MLB - Wednesday, 5/25/16

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Wednesday So Far

Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
Astros -127 (Heritage)


YTD: 139-138-6, +9.42

More Coming, Just getting Money Lines up before 8:00am ET for overnight line purposes.

[l7ustin]

No angels?

[LT Profits]

No angels?

No, line seems right. I get Texas 54% (-117)

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays

5 MLB Plays Wednesday

Phillies / Tigers UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Padres / Giants UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
Astros -127 (Heritage)
Reds / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -115 (Bookmaker)

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Cubs 65% (-186)
Tampa Bay 62% (-163)
Boston 63% (-170)
Seattle 65% (-186)
Dodgers 63% (-170)

[pilebuck13]

Lt the Cubs line at -161 seems off to me....pretty far off your model as well.cards worth a play at +150...?

[l7ustin]

No, his model says the cubs are worth the play and they should be -186 instead of -161 but LT doesnt play chalky favorites

[Rigbone]

He has the Cubs listed at -186, so +150 on the Cards would not be something to take.

[l7ustin]

how big of a variation do you look for to be consider a play LT? off by a quarter or more or?

[pilebuck13]

No, his model says the cubs are worth the play and they should be -186 instead of -161 but LT doesnt play chalky favorites

Completely understand.....just scratching my head on the variation

[LT Profits]

how big of a variation do you look for to be consider a play LT? off by a quarter or more or?

Generally speaking, more than 10%, but that is where I use a lot of judgment despite using a model. In some situations I want a bigger variance while at other times I have made plays just pennies off of model number. But as a general rule of thumb, 10%.

[LT Profits]

Yes, sick RLM in Cubs game against Arrieta.

[RavensFan2k3]

Padres?

[l7ustin]

Arrieta sale kershaw will probably all lose at some point but throwing darts at when and fading them seems stupid to me.

Cards dont seem as good this year as the past decade historically suggests

[LT Profits]

Padres?

A little too close for me, Giants 56% (-127)

[LT Profits]

Arrieta sale kershaw will probably all lose at some point but throwing darts at when and fading them seems stupid to me.

Cards dont seem as good this year as the past decade historically suggests

Well I am not afraid to fade anyone if the model variance is big enough, although those are specific cases where I'd want a bigger variance than normal. I even faded Arrieta a few times this year and took a lot of heat for it, but I was getting better than +200 when model had him like in the -170s. But today is the first time this year Arrieta has perceived value according to the model (which probably means he loses ).

[RavensFan2k3]

Arrieta sale kershaw will probably all lose at some point but throwing darts at when and fading them seems stupid to me.

Cards dont seem as good this year as the past decade historically suggests

Lol I know a guy, won't say his name tho, but he loves betting against pitchers like that everytime. I see no problem with picking spots, but everytime?? He also bet against the Warriors alot in the beginning of he season and the Panthers(NFL) alot this past season. All for the sole purpose that they can't be perfect forever. Then has the nerve to claim bullshit when he loses. I will never understand.

[RavensFan2k3]

LT I appreciate your insight. What do you have Mets, Philly, Arizona(I see you're on them), Cincinatti and Baltimore(just realized you're on Houston) at? Thank you

[l7ustin]

What size bets do you use LT? standard 1% per play?

[LT Profits]

What size bets do you use LT? standard 1% per play?

2.5% of BR 99% of the time.

[LT Profits]

2.5% of BR 99% of the time.

By the way, that is TO WIN 2.5%, which is another reason I almost never lay more than -130. At -130, the RISK for be 3.25%, which is a little too rich for someone that bets every day.

[LT Profits]

LT I appreciate your insight. What do you have Mets, Philly, Arizona(I see you're on them), Cincinatti and Baltimore(just realized you're on Houston) at? Thank you

Mets 54% (-117)
Detroit 52% (-108)
Arizona 53% (-113)
Dodgers 63% (-170) - See the 60%ers
Houston 59% (-144)

Mets look playable but I don't like the RLM as of now. Will revisit in a bit.

[44 Mag]

Padres?

I took the SD + money. More going against Jake than anything.

[stackz125]

Detriot
Cubs
KC

Morning rush parlay.


Which one looses

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Wednesday

Mets -111 (Heritage)
Phillies / Tigers UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Padres / Giants UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
Astros -127 (Heritage)
Reds / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -115 (Bookmaker)

[LT Profits]

FYI, model now has Mets 56% (-127) after removing Harper.

[Diesel79]

6 MLB Plays Wednesday

Mets -111 (Heritage)
Phillies / Tigers UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Padres / Giants UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
Astros -127 (Heritage)
Reds / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -115 (Bookmaker)

Wow... 3 minutes after your post NYM is -120 or -125 everywhere

[PorkChop]

Padres?

Shields lost to San Fran twice already, I'd be surprised if he loses 3 times. But Peavy got shelled his last start, and is pitching to hold his spot in rotation

[LT Profits]

Wow... 3 minutes after your post NYM is -120 or -125 everywhere

Yeah, I hustled to get bet in as soon as I saw lineups. I would still play up to -122, one of those plays where just a 5-cent variance works for me.

[POOLSIDE]

Yeah, I hustled to get bet in as soon as I saw lineups. I would still play up to -122, one of those plays where just a 5-cent variance works for me.

It's back down to -111. Strange.

[iloseagain]

getting KC at + money against the twins seems like an auto play.. what does model say about this one

[LT Profits]

getting KC at + money against the twins seems like an auto play.. what does model say about this one

Believe it or not. Minnesota 55% (-122). More of a reflection of Dillon Gee than anything else.

[thebestthereis]

Arrieta sale kershaw will probably all lose at some point but throwing darts at when and fading them seems stupid to me.

Cards dont seem as good this year as the past decade historically suggests

Martinez is 5-0 vs the Cubs when he pitches and getting +160 at home in a day game is worth a shot and hard not to stab at. Just my opinion.

[iloseagain]

Believe it or not. Minnesota 55% (-122). More of a reflection of Dillon Gee than anything else.

wow... KC will prob smoke them again lol.. no play for me. thanks

Martinez is 5-0 vs the Cubs when he pitches and getting +160 at home in a day game is worth a shot and hard not to stab at. Just my opinion.

yea but 5-0 means absolutely nothing. record is the worst stat ever. those 5 starts didnt come against arrieta. in fact, none of them did. they could have came against their 4 and 5 pitchers

[LT Profits]

2 MLB 5-Inning Additions

8 MLB Plays Wednesday

Mets -111 (Heritage)
Phillies / Tigers UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
Indians +105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Padres / Giants UNDER 7.5 +105 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +107 (5 Dimes)
Diamondbacks +105 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Astros -127 (Heritage)
Reds / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -115 (Bookmaker)