Wednesday - Pair of 5's Sir

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Let's recap yesterday's selections:

Under Padres/Rockies 10.5 -107 (W)
Twins +112 (W)
Braves +103 (W)

3-0 for the night fellas, 14-5-1 over the last 20, with a Vegas trip looming on Thursday.

Stay Threaded and be Contrarian

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Contrarian String Play Selection

Today we take out of our bag, the Contrarian String Play Selection. What the hell is this, you say? Last year we did this, with or I should say against Sabathia. This year, we employ the strategy against Santana.

Santana now is the premier pitcher in baseball with all his great numbers and the NY market and bettors behind him. The line is always going to be -Santana. This requires Santana over the next three starts to win three in a row in order to generate a profit. We go contrarian and we play the, Santana will lose one of the next three.

. The betting amount is important Jello, here it goes. Bet 1/2 Kelly, Double initial Kelly, and if it goes the third game, double the second. Let's use these numbers to explain further. If Kelly is 64 for first game, then 128 the second, 256 the third.

The Contrarian String Play is dedicated to my ardent supporter, Jellobiafra

Selection

Marlins +165

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection II

Tonight the Blue Jays and Royals match up in the, as my friend the TheLock would say, "The game that can't go Over". Linesmakers are putting a premium on the Over play, in a game that both pitchers could throw perfect games which results in a 0-0 tie because the players perish from old age and can't continue. Seriously, this angle where the linesmaker put a premium on the Over where the under is the obvious selection, works for me.

Over Royals 7.5 -105

[jellobiafra]

... in a game that both pitchers throwing perfect games which results in a 0-0 tie because the players perish from old age and can't continue

LOL. Thanks 5s. My own personal handicapper. A guy could get used to this...

[TheLock]

Love the Sting Play vs Johan. And the amazing part is, you're getting +165 when the Marlins have their best starter on the mound.

Do you think the line moves more in your favor as it gets closer to game time as the NY $$$ starts pounding?

[TheLock]

Cantu with 3 jacks in 10 innings.

2-0 Good Guys

[moneyline]

3-2 not-as-good guys ...

[Pair of 5s Sir]

It's Official

The Contrarian placed a couple of earlier selections in order to benefit Jellobiafra in his quest to attend a minor league ball game today. I hope you tailed Jello, for the Contrarios were successfull in the first shot of the Contrarian String Play with Santana. No need to play the string, the Marlins number 1 starter took care of business.

Marlins +165 (W)

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Selection

We find the total angle that is an obvious Over play where the linesmaker puts a premium on the Under. Red Sox/Cleveland sets up for the high scoring matchup as last night resulted in 17 runs scored. Do I need to go any further to explain how the squares hang themselves in these outings.

Under Red Sox 9.5 -113

[djpremier36]

+11.93 units is good capping!

I cap games very much the same as yourself. Not so much focus on the teams or players involved but more about public perception and finding value.

Too many guys out there automatically bet on the Yanks, Red Sox, name brand starters, etc and usually lose their $.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

+11.93 units is good capping!

I cap games very much the same as yourself. Not so much focus on the teams or players involved but more about public perception and finding value.

Too many guys out there automatically bet on the Yanks, Red Sox, name brand starters, etc and usually lose their $.

It is nice to see you here in the thread. This is the first time I have come across your posts. I do appreciate the kind words. As you are aware, I have a certain point of view, combined with sound money mangement. The money management portion is often overlooked.

Again, please drop in again, your views and opposing points of view are welcomed.

[jellobiafra]

I did get your picks earlier 5's. Nice call on the Fish. Thanks.

We ended up ditching the game tonight. Wasn't the pitching matchup I was hoping for after all and the weather sucked. Didn't get home in time to see your last play here, but that's OK. When I was booking the KC over this morning I noticed the similarities in that play and BOS under....so I booked it right then. Maybe I'm starting to see these things similar to the way you view them, in this one case at least. Might be hope for me yet...

[Pair of 5s Sir]

I did get your picks earlier 5's. Nice call on the Fish. Thanks.

We ended up ditching the game tonight. Wasn't the pitching matchup I was hoping for after all and the weather sucked. Didn't get home in time to see your last play here, but that's OK. When I was booking the KC over this morning I noticed the similarities in that play and BOS under....so I booked it right then. Maybe I'm starting to see these things similar to the way you view them, in this one case at least. Might be hope for me yet...

That's good and that's important to see things in order. You start to look for parameters to make wagers and parameters to say no, move on. Looks like KC might rain out, leaving the Under Red Sox the only remaining play. What did you get the Marlins at today?

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Looks like KC is a go.

[BadBeatBodog]

I'm interested to hear how you incorporate Kelly betting into your selections because your methodology does not allow for expected winning percentage or edge.... Oh wait, you only place whole unit wagers. You don't employ Kelly betting. Just an fyi.

<3 the contrarian approach, though

[jellobiafra]

Pshh. I play at the Greek so I only got them at +160.

This is becoming a real problem. I'm going to spread my money around to a couple other books this weekend. The Greek doesn't even offer 10 cent lines! I have an empty account at BetJam that I could easily move some to. I'm thinking I should open an account at 5 dimes as well? Any suggestions would be welcome.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Pshh. I play at the Greek so I only got them at +160.

This is becoming a real problem. I'm going to spread my money around to a couple other books this weekend. The Greek doesn't even offer 10 cent lines! I have an empty account at BetJam that I could easily move some to. I'm thinking I should open an account at 5 dimes as well? Any suggestions would be welcome.

go on the thread under Sportsbook and Industry. But yes, 5 Dimes is very reputable.

[jellobiafra]

Greinke looks especially nasty early.


edit:

But he did just give up a run in the 1st. Hey hey

[TheLock]

Nice play by DeRosa to get the out at first.

CLE 5 BOS 2 in the top 8

[jellobiafra]

And then he boots a DP ball! Ugh.

Anybody else watching the "there's no way this game goes over" game?

[TheLock]

[jellobiafra]

Nice play by DeRosa to get the out at first.

CLE 5 BOS 2 in the top 8

Why'd you have to go and jinx it?

[TheLock]

0-2 count. wow

[TheLock]

Pair I can't empty my private message box (no clue why) and it's full so don't PM me till I get this resolved.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

It's Official

The Indians implode by giving up major runs in the 8th inning. The contrarians go into the losing column on this one.

Under Red Sox/Indians 9.5 -113 (L)

[jellobiafra]

Over by the 5th. Stay hot 5's.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

It's Official

In the game "That can't go Over" it did in fact go Over. The Royals go Over in the 4th inning to allow the contrarians to sit back and enjoy their 2-1 day.

Over Blue Jays/Royals -105 (W)

Let's recap today's selections:

Marlins +165 (W)
Over Blue Jays/Royals 7.5 -105 (W)
Under Red Sox/Indians 9.5 -113 (L)

On my way to Las Vegas boys tomorrow morning for the weekend. Wish me luck and stay contrarian.

Beware O Contrare

[jellobiafra]

Have fun buddy. Thanks for the past few days of winners.

Nice time for you to be rolling into Sin City. They won't know what hit 'em.

Good luck.

[Pair of 5s Sir]

Over by the 5th. Stay hot 5's.

You can spend the rest of the game counting your money.

[Vonnegut]

Nice going Pair. Have fun in LV and stay out of trouble.