MLB - Thursday, 6/2/16

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 07:23 AM

4 MLB Plays

4 MLB Plays Thursday

Brewers +116 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox / Orioles OVER 9.5 +105 (Heritage)
Royals / Indians UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Twins +110 (Heritage)

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 07:39 AM

60%ers:

San Francisco 72% (-257)
Cleveland 64% (-178)
Colorado 62% (-163)

WalkingLuckCharm · 06-02-16, 07:53 AM

Are they your kids in your dp?

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 08:12 AM

Originally posted by WalkingLuckCharm

Are they your kids in your dp?

Yes they are, oldest on left Robert is now 17 and driving. I AM old.

Snake24 · 06-02-16, 08:36 AM

GL today

Snake24 · 06-02-16, 08:37 AM

Do you parlay any of your bets, LT?

Broke Homey · 06-02-16, 08:41 AM

LT, I thought Maeda was starting for LAD, but it looks like Urias is now. How much of a differential does your platform show for the Cubs winning % vs both pitchers?

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 08:49 AM

Originally posted by Snake24

Do you parlay any of your bets, LT?

No, everything straight.

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by Broke Homey

LT, I thought Maeda was starting for LAD, but it looks like Urias is now. How much of a differential does your platform show for the Cubs winning % vs both pitchers?

Urias was named yesterday afternoon so I did run model with correct pitchers, and I get Cubs 57% (-133).

Note I did not touch Urias rating after first start as he ran into Ump with very tight strike zone. Nic Lentz today has been a slight Under ump through his limited sampling, so I expect better performance from Urias, who had eye-popping numbers at Triple-A.

Broke Homey · 06-02-16, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Urias was named yesterday afternoon so I did run model with correct pitchers, and I get Cubs 57% (-133).

Note I did not touch Urias rating after first start as he ran into Ump with very tight strike zone. Nic Lentz today has been a slight Under ump through his limited sampling, so I expect better performance from Urias, who had eye-popping numbers at Triple-A.

I missed that yesterday. I went on Heritage and saw that there was an overnight pitching change noted. So if -133 is the number, i am off, way off, on my early wager...
Ty for the info, and all you do here. BOL today!
BH

VtecMouse · 06-02-16, 09:41 AM

Whats going on LT.. does the model say anything about the Houston Dbacks game with the over/under.. im thinking over.. any thoughts.. thanks
...

trobin31 · 06-02-16, 09:46 AM

LT, what do you have on Arz @ Hou, I am baffled by even the opening line of -130, let alone thr rlm and steam pushing it even higher. I get about -110 for arz on the 1st 5 innings, using Grienke away stats instead of full grade and -110 for Astros full game due to their bullpen advantage so just wondering you got. Maybe somebody out for arz? Tia

Snake24 · 06-02-16, 10:05 AM

LT, model results on the Yankees/Tigers total? Is O9 a consideration?

HeeluvaGuy · 06-02-16, 10:23 AM

Originally posted by VtecMouse

Whats going on LT.. does the model say anything about the Houston Dbacks game with the over/under.. im thinking over.. any thoughts.. thanks
...

Arizona has played 12 straight overs. Going for lucky 13 today.

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 10:41 AM

Originally posted by VtecMouse

Whats going on LT.. does the model say anything about the Houston Dbacks game with the over/under.. im thinking over.. any thoughts.. thanks
...

I have 8.1, could become playable if it drops to 7

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 10:43 AM

Originally posted by trobin31

LT, what do you have on Arz @ Hou, I am baffled by even the opening line of -130, let alone thr rlm and steam pushing it even higher. I get about -110 for arz on the 1st 5 innings, using Grienke away stats instead of full grade and -110 for Astros full game due to their bullpen advantage so just wondering you got. Maybe somebody out for arz? Tia

I see the same thing you see and passed this game due to extreme variance. Model has Houston 53% (-113).

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by Snake24

LT, model results on the Yankees/Tigers total? Is O9 a consideration?

Too close, I get 9.4

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Arizona has played 12 straight overs. Going for lucky 13 today.

THIS time I actually do lean Over, but the 7.5 is still to close to my 8.1

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy

Arizona has played 12 straight overs. Going for lucky 13 today.

Oh and let's no talk about yesterday's 4-1 entering ninth inning.

HeeluvaGuy · 06-02-16, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I see the same thing you see and passed this game due to extreme variance. Model has Houston 53% (-113).

The Arizona lineup today is weird. No Tomas, who really can only hit lefties, yet Lamb is in. I think Chip Hale is on the verge of being fired. He has completely lost this team.

Now that I've said that, they'll probably crush Keuchel and win easily.

HeeluvaGuy · 06-02-16, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Oh and let's no talk about yesterday's 4-1 entering ninth inning.

Haha. That's the thing about streaks. Weird shit happens to keep them going. But truth be told, balls were getting hammered early in that game and it could have easily been 6-4 going into the ninth.

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 11:18 AM

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Thursday

Dodgers +140 (DSI)
Brewers +116 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox / Orioles OVER 9.5 +105 (Heritage)
Royals / Indians UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Twins +110 (Heritage)

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 11:21 AM

Yes, I am very much aware Dodgers are only 7 cents off of model number, but I still like the play. Let's see how Urias does with a fair strike zone.

7777KaL · 06-02-16, 12:36 PM

Houston ML I believe they will come through. Specially a home game

trobin31 · 06-02-16, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by trobin31

LT, what do you have on Arz @ Hou, I am baffled by even the opening line of -130, let alone thr rlm and steam pushing it even higher. I get about -110 for arz on the 1st 5 innings, using Grienke away stats instead of full grade and -110 for Astros full game due to their bullpen advantage so just wondering you got. Maybe somebody out for arz? Tia

Thanks LT, some steam moved the line towards us so I'm gonna take a shot at it. Agree with you on dodgers as well but took the run line just in case the cubs late inning magic and dodgers shotty bullpen bite me in the ass.

funnyb25 · 06-02-16, 01:53 PM

Damn...I've been on every play and it really appears that last season was a complete fluke. Phock

LT Profits · 06-02-16, 02:00 PM

NO ACTION on Twins, so down to 4 Plays as of now.

GreatWallofTrump · 06-02-16, 02:01 PM

Why pulling out of twins? Just curious

funnyb25 · 06-02-16, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by GreatWallofTrump

Why pulling out of twins? Just curious

Pitching change

funnyb25 · 06-02-16, 02:25 PM

I know you don't like tweaking model during season, but it can't get any worse...7 losing days in a row, maybe more, tweaking it might be necessary..

funnyb25 · 06-02-16, 02:39 PM

Urias next week

RavensFan2k3 · 06-02-16, 03:06 PM

Brewers was the only play I liked tonight. Let's get this

WalkingLuckCharm · 06-02-16, 04:56 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Yes they are, oldest on left Robert is now 17 and driving. I AM old.

Roscoe_Word · 06-02-16, 05:07 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Brewers was the only play I liked tonight. Let's get this

With you and LT on this.