Mlb 2016

[mlb]

SBR minds haven't quite made the switch to baseball yet but I thought I would get a thread up for the year. I play MLB most heavily at the beginning and the end and usually take some breaks in the summer, sometimes a week, 2 weeks, a month, whatever. I'm going to try to keep this thread going when I am actively playing. I have had baseball threads in the passed, some up, most down but I need to figure a way to stay disciplined all year with MLB.

My units for baseball are $200. Most plays will be 1-2 units.

Futures and win totals in a bit.

[mlb]

MLB win totals - posted with a local. These are all on credit so they are not eating up any of my bankroll at the moment.

Oakland O 76 -125 (1u)
Balt O 78 -115 (1u)
CWS O 81.5 (1u)
Rocks O 71 -115 (1u)
Phillies O 67 -115 (1u)
Miami O 79.5 -105 (1u)
TB O 82 (1u)
Boston U 87.5 -105 (1u)
Mets U 90.5 -100 (1u)
Pitt U 86 -120 (1u)

[mlb]

World Series Futures:

Cleveland +2000 (1.25u)
Washington +1850 (1.25u)

[mlb]

some starting pitching changing places:

NL to AL-
H. Alvarez Miami to Oakland
D. Fister Wash to Hou
D. Gee Mets to KC
JA Happ Pitt to Tor
I. Kennedy SD to KC
M. Minor Atl to KC
J. Zimmerman Wash to Det

AL to NL -
WY Chen Balt to Mia
J. Cueto KC to SF (been in the NL majority of career)
Shark CWS to SF (been in the NL majority of career)
A. Simon Det to Cinnci

It's no lie the AL seems to be more difficult of a league to pitch in - I tend to like to look for a regression from guys going from the NL to the AL.

2 that I will look to get value on are Fister and Zimmerman.

I also thought it was interesting that KC has 3 starting pitchers coming from the NL - (don't know if it means anything or not)

Anyone have anything to chime in on about this and who am I missing?

[trobin31]

One thing you have to take into account is guys going from NL to AL are facing hitters who have never seen them before, advantage =pitcher.

Imo, Chen should be solid, miami is a large ballpark and NL EAST doesn't exactly have a murderer row of hitting outside of Bryce Harper and David wright. and he comes from AL East where he faced blue jays, yanks and pitched in fenway regularly.

I Remember Shark was fairly good with the cubs a few years back, also Cueto but likely not gonna see much value from them. Outside of Arizona and colorado, they'll have a fair amount of games in pitchers parks.

Fister spent most of his career in AL, if he can get ground balls like before, he could see some early success in the AL. If not, in that sandbox of houston balls will fly out in bunches. I was gonna look to fade him during the second half as he has shown signs of breaking down after a handful of starts, but he has already shown signs in spring training of being the same garbage he was last year. But again, it is just spring training.

Alvarez gets to pitch in oakland, which I think is a good fit for him, but he can never stay healthy.

Good luck this year.

[mlb]

One thing you have to take into account is guys going from NL to AL are facing hitters who have never seen them before, advantage =pitcher.

Imo, Chen should be solid, miami is a large ballpark and NL EAST doesn't exactly have a murderer row of hitting outside of Bryce Harper and David wright. and he comes from AL East where he faced blue jays, yanks and pitched in fenway regularly.

I Remember Shark was fairly good with the cubs a few years back, also Cueto but likely not gonna see much value from them. Outside of Arizona and colorado, they'll have a fair amount of games in pitchers parks.

Fister spent most of his career in AL, if he can get ground balls like before, he could see some early success in the AL. If not, in that sandbox of houston balls will fly out in bunches. I was gonna look to fade him during the second half as he has shown signs of breaking down after a handful of starts, but he has already shown signs in spring training of being the same garbage he was last year. But again, it is just spring training.

Alvarez gets to pitch in oakland, which I think is a good fit for him, but he can never stay healthy.

Good luck this year.

Great points - yeah no real feel on Shark and Cueto with another new team, new contracts, new everything.

Will look to get on some Alvarez off the bat if possible as I like the A's more than most heading into April as well.

[mlb]

World Series Futures:

Cleveland +2000 (1.25u)
Washington +1850 (1.25u)

I'm trying to buy the value with the Nats right away - their April schedule is perceived weak and I could see them being one of the top 3 records in baseball going into May, hence dropping their odds significantly. They have a lot to get figured out as well as figure how they are going to get runs from their aging lineup, but I like the current value.

I just don't see a better price for Cleveland, but I am in love with their staff and I think they win the Central and represent the AL in the world series with those horses. Lineup has to get wrinkled out but I have no faith that these odds improve significantly.

[EXhoosier10]

i dont' really recall seeing WS/futures odds from opening day until ASG and then the stretch run. Do you have access a fewweeks into the season?

[mlb]

i dont' really recall seeing WS/futures odds from opening day until ASG and then the stretch run. Do you have access a fewweeks into the season?

You know - I guess I was just assuming it's like NFL where it resets weekly- I know I have them later in the season but don't recall if they go MIA for a few months .... Interesting

[mlb]

TB -118 (1.5u)

[mlb]

KC +110 (1.5u)

KC NYM U 7.5 +115 (2.5u)

[mlb]

almost had some major late inning variance go against me on opening night!

glad to hold on to that one.

MLB to date:
2-1 (+2.78u)

[KRIT]

GL in MLB mlb.

[mlb]

GL in MLB mlb.

Thanks man - you playing bases this year?

[KRIT]

Thanks man - you playing bases this year?

Mlb has never really been my thing. I'll make plays here and there but nothing much. I'm stuck on jury duty today so looking for some action to pass the time hah.

[mlb]

only played cash games today outside of a small flyer in an opening day tournament, but my cash starters are Kershaw and Iglesias.

[mlb]

Mlb has never really been my thing. I'll make plays here and there but nothing much. I'm stuck on jury duty today so looking for some action to pass the time hah.

gotcha - definitely need some opening day action sitting at jury duty.

[mlb]

have a ton of plays locked in - trying to sort out everything quick and will get posted soon.

[mlb]

Opening Day!

Seattle +115 (2u)
Oak +120 (1.5u)
Wash Atl O 6.5 -115 (1.5u)
TB Tor O 8 (2u)
TB -115 (2u)
Cle Bos U 6 (2u)
Cle -108 (2u)
Cubs LAA O 7 (2u)
LAA +132 (1u)

[mlb]

Balt -118 (1.5u)
LAD Cin +130 (1.25u)

[mlb]

Balt minn O 9 -115 (.5u)

[mlb]

Opening Day!

Seattle +115 (2u)
Oak +120 (1.5u)
Wash Atl O 6.5 -115 (1.5u)
TB Tor O 8 (2u)
TB -115 (2u)
Cle Bos U 6 (2u)
Cle -108 (2u)
Cubs LAA O 7 (2u)
LAA +132 (1u)

Sox - Indians Postponed.

[mlb]

Raining in Baltimore as well - rough weather to start the year --- ha..

also bummed I didn't play my lean on Giants over - Bum not sharp and Peralta putrid early.

[mlb]

Opening Day!

Seattle +115 (2u)
Oak +120 (1.5u)
Wash Atl O 6.5 -115 (1.5u)
TB Tor O 8 (2u)
TB -115 (2u)
Cle Bos U 6 (2u)
Cle -108 (2u)
Cubs LAA O 7 (2u)
LAA +132 (1u)

Gray scratched - play washed.

May end up switching to White Sox depending on number I see.

[mlb]

CWS - 138 (1.75u)

[mlb]

most likely nothing more - would love to get on Colorado in this spot.... but we'll see.

[mlb]

too much love for Iglesias - what was I thinking laying a popular up and coming guy on opening day in dfs

[mlb]

Rocks +190 (1u)

[mlb]

almost had some major late inning variance go against me on opening night!

glad to hold on to that one.

MLB to date:
2-1 (+2.78u)

MLB to date:
8-5-1 (+7.19u)

a nice opening couple of days.

[mlb]

late leans are CWS, Padres and Miami.


early plays:

Cle -105 (1.5u)
Cle U 6 -105 (1.5u)
NYM -120 (1.5u)
NYY Hou U 6 +105 (1.5u)

hoping missing the .5 runs don't matter - going under in both of the shitty weather games.

[RavensFan2k3]

I lean Miami aswell

[mlb]

I lean Miami aswell

good to see! - best of luck if you play it

[mlb]

Royals are the ultimate team to screw with theory the last few years, but I love Syndegaard in this spot. I think he takes off this year - ends as a Top 15-20 pitcher.

We also get KC coming off the high of an opening day win with a rest day in between Let's see if they can get up for it. Chris Young is also on my fade list - I think regression is in his future - his numbers last year were very much an outlier.

[mlb]

Would also lean Rays, but I just don't want to get into a habit of backing teams 3 times in a row or backing teams trying to avoid sweeps - hasn't been my strong suit the last few years.

[mlb]

well those unders didn't work ha