MLB - Wednesday, 6/1/16

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Wednesday So Far

Athletics -122 (5 Dimes)
Nationals -1.5 -120 (Heritage)


YTD: 149-161-7, -4.81

Totals Coming

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays

4 MLB Plays Wednesday

Athletics -122 (5 Dimes)
Rangers / Indians UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Nationals -1.5 -120 (Heritage)
Mariners / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)

[pilebuck13]

Is Harper going to play today lt?

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Mets 66% (-194)
St. Louis 62% (-163)
Washington 74% (-285)
Cubs 65% (-185)
Houston 64% (-177)
Colorado 64% (-177)
Seattle 62% (-163)

[LT Profits]

Is Harper going to play today lt?

He is Doubtful. Still a huge pitching mismatch though.

[blackHIPPY]

gl today

[lonnloe]

Let's get it! BOL!

[Rich Boy]

See a 4-0 day for you LT, gambling gods owe you one

[gpet1984]

60%ers:

Mets 66% (-194)
St. Louis 62% (-163)
Washington 74% (-285)
Cubs 65% (-185)
Houston 64% (-177)
Colorado 64% (-177)
Seattle 62% (-163)

Fiers grades out that much better then Ray to warren this big of a favorite?

BOL Today!

[LT Profits]

Fiers grades out that much better then Ray to warren this big of a favorite?

BOL Today!

There are other things involved too such as Houston grading out better in the bullpen and offensively, but yes, Fiers is a bit better thanks to K/BB ratio.

[gpet1984]

There are other things involved too such as Houston grading out better in the bullpen and offensively, but yes, Fiers is a bit better thanks to K/BB ratio.

Thank you. One more question. How does a back up catcher playing such as Lucray sitting today affect your numbers. Total and line wise how much value is the catcher worth?

[LT Profits]

Thank you. One more question. How does a back up catcher playing such as Lucray sitting today affect your numbers. Total and line wise how much value is the catcher worth?

Model is player specific, so depends on how good/bad backup is. The St. Louis 63% above was using Milwaukee default lineup. After inserting Maldonado in the eighth spot and moving rest of default lineup up a spot starting with Carter now at cleanup, I STILL get St. Louis 63%.

Impact minimized by eighth batter expected to get fractionally fewer at-bats.

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Additions

7 MLB Plays Wednesday

Athletics -122 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Athletics OVER 8.5 -120 (Heritage)
Rangers / Indians UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Nationals -1.5 -120 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Astros UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Rays +107 (Heritage)
Mariners / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)

[44 Mag]

7 MLB Plays Wednesday

Athletics -122 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Athletics OVER 8.5 -120 (Heritage)
Rangers / Indians UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Nationals -1.5 -120 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Astros UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
Rays +107 (Heritage)
Mariners / Padres OVER 7 -110 (Bookmaker)

Lt, can you give me a little feedback on the over 8.5 in the Oakland game. Thx.

[LT Profits]

Lt, can you give me a little feedback on the over 8.5 in the Oakland game. Thx.

Mainly because Dean does not grade out well and both offenses get above average ratings vs. lefties. Model has 9.6. With that being said, 8.5 is a key total here, pass at 9.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Mode going against the 11-game Arizona over trend again, huh?

[mikefan1034]

fading....

[juicername]

fading....

If LT is 149-161-7, -4.81, then fading must have costed you a boatload of juice this season. Well done miketroll, keep it up.

[Roscoe_Word]

Excellent price on A's. Can't explain that huge line jump, though.

[mikefan1034]

If LT is 149-161-7, -4.81, then fading must have costed you a boatload of juice this season. Well done miketroll, keep it up.

I pick my spots u klown who bets over 300 games of LT darts lol

[MMA_Oracle]

edit ignore

[LT Profits]

Mode going against the 11-game Arizona over trend again, huh?

That streak could be precisely why we are getting +105. So while the streak means nothing in and of itself, it appears to be serving the purpose of giving value to the Under.

[LT Profits]

Now down to six plays, NO ACTION on Mariners/Padres total.

[RavensFan2k3]

LT you developed your model yourself?

[LT Profits]

LT you developed your model yourself?

No I had a programmer do it, I just made suggestions on what stats I wanted.

[RavensFan2k3]

No I had a programmer do it, I just made suggestions on what stats I wanted.

Ohhh okay. Is this something you adjust normally, or only in the off seasons? Or ever?

[Smutbucket]

No I had a programmer do it, I just made suggestions on what stats I wanted.

Is he looking for more business? Im looking for a programmer to create a model. PM me please

[RavensFan2k3]

Go Oakland!

[HeeluvaGuy]

That streak could be precisely why we are getting +105. So while the streak means nothing in and of itself, it appears to be serving the purpose of giving value to the Under.

The way I look at it, the streak exists because Arizona can't get anyone out. Until that changes, I'm a streak rider. I got +105 at over 9.

[RavensFan2k3]

The way I look at it, the streak exists because Arizona can't get anyone out. Until that changes, I'm a streak rider. I got +105 at over 9.

Makes sense, LT's model doesnt account for things like streaks, weather, or motivation

[funnyb25]

Makes sense, LT's model doesnt account for things like streaks, weather, or motivation

It doesn't account for the players either as the plays are released long before lineups are released.

[RavensFan2k3]

It doesn't account for the players either as the plays are released long before lineups are released.

True

[HeeluvaGuy]

Makes sense, LT's model doesnt account for things like streaks, weather, or motivation

I don't know if it makes any more sense than a model that runs an actual statistical analysis, but I've won the last three overs in this streak, so why not ride it out? Picked up the Detroit over streak at about this point last season and did quite well with that. Maybe lightning strikes twice.

[funnyb25]

1-2 to start. Shit

[eddycash]

1-1 to start where do you have a 2nd loss?