gave up a hit and back to back walks all to batters with an average in the .100's
                                                              Comment
                                                              • LT Profits
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-27-06
                                                                • 90963

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                                                Adam Conley and Robbie Ray, how do you rate them?
                                                                Ray is better overall, I rate him above average, Conley right at average although he has improved since earlier in the year.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • funnyb25
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 07-09-09
                                                                  • 39663

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                                                  I'll be back when this loses to be like I told u so
                                                                  He will be back very very soon
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mikefan1034
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-29-12
                                                                    • 2448

                                                                    #34
                                                                    LT is such a fraud. Kid doesn't have a clue. Keuchal back in form? Lol yeah ok he obviously doesn't watch baseball or look at the right stats. Reason why he's down units 3 months into the season. "Back in form" lol I still can't believe u really thought keuchal was back in form lol
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • funnyb25
                                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                      • 07-09-09
                                                                      • 39663

                                                                      #35
                                                                      there he is
                                                                      Comment
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