MLB - Saturday, 4/16/16

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Saturday

Brewers / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Braves +162 (Heritage)


YTD: 24-25, +3.33

[jgold254]

2 MLB Plays Saturday

Brewers / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Braves +162 (Heritage)


YTD: 24-25, +3.33

Get emmmm!

[LT Profits]

60%ers:

Cubs 74% (-285)
Oakland 61% (-156)
Washington 63% (-170)
Pittsburgh 61% (-156)

[Slanina]

When do you put in your plays? Right before you post or earlier? I hardly get your lines at Heritage. Just curious.

[Vinnie Paz]

He bets them the night before

[LT Profits]

When do you put in your plays? Right before you post or earlier? I hardly get your lines at Heritage. Just curious.

A few minutes before yes. I have the -105 across the board option, NOT the cash-back option which is 8-cent lines for sides only, and I also get the 4-cent overnight lines, which are up until 8:00am ET.

[pavyracer]

I think Cubs will be OK today. What got them yesterday was the night game on previous day. They didn't get enough sleep. Hopefully the manager put them to bed early last night. Guys like Fowler and Heyward can't get up early for afternoon games.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

3 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins -117 (Bookmaker)
Brewers / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Braves +162 (Heritage)

[Yazworm91]

Does your model change as lineups are released? Being that Minnesota was +108 last night and now -118

[LT Profits]

Does your model change as lineups are released? Being that Minnesota was +108 last night and now -118

Last night I was worried because model was TOO far off real line, model has Minnesota 57% (-133). I felt better about placing the best once I saw line converging to model number while still leaving room to be +EV.

[chosen4th]

I think Cubs will be OK today. What got them yesterday was the night game on previous day. They didn't get enough sleep. Hopefully the manager put them to bed early last night. Guys like Fowler and Heyward can't get up early for afternoon games.

This is the dumbest thing ive read all day. Colorado was in the same boat but had to travel. And if guys like fowler and heyward cannot get up early for afternoon games, that takes out any logic cause guess what, today is a day game

[unusialsusp5]

3 MLB Plays Saturday

Twins -117 (Bookmaker)
Brewers / Pirates UNDER 8 -110 (Heritage)
Braves +162 (Heritage)

two 1-9 teams and an under with 2 pitchers with a combined 17.30 era. i know stats are meaningless somewhat this time of year but.....best of luck on these.

[LT Profits]

two 1-9 teams and an under with 2 pitchers with a combined 17.30 era. i know stats are meaningless somewhat this time of year but.....best of luck on these.

Well, those stats you quoted are pretty meaningless, yes. I don't care if a team is 1-9, each game is its own individual entity. In this case, Jared Weaver grades out to one of the worst pitchers in baseball, Norris actually grades out MUCH better than Koehler and Jungmann and Niese are both better than those early ERAs.

[DigBick86]

with you on the twinkies think they win easy today after they broke their streak yesterday

[pavyracer]

This is the dumbest thing ive read all day. Colorado was in the same boat but had to travel. And if guys like fowler and heyward cannot get up early for afternoon games, that takes out any logic cause guess what, today is a day game

Reds game finished at 11 pm.
Rockies game finished at 5 pm.

Staying up late before a day game is no good.

[jgold254]

I love when people doubt LT's picks in here... That's how I know he has some good ones.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

did atl line really move over 40 cents? what's the deal here?

[Winner_13]

LT, do you notice any changes in the MLB market this year?
Are you having less plays compared to last year are numbers opening up more accurate to your model and moving quicker?

Thanks LT & good luck this year!

[pavyracer]

did atl line really move over 40 cents? what's the deal here?

LT Profits is known to move lines 40 cents overnight.

[LT Profits]

LT, do you notice any changes in the MLB market this year?
Are you having less plays compared to last year are numbers opening up more accurate to your model and moving quicker?

Thanks LT & good luck this year!

It is still April, volume usually picks up mid-May through the end of August. That is when model is based more on actual YTD stats than relying heavier on ZiPS forecasts like now.

[LT Profits]

did atl line really move over 40 cents? what's the deal here?

From Post #13, Norris actually grades out MUCH better than Koehler

Yes there is more to a game than just starting pitching, but still seems like books blew the opener here. Now watch Marlins win 13-1.

[Slanina]

I passed on ATL, my only one all year. Only because line moved 32 cents when I got there. Ouch. Nice day though.

[funnyb25]

Dirtycash never in here with blowies on good days...

[jgold254]

3-0 Nice day, LT.

[Professor1215]

Yes, 3-0 a good place to be, very well done.

Great to read all the "public" commentary before the games went final...

[Ghenghis Kahn]

nice sweep pal.

[newguy]

Nice day LT!