Well, not a good day for me. Only Chicago will win so negative day. I will put the numbers later, still Astros and Cubs playing
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Comment -
Take Houston -1, -127 at 5dimes. 500$ to win 395$
Take Texas over 4, -104 at pinnacle. 500$ to win 480$
Take Cubs, +111 at pinnacle. 500$ to win 560$
-455$ yesterday.
YTD: 8-4, +2605$Comment -
Angels & Nats I like so far, Giants and toronto I also like but pricey... I try not to bet anything higher than 135-140... I am not much of a parlay person in bases but may ride those 2 solo plays, then throw giants & toronto in a 2 teamer.... Thoughts??Comment -
My thoughts about the ones you asked:
I would say stay away from the Nats. For me Roark is overperforming and sooner or later he is going to be punished. I like Kansas in this one, but I dont know if the odds are enough to jump in.
Angels sounds great to me. We said yesterday that going against the Brewers is always easy and I think that Tropeano is reliable enough to go with the Angels in this one. Junior Guerra is 31 YO and he is pitching in the majors for second year so nothing more to say. His numbers in the AAA are not good either
Toronto with such odds ... for me a stay away, at least the bets for the ML
Giants, I like it but the odds are ridiculous. Samardzija is a pitcher that can give you amazing performances and the next day he pitches like a kid. I think that the over for the Giants could be a good play in this one but the line is probably too high (5).Comment -
My play on the Nats is you have a hot pitcher in Roark, and I get that he is may be over performing, but there are a bunch of guys in the majors right now who we have been waiting to come back to earth and they remain hot.. Also, I believe KC has lost 6 of 7, so for me its getting a team that is playing well right now who has a hot pitcher on the mound, against a team that has lost 6 of 7Comment -
Good luck with that then. I wont play Nats, thats for sure. If I play something here, could be the over for Kansas, Kansas ML or the over for the match but I dont know yet.
What I am sure about is that one of my plays will be against the Cubs todayComment -
The Bucs were +185 this morning it was so hard to resist putting atleast something on them and then I glanced at the cubs and saw the name Arrieta... I just cant pull the trigger betting against him right now... Good luck I hope whatever you play hits, for me it is so hard to bet against him because even if Arrieta does have a bad outing(his last start was not great) they still have the fire power on offense to outscore their opponents, especially in a match up against Niese... Very tempting but for me, I am not paying the price to bet on him, but I cant fade him either, but hope you win whatever you decide to playComment -
One person I do like to fade is the FAKE ACE Matt Harvey but this is not the spot to play against the MetsComment -
Pick 13:
Take Pittsburgh over 2.5 runs, -118 at pinnacle. 500$ to win 425$
I could be wrong but this is easy to explain. This is not Wright Field and I dont expect Arrieta posting another shutout. It is true that we are talking about the most dominant pitcher in the league at this moment but Pittsburgh' offense has been fantastic so far against righties and I want to back them here.
The problem with Pittsburgh is that I dont trust their defense, and I dont trust Niese either so the over for them is probably the best play for what I am expecting.
The Cubs have a great bullpen, or at least they are performing really well this year, way better than the past season. The problem is that their best pitchers in the bullpen had workload yesterday. Strop, Grimm, Warren and Wood pitched and we are talking about their best players there. In the last match against Atlanta Grimm and Wood played too so I see here tiredness for some of them if Arrieta cant post a long outing today.
Taking a quick look to the h2h numbers between the Pirates and Arrieta we can see that McCutchen is .348 in 23 at bats and Joyce .556 in 9 at bats so I expect him playing today.
Arrieta's numbers are simply impressive but, who can expect him playing all the time like that? As I said, Pittsburgh is hitting really well this year and they will be looking for revenge after past seasons' defeat in the wild card game where Arrieta was simply fantastic. 3 runs are not a crazy number and I think that it worth a try when the odds are that high for just 3 runs.Comment -
This will be the third time in four overall meetings the Pirates have seen Arrieta with him holding them scoreless in 16 straight innComment -
Pick 14:
Take Detroit, +121 at 5dimes. 500$ to win 605$.
I think that we are going to see a better face from Verlander this season. Cleveland struggling with his offense so I think we have a great chance to back the Tigers.
Cleveland somehow is not able to score runs. In the last matches we saw how they failed to win and it was because of their offense. They dont like to hit against righties and I expect Verlander stoping them today. On the other side, Tomlin is not a pitcher that I like. I never considered him a reliable pitcher and a proof of it is that he was never in the same position. He has been in the bullpen for the Indians, in the starting rotation and being called up and down all these years with the Indians. He is having a good season but in his last outing we already saw his real faced.
Detroit seems to be hitting better now and his last matches were really good for them, scoring runs in a consistent way. I love to see their lineup with players like Cabrera, Kinsler, JD Martinez, Justin Upton, Victor ... enough firepower to punish Tomlin, thats for sure.
I am concerned just because one thing, their bullpen. Detroit had never a reliable bullpen but somehow this year they are playing well so why not.
The odds are simply big enough to take the risk imo.Comment -
I am also on the over in Cubs, good luck Blink!Comment -
Pick 15:
Take Baltimore, -119 at pinnacle. 500$ to win 420$
Easy explanation here. Yankees are struggling with his offense that has been even worse against righties and today they are going to face Tillman, a righty. Baltimore loves to hit against righty and Severino is righty.
Severino has been playing awful so far this season, 0-3 record with 6.86 ERA. Tillman has been fantastic in his last outings with just 1 bad game, against Texas. He is 2-1 with 3.24 ERA.
Yankees has been the biggest dissapointment with Houston this season and for me it is easy to go against them. Baltimore will be without Hardy, a big missing, but at this moment I has no doubts about the side that sounds better here.Comment -
Sharp money on baltimore? Late odds movementComment -
1-2 again. A bad day with the poor performance from Verlander and Arrieta posting another shutout in his outing against the Pirates
-580$ yesterday
YTD: 9-6 +2025$
Today I am thinking in raising the stakes to 1000$ or at least 800$. I have to think about it but I always have better results with the early gamesComment -
Pick 16:
Take under 8.5, +100 at 5dimes. 1000$ to win 1000$.
Cozart will be back in the lineup but I think that the Reds needs something more than him to change the bad moment where they are in. The team lost 8 of the last 9 games played and they need a win here to avoid the sweep against the Giants.
Peavy is another problem for the Reds. He has been dominant against them historically and his numbers are pretty impressive with a 7-0 record and 2.38 ERA lifetime against Cincinnati. It is true that the start of this season has been terrific for the right handed pitcher, but I have to think that the things will change sooner or later for the veteran. Cincinnati seems to be the perfect place to do it, against a team that he had never a problem with in 12 starts. The h2h against players like Votto (.167) or Bruce (.000) are amazing.
For the Reds it is Straily who will take the mound. He is 0-1 with a 3.31 ERA and he faced San Francisco once with a good performance. I was not expecting him having a good season at all, but so far he is playing well and we saw him facing the Giants before with good results so with the lineup the Giants are taking out, I dont expect that changing for this one.
San Francisco is one of the teams to be aware of this year. They have some of their injuried players back, a very powerful lineup and a reliable bullpen. I think they have a very complete roster and they will be for sure one of the teams fighting to reach the World Series at the end of the year. The lineup is out already and they are without Posey, Duffy, Pagan and Panik.
As always, the stadium is great to see long balls and that makes the under a little bit risky, but with the lineup the Giants are taking out, the Reds in an offensive slump and expecting a good match from both pitchers ... I like the under.Comment -
Pick 17:
Take Angels to win, -133 at SBO. 1000$ to win 750$.
Yesterday we were talking here about the Brewers and I said that for me this is the worst team in the league, even worse than the Braves or the Twins that have worse records. Thats what I think about this Milwaukee team. They won 3 in a row so it is time to fade them.
Angels are not in their best moment but they still have Trout. With him, Pujols, Calhoun, Escobar, Simmons, Ortega ... it is unacceptable to have a negative record. I was expecting them to take flight here in Milwaukee, teh perfect place to do it, but so far they didnt. I think that today the pitchers matchup is pretty favourable for them and thats why I trust them here.
Santiago has been playing really well this year. His last outing was not that good, but the rest of his performances were pretty solid this year. He is 2-1 with 3.34 ERA in 32.1 inning pitched this year. I like how he was playing and lets hope that his last appareance was just a slip.
Milwaukee with Zach Davis, a pitcher that has been probably one of the worst starters in the league so far. 0-3 with 8.78 ERA in 3 starts. Just 13.1 innings played because he was pulled early in every of his starts this year. Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Miami were the teams that punished him ... Maybe we can understand that Pittsburgh made him looks ridiculous but how about Miami and Philadelphia...
I think that the Angels are going to score without problems with Davis on the mound. Brewers bullpen is not good either so the offense shouldnt be a problem. Santiago is a reliable pitcher at this moment and I think he can stop a weak team like the Brewers at bat. Only Carter has a good h2h against him, .357 in 14 at bats with 2 home runs.
For me, the over 4.5 for the Angels is a good choice too but I think that this ML sounds better because even with the Angels not scoring 5 runs or more could be covered because the Brewers are just shit at offense.Comment -
Pick 18
Take San Diego in 5 innings, +102 at pinnacle. 1000$ to win 1020$.
I dont want to see the mounds coming in play so I am taking the bet for the first half of the game, 5 innings.
San Diego will go with his pitching prospect Cesar Vargas. This kid was "stolen" from the Yankees farm and he was underated his whole life. It is true that we are talking about a pitcher that barely reaches to 90mph with his fastball and I think that is reason enough to underate him, or that is what it seems. He has a pretty good control and command, mixes really well fastballs with low speed balls and that is not easy to face for the batters. A grond ball guy that I think is going to stop the Rockies offense that depends heavily on the long balls.
Chatwood has been playing pretty solid after his Tommy Johns surgery but he had already troubles facing Kemp, Jay or Upton that has a good h2h against him. This year he is 3-2 with a 2.78 ERA
Colorado is 3-7 in their last 10 games and 4-9 in his last 13. Not a good moment for them now that the Story boom seems to be over. Nolan Arenado has been their best player by far, but we will see how he is against Vargas.
I like San Diego here. The odds movement has been huge in the Rockies favour and that is funny. As I said, Vargas is a very underated player and seems that the odds movement is just because the people want to fade him. Well, I like to back him here. Lets avoid the bullpen taking the first half win.
Good luck!Comment -
I will publish more picks for the rest of the matches but it will be later and with regular stakes (500$). Good luck!Comment -
Tailed you on Reds under.... Peavy is garbageComment -
San Diego couldnt score a penetrating run in the first 5 innings and Colorado scored just 1 run, with a hit by their pitcher ... lucky me
Angels won
Bad day so far. I will post 3 more plays for today, the pick of the day in the NBA and 2 moreComment -
Texas +171 at 5dimes
Arizona +170 at 5dimes
Easy explanations here. Aaron Sanchez and Fernandez are not playing that well to expect them as the big favourites in this matchups. I think that at least one of these two teams is going to win so I want to play both dogs looking at least to hit one of them, that would be enough to make profit.
Cleveland -1.5 , +115 at pinnacle.
Penguins +106 at 5dimes
So today the Penguins are not favourites just because the Caps are 2-1 down in the series. Suspended players are not that important to see such odds movement imo.
Must take.
In the previous matches I think that we saw a very good Penguins team that were better than the Caps and now they have a huge team to put a 3-1 lead that I dont expect them wasting it.
Raptors -4.5, +100 at pinnacle
It is tomorrow, but I want to take it now.
I think that Toronto has a great chance to make finals this year, at least the conference finals. Miami shouldnt be a big problem for them but the first match they lost, so now I expect the team steping forward.
For me the difference between both rosters is huge and the home court advantage should be determinant. Now it is Miami the team leading and thats why I think that Toronto has here a must win. Short spread and I am pretty sure that they will finish the match covering it.Comment -
first, just want to say thank you for posting your plays. But, hope you are wrong about Pit-Was game. I think last game Murry was standing on his head for stopping all these shots. I don't think Ove will do everything he can to tie this series. And I can't stand Cindy Crosby. If the odds stays at -119 or above, I gonna go against you. If it drops back below -119, I'm gonna lay off. (Odds from Pinny- -119 is what I call the breaking point or point of no return). GL to you.Comment -
first, you are welcome
the Caps scored first but now Pens are leading but just 2-1. Its going to be a tight match but I cannot see the Penguins as underdog with them playing at home and with the level they are showing in this playoffs. On paper the Caps were favourite at the beginning of the series but it is never easy to win playing away in playoffs.
What did you do at the end?Comment -
I just took St Louis
St Louis -169 at pinnacle
It wont be easy but I think St Louis will take a win here.
Jaime Garcia has been pretty solid the whole year and St Louis has a good offense, good enough to put some runs facing a pitcher like Eickhoff.
The Phillies pitcher is doing a great season but I dont expect him posting shutout here while I think Garcia is going to stop very well the Phillies offense. I expect them scoring 1-2 runs, 3 maximum.
The odds are good enough to take the Cards here.Comment -
Everything as expected. Only Rosenthal was not on the same page, but the Cardinals won 4-0
I will post my plays in the next 30 minutes or soComment -
Take Cincinnati -104 at pinnacle
Kind of crazy to see such odds for the Reds when Milwaukee is probably the worst team in the league. It is not the first time that I say this and it is because I am pretty sure about it.
Simon is doing a poor season so far but he is not that bad to have a 13.50 ERA and 0-3 record. The numbers have to get better in the next months and I think that Milwaukee is probably the best team to face when a pitcher is struggling. His numbers against Milwaukee are good so thats good news for the Reds. Their offense is very poor and I think that if the Reds can score 4-5 runs, they will win here. Chase Anderson is 1-3 and 5.55 ERA, not playing well at all in the last games and I think we have there the most important thing in this matchup. Anderson is struggling with his game and Cincinnati is not an easy spot to play.
Such odds, must take Cincinnati imo.Comment -
Take Detroit over 4 runs, -115 at pinnacle
Bauer on the mound and with Detroit hitting really well against righties so I want to take their over. I would take their win, but I dont know Fulmer that well to trust him so ... this is the reasonable move for me.
We have pretty good h2h for the Tigers vs Bauer:
Cabrera is .294 in 17 AB
Castellanos is .294 in 17 AB
Kinsler is .368 in 19 AB
JD Martinez is .438 in 16 AB
Victor Martinez is .278 in 18 AB
Iglesias is .400 in 4 AB
I really like this over with Trevor Bauer on the mound. He struggled in his first outing of the season and I think we have the Tigers batting better and better everyday.Comment -
NHL!!!
Take under 1.5 goals firs period in St Louis vs Dallas, -132 at pinnacle
I am expecting a tight match in here. The odds for St Louis are a joke, but I have them to win the Stanley Cup in the bracket so I dont want to bet against them (My money is on Tampa Bay, I took them when they were +2300 but now without Stamkos ...).
St Louis is a great team defensively and I expect a slow start in this match. Dallas has enough firepower to put the Blues in troubles and I think that the home side knows that very well and they should be afraid of that, so I guess they will try to avoid giving them too many scoring chances. That said, I expect a slow first period so 2 goals are too many into my eyes.
Only the powerplay goals could be a problem here for me, but we all know how the teams try to avoid the penalties in this moment of the season. I would take the under 5 for the match with such odds but the late minutes are always dangerous and 5 is a short line so I prefer this one.Comment -
Last bet of the day for me:
Take Arizona over 3.5 runs, -116 at pinnacle
Conley almost threw a no hitter the other day but we all know that he is not that good. Arizona is offensively good enough to put him in troubles and the bookie is asking us for just 4 runs with great odds.
So far this season, Arizona is the second best team in the league against lefties with 44 runs scored in 290 at bats, avg .269 and 16 home runs. The rightie (batter) vs leftie (pitcher) is very favourable for them with 7 righties in the lineup, this one:
1. Jean Segura (R) 2B
2. Brandon Drury (R) 3B
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 1B
4. Welington Castillo (R) C
5. Yasmany Tomas (R) LF
6. David Peralta (L) RF
7. Chris Owings (R) CF
8. Nick Ahmed (R) SS
9. Robbie Ray (L) P
I like it. Goldy has to step forward but Segura, Drury, Castillo, Yasmani Tomas ... are hitting really well, with an average very close or even better in some cases than .300Comment -
Thank you Salty, you saved my day! At least a push with Castellanos being the man of the match to me. Lucky!Comment
