MLB - Thursday, 5/19/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Thursday, 5/19/16
    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    Indians -1.5 +120 (Heritage)
    Rockies / Cardinals UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Astros / White Sox UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 120-118-6, +10.34
  • dirtycash66
    SBR MVP
    • 04-13-12
    • 2958

    #2
    Originally posted by LT Profits
    3 MLB Plays Thursday

    Indians -1.5 +120 (Heritage)
    Rockies / Cardinals UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
    Astros / White Sox UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 120-118-6, +10.34
    First time I've seen you take a run line, that must be a very strong play.
    Comment
    • LT Profits
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-27-06
      • 90963

      #3
      60%ers:

      Cubs 63% (-170)
      Pirates 60% (-150)
      Cleveland 61% (-156)
      White Sox 63% (-170)
      San Francisco 61% (-156)
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Originally posted by dirtycash66
        First time I've seen you take a run line, that must be a very strong play.
        Yeah, nice Run Line price for road team with a 61% Money Line model %.
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          Originally posted by LT Profits
          Yeah, nice Run Line price for road team with a 61% Money Line model %.
          I couldn't even knock anyone for betting Cleveland -141 right now. I am personally risk adverse and almost never lay more than -130 on anything, but that's just me.
          Comment
          • jjgold
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 07-20-05
            • 388179

            #6
            Laying 1.5 tough

            damn so many 1 run games

            good luck
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by jjgold
              Laying 1.5 tough

              damn so many 1 run games

              good luck
              Bit easier with road teams, especially if model's 61% Money Line rate is close. -156 for road team equates to roughly -1.5 +100.
              Comment
              • Spartak
                SBR Hustler
                • 08-29-15
                • 57

                #8
                Hi LT,
                If you dont mind can you tell me are this odds fair enough according your model:
                LAD +105
                MIN +115
                SEA +100

                10x

                GL with your plays.
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Spartak
                  Hi LT,
                  If you dont mind can you tell me are this odds fair enough according your model:
                  LAD +105
                  MIN +115
                  SEA +100

                  10x

                  GL with your plays.
                  I get:

                  LAA 52% (-108)
                  Tor 55% (-122)
                  Sea/Bal 50% (+100)

                  So No, No and exactly neutral
                  Comment
                  • Spartak
                    SBR Hustler
                    • 08-29-15
                    • 57

                    #10
                    Thanks a lot, Gl
                    Comment
                    • Snake24
                      SBR MVP
                      • 06-14-14
                      • 2366

                      #11
                      Gm LT, are the Mets a consideration today?
                      Comment
                      • RavensFan2k3
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 08-18-12
                        • 17378

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Spartak
                        Hi LT,
                        If you dont mind can you tell me are this odds fair enough according your model:
                        LAD +105
                        MIN +115
                        SEA +100

                        10x

                        GL with your plays.
                        I like LAD today. I was on LAA yesterday
                        Comment
                        • LT Profits
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-27-06
                          • 90963

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Snake24
                          Gm LT, are the Mets a consideration today?
                          I actually like Washington 56% (-127) with Strasburg, but staying away for now because I hate the line movement away from model number.
                          Comment
                          • Spartak
                            SBR Hustler
                            • 08-29-15
                            • 57

                            #14
                            Google for you, been Lad yesterday
                            Comment
                            • RavensFan2k3
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-18-12
                              • 17378

                              #15
                              Originally posted by Spartak
                              Google for you, been Lad yesterday
                              Huh?
                              Comment
                              • Da Manster!
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 07-13-07
                                • 17720

                                #16
                                I think the Braves are a good dog pick today (+153) with Foltynewicz on the mound!...He's 1 -1 with a 2.89 era with 16 k's in three starts and has improved and gotten better after each start...not too shabby...and Locke is another hamburger who's 1- 3 with a 5.89 era...of'course the game can go either way considering how bad Atlanta sucks, but I'll gladly take a shot at plus money with the better pitcher on the mound...
                                Comment
                                • LT Profits
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-27-06
                                  • 90963

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Da Manster!
                                  I think the Braves are a good dog pick today (+153) with Foltynewicz on the mound!...He's 1 -1 with a 2.89 era with 16 k's in three starts and has improved and gotten better after each start...not too shabby...and Locke is another hamburger who's 1- 3 with a 5.89 era...of'course the game can go either way considering how bad Atlanta sucks, but I'll gladly take a shot at plus money with the better pitcher on the mound...
                                  Notice I have Pittsburgh at exactly 60% (-150), and the reason it is lower than many expected is that Atlanta starting pitching edge. Still, I'd want more than +160.
                                  Comment
                                  • Spartak
                                    SBR Hustler
                                    • 08-29-15
                                    • 57

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Spartak
                                    Google for you, been Lad yesterday
                                    *Good...
                                    Comment
                                    • TxAaron
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 08-25-11
                                      • 2082

                                      #19
                                      Has the line moved much on Indians? I have them -128 ML
                                      Comment
                                      • LT Profits
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-27-06
                                        • 90963

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by TxAaron
                                        Has the line moved much on Indians? I have them -128 ML
                                        Yes it has, was in the -140s when I opted for the RL.
                                        Comment
                                        • LT Profits
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-27-06
                                          • 90963

                                          #21
                                          1 MLB Addition

                                          4 MLB Plays Thursday

                                          Indians -1.5 +120 (Heritage)
                                          Rockies / Cardinals UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
                                          Astros / White Sox UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
                                          Yankees / Athletics UNDER 8.5 -110 (Heritage)
                                          Comment
                                          • SAX27
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 07-03-15
                                            • 1324

                                            #22
                                            LT...folks on this forum who I respect says you have been grumpy lately....you do seem a bit edgy....all good?
                                            Comment
                                            • BeanTownClown88
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 08-08-13
                                              • 1961

                                              #23
                                              I got the worst line for Cleveland damn! Swore it would have shot up not down.
                                              Line ups aren't out yet, we better see the usual suspects in there...the boys are slugging as of late
                                              Comment
                                              • Snake24
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 06-14-14
                                                • 2366

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by SAX27
                                                LT...folks on this forum who I respect says you have been grumpy lately....you do seem a bit edgy....all good?
                                                always cool, calm, and collected. cant believe some of the negative crap folks leave daily on his threads. bunch of bums.
                                                Comment
                                                • LT Profits
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-27-06
                                                  • 90963

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by SAX27
                                                  LT...folks on this forum who I respect says you have been grumpy lately....you do seem a bit edgy....all good?
                                                  No not at all, at least not that I am aware of. All seems good.

                                                  Comment
                                                  • Ghenghis Kahn
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                    • 19734

                                                    #26
                                                    rlm on cleveland...
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SAX27
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 07-03-15
                                                      • 1324

                                                      #27
                                                      That's funny....handshake back to you!!! In the words of all beauty pageant contestants "All we need is World Peace"!!
                                                      Comment
                                                      • blackHIPPY
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 10-01-14
                                                        • 3973

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Ghenghis Kahn
                                                        rlm on cleveland...
                                                        welp
                                                        Comment
                                                        • LBallday
                                                          SBR Hustler
                                                          • 05-13-16
                                                          • 57

                                                          #29
                                                          Followed you since the AM on the Clevland game LT.. All the Sharks on Reds... Let's get this.... Lead going into that great bullpen of the Reds is a wonderful thing
                                                          Comment
                                                          • smitch124
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 05-19-08
                                                            • 12566

                                                            #30
                                                            Do you still have that bird? Maybe that is annoying you?
                                                            Comment
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