DFoster Thursday Picks/Leans, 87-70-3 +34.20 units

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  • DFoster
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-02-09
    • 712

    #1
    DFoster Thursday Picks/Leans, 87-70-3 +34.20 units
    TEX/OAK over 10.5 -106 --- 1.5 units
    TEX TT over 5.5 +113 --- 1.5 units

    I had this going yesterday and will go with it today. The wind is blowing at 20mph which is always a good thing in TX. Braden is throwing and has thrown well, but that should change against the Rangers...a team that is hitting .355 with a .399 OBP against lefties in the last 10 games (averaging 10.43 runs per 9).

    Other picks to come
  • DFoster
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 03-02-09
    • 712

    #2
    Current leans:

    FLA ML (maybe reverse RL as well)
    ANA ML (+200? Ortega has been terrible..but nice value here)
    KC ML (Davies had a terrible outing in his last start but had a very nice string of allowing under 4ER)
    TB ML (TB has been solid at home in the last year, Garza fairs well against BOS)
    NYY TT over 5 (if I can get it matched at matchbook)

    There are a few games I have yet to even look at..
    Comment
    • EaglesPhan36
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 12-06-06
      • 71662

      #3
      Not that Padilla might not still give up a ton of runs, but that wind in Arlington is blowing in from right and across I think from left to right, so not blowing out. Just wanted to pass that along for any of you weather freaks.
      Comment
      • DFoster
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 03-02-09
        • 712

        #4
        Originally posted by EaglesPhan36
        Not that Padilla might not still give up a ton of runs, but that wind in Arlington is blowing in from right and across I think from left to right, so not blowing out. Just wanted to pass that along for any of you weather freaks.
        I heard it was blowing out directly to center field. Either way, win in Arlington is usually a good thing and hope it helps the runs tonight.
        Comment
        • laxdjock
          SBR MVP
          • 09-15-07
          • 4074

          #5
          We are on the same side for FLA & ANA. I looked at the KC RL & ML, but I didn't see a great value in it (not sold on Davies), so I instead laid the money on the Over, which at the time was -115, but it is now -130. I don't like paying the vig, but I think it has a good shot of going over with a decent day from Davies, so if he blows up you are covered.
          Comment
          • DFoster
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 03-02-09
            • 712

            #6
            FLA ML through 5 innins +108 --- 1 unit (I hate their bullpen and am not going through it again)
            FLA rev RL +171 --- 1 unit

            The Marlins have done well at Wrigley in the past and I really like Chris Volstad. With the Cubs having so many injury issues right now, I'll take the Marlins with the + money and run with it. I hate betting against my team but money is money.

            ARI ML +105 --- 1 unit
            ARI rev ML +157 --- .5 units

            I like Scherzer in this game and think the DBacks hit Suppan pretty good. I know the Brewers have won 8 of their last 9 but this pitching matchup looks like one in the DBacks favor for tonight.

            TB ML +105 --- 1.5 units

            Garza has done well against Boston in the past and the Rays have dominated at home since the beginning of last year. Beckett is coming off an awful start against the Yankees and I'm hoping it continues tonight.

            SD/LAD over 9 -123 --- 2 units

            Two questionable starters today...two teams that have been scoring pretty consistently, though not in massive amounts. I see a high scoring game tonight as the over has cashed 20 out of 28 games between the two teams when playing in LA.

            NYY TT over 5 -157 --- 2 units

            I hate laying this much but Ortega should give up runs tonight...I want to play ANA at +200 but haven't pulled the trigger based on Ortega and his triple-A numbers and first start of the year.

            KC TT over 5 -107 --- 2 units

            Brian Burres sucks. KC is hitting lefties very nicely. KC will hit lefty Burres. Team total cashes.

            I'm tempted to go with the Cardinals today but haven't pulled the trigger. Ryan is hurt, Ludwick may not play...tough decisions here. I think Pujols mashes Daniel Cabrera...I just noticed that if I make a play on the Cardinal game, I will have a card that represents every game tonight in one way or another I still may take a small shot on Anaheim for tonight.
            Comment
            • theplagy
              SBR MVP
              • 04-21-09
              • 1915

              #7
              i like KC over 5 as well

              Comment
              • laxdjock
                SBR MVP
                • 09-15-07
                • 4074

                #8
                It looks like we are on the same side for most:

                ATS / ML / Etc
                STL v WASH Over 10 -110, 1 unit
                AZ ML +102, 1 unit
                SD v LAD Over 9 -126, 1 unit
                TOR v KC Over 9½ -115, 1 unit
                LAA ML +205, 1 unit
                FL -1½ +170, 2 units

                Parlay of the Day
                FL -1½ & LAA ML +723, 1 unit
                Comment
                • DFoster
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 03-02-09
                  • 712

                  #9
                  Originally posted by laxdjock
                  It looks like we are on the same side for most:

                  ATS / ML / Etc
                  STL v WASH Over 10 -110, 1 unit
                  AZ ML +102, 1 unit
                  SD v LAD Over 9 -126, 1 unit
                  TOR v KC Over 9½ -115, 1 unit
                  LAA ML +205, 1 unit
                  FL -1½ +170, 2 units

                  Parlay of the Day
                  FL -1½ & LAA ML +723, 1 unit
                  Nice. I just looked at Cocknocker's picks and he matches up pretty well, which is always nice to see. I like the Cardinal over. If you don't think the Cards win, I'd say there's a high chance it moves over 10.
                  Comment
                  • djpremier36
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-11-08
                    • 3479

                    #10
                    Good luck DFoster!

                    I'm on FLA, ARI and TAM as well.
                    Comment
                    • laxdjock
                      SBR MVP
                      • 09-15-07
                      • 4074

                      #11
                      Cabrera is crap, but +135 for the STL -1.5 RL doesn't seem like a good value with a weak pitcher up for STL. At least the Over doesn't discriminate on who gets shelled.
                      Comment
                      • DFoster
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 03-02-09
                        • 712

                        #12
                        Originally posted by laxdjock
                        Cabrera is crap, but +135 for the STL -1.5 RL doesn't seem like a good value with a weak pitcher up for STL. At least the Over doesn't discriminate on who gets shelled.
                        Exactly

                        Now I just hope that Texas/Oakland start scoring!
                        Comment
                        • laxdjock
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-15-07
                          • 4074

                          #13
                          Originally posted by DFoster
                          Now I just hope that Texas/Oakland start scoring!
                          I laid off that game (as I'm already @ 6 games, which is 1 more than my normal cap)....but I think they have a fair shot at hitting it.

                          I need KC to start putting up some runs....as I have them at o9.5.
                          Comment
                          • DFoster
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 03-02-09
                            • 712

                            #14
                            Wow, Braden shut down Texas while giving up 9 base runners in 5 innings...
                            Comment
                            • laxdjock
                              SBR MVP
                              • 09-15-07
                              • 4074

                              #15
                              KC cashed for both of us....Nice!

                              How strong do you feel about TB...here is my dilemma:

                              Pros
                              TB is strong at home
                              Garza is a solid pitcher
                              The ML isn't much of a value, but the RRL is sitting at -1.5 +190, which I think is a pretty good value.

                              Cons
                              Beckett can still pitch a solid game, though he's been spotty thus far
                              BOS is hanging some serious batting numbers
                              I don't trust TB's bats to put up a ton of runs, maybe 5 on a good night.....which would mean Garza would have to hold BOS to 3 runs, and the TB bullpen would have to hold up.

                              Thoughts?
                              Comment
                              • DFoster
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 03-02-09
                                • 712

                                #16
                                I'm counting on Garza to have a nice game. The Bo Sox bats are doing well, but Garza is solid and even better at home. I love the Rays at home since the beginning of last year and hope that trend continues. I would take the run line but I don't like taking home run lines on teams that aren't scoring a ton of runs. This game should be close but I really like Garza to outpitch Beckett tonight. The Rays were 10-3 against the Sox at home last year with Garza going 2-0.
                                Comment
                                • laxdjock
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-15-07
                                  • 4074

                                  #17
                                  The TB RL is +1.5 -160 (yuck). I think you mean the RRL, which is at -1.5 +190.....which I'd take a flyer on, but I was stupid and tried that last night with someone and got burned. I may just throw down another unit on the AZ ML, which I really like. It pays slightly less than even money.
                                  Comment
                                  • DFoster
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 03-02-09
                                    • 712

                                    #18
                                    I like the AZ ML quite a bit...probably not a bad choice.
                                    Comment
                                    • DFoster
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 03-02-09
                                      • 712

                                      #19
                                      Adding:

                                      Cubs under 9.5 +103 --- 1.5 units

                                      I want to play a LAD ML but probably won't...I've been bored all day at work and have been capping during my down time. I like doing it but I don't like making so many plays in a given day like I have been...I may start capping my plays at 5/day and take my best.
                                      Comment
                                      • laxdjock
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-15-07
                                        • 4074

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by DFoster
                                        Adding:

                                        Cubs under 9.5 +103 --- 1.5 units

                                        I want to play a LAD ML but probably won't...I've been bored all day at work and have been capping during my down time. I like doing it but I don't like making so many plays in a given day like I have been...I may start capping my plays at 5/day and take my best.
                                        That's what I try to do each day. Today I think I'm on 6 different games....but I think they are all pretty good. FL is my play of the day, so I went 2 units on that. I max out at 2 units, as I am trying to grind out MLB winnings and not have big swings.
                                        Comment
                                        • laxdjock
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 09-15-07
                                          • 4074

                                          #21
                                          Well....cashed my STL 1st 5 for 1 unit, though I'm kicking myself for TB....good luck!
                                          Comment
                                          • laxdjock
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 09-15-07
                                            • 4074

                                            #22
                                            Marlins blow my 1st 5 innings...grrr.

                                            Back to back HRs...
                                            Comment
                                            • DFoster
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 03-02-09
                                              • 712

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by laxdjock
                                              Well....cashed my STL 1st 5 for 1 unit, though I'm kicking myself for TB....good luck!
                                              Thanks. Nice job with STL. I was debating that one for sure.
                                              Comment
                                              • DFoster
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 03-02-09
                                                • 712

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by laxdjock
                                                Marlins blow my 1st 5 innings...grrr.

                                                Back to back HRs...
                                                Same happened to me...
                                                Comment
                                                • theplagy
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 04-21-09
                                                  • 1915

                                                  #25
                                                  ARI and FLA

                                                  going down the wire...
                                                  Comment
                                                  • laxdjock
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 09-15-07
                                                    • 4074

                                                    #26
                                                    2-2....so I still have a shot at -1.5 FL.....come on FISH!!!!

                                                    Kevin Gregg on the Cubs, that is good news for the Fish!

                                                    He skipped his first pitch..
                                                    Comment
                                                    • laxdjock
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 09-15-07
                                                      • 4074

                                                      #27
                                                      Skipped another ball.....

                                                      Freaking AZ, I need them to pull out the ML win.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • laxdjock
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-15-07
                                                        • 4074

                                                        #28
                                                        AZ just butchered it. Thankfully my first 5 bet will cover if they can't come back.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • laxdjock
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-15-07
                                                          • 4074

                                                          #29
                                                          4 runs so far in the LAD game....come on runs!
                                                          Comment
                                                          • laxdjock
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 09-15-07
                                                            • 4074

                                                            #30
                                                            DEFEEEENSE~!!!!!!!!!!!!

                                                            Dude Alfredo just saved the game for the Fish!!
                                                            Comment
                                                            • jellobiafra
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 03-08-09
                                                              • 6291

                                                              #31
                                                              Another monster day. You're an animal!

                                                              Comment
                                                              • DFoster
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 03-02-09
                                                                • 712

                                                                #32
                                                                TEX/OAK over 10.5 -106 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
                                                                TEX TT over 5.5 +113 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
                                                                FLA ML through 5 innins +108 --- LOSS -1.00
                                                                FLA rev RL +171 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.71
                                                                ARI ML +105 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
                                                                ARI rev ML +157 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
                                                                TB ML +105 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.58
                                                                Cubs under 9.5 +103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.55
                                                                SD/LAD over 9 -123 --- 2 units - WIN +1.63
                                                                NYY TT over 5 -157 --- 2 units - WIN +1.27
                                                                KC TT over 5 -107 --- 2 units - WIN +1.87


                                                                Today's results
                                                                6-4 +4.11
                                                                Comment
                                                                • laxdjock
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 09-15-07
                                                                  • 4074

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Keep adding on those units!

                                                                  6-4, +3.79 for me.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • GGPLAYER
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 03-26-09
                                                                    • 2981

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by DFoster
                                                                    TEX/OAK over 10.5 -106 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
                                                                    TEX TT over 5.5 +113 --- 1.5 units - LOSS -1.50
                                                                    FLA ML through 5 innins +108 --- LOSS -1.00
                                                                    FLA rev RL +171 --- 1 unit - WIN +1.71
                                                                    ARI ML +105 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
                                                                    ARI rev ML +157 --- .5 units - LOSS -.5
                                                                    TB ML +105 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.58
                                                                    Cubs under 9.5 +103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.55
                                                                    SD/LAD over 9 -123 --- 2 units - WIN +1.63
                                                                    NYY TT over 5 -157 --- 2 units - WIN +1.27
                                                                    KC TT over 5 -107 --- 2 units - WIN +1.87

                                                                    Today's results
                                                                    6-4 +4.11
                                                                    Did'nt you go 6-5?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • DFoster
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 03-02-09
                                                                      • 712

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by GGPLAYER
                                                                      Did'nt you go 6-5?
                                                                      I count ML/RL wins and losses as 1. If I win both ML and RL, I went 1-0, if I lose them both then I go 0-1. If they have differing results, I then count it as 1-1. I do that so my record is more of a true account of my picks. I just don't think I should go 2-0 on the same game, or 0-2, when I am essentially picking the same team. I have mentioned in previous threads that I like doing reverse run lines when I see value on big dogs...but that they are obviously a low percentage play.
                                                                      Comment
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