CK's Daily MLB Thread Leans for Monday 4/27/09

[cocknocker]

In today's action I like the following games

Nats+155 When sorry ass teams win one they win more
Nats-1.5 +205 reverse runline
Texas+125 Riding the hot bats
Texas-1.5 +195 Reverse runline Crumbs Play-O-The-Day
Yanks/Tigers over 9.5 You already know what's gonna happen
Seattle+1.5 -120 Green pitcher with good team around him
Wahoos-128 Lee and me make money

So basically there's the 5 games that I like. It's alittle more than I like to play on a given day, but I just couldn't let the crumbs go on some of these wagers. On a usual day I like to play no more than 3-4 games. I had already made my selections and then I heard a screech of brakes and rubber skidding when I got the Indians/Red Sox matchup.

It's a well constructed pick. You have everything there for an upset. A good pitcher, a good hitting team, a team coming into town on a hot streak. It seems that the Indians rise to the level of competition and also play down to the level of competition. The Red Sox ate playing some great baseball right now and if I am not mistaken, they have won something like 9 games in a row. I was hoping to get Cliff Lee with Crumbs, but I have to throw that idea out of the window. It just ain't happenin'


Cleveland Indians will stop the Boston Red Sox winning streak. I am going to wait on this one and play it right before gametime. Right now the line is Cleveland-115.* I woke up this morning and the line is now Cleveland -128 with a majority of bettors on the Sox, of course. I like Cliff Lee against this lineup. And then on top of that, there aren't too many players for the Indians that aren't familiar with Wakefield's pitching.

Wahoos-128 HEAVY

[jellobiafra]

Any thoughts on HOU? No play for you I guess? Nice day today by the way. Great call on the Nats.

[cocknocker]

The Indians game will have some serious reverse line movement on it. I also really like the Marlins today as well

[The_Kid]

Like that Washington pick. Blanton is a gascan waiting to explode at any moment.

[Wilforth]

Fla +135

[The_Kid]

Fla +135

I can't back Florida for awhile after watching their bullpen implode vs the Phillies. The FF innings might be a safer option. GL, Wilforth.

[Flyers09]

cocknocker whats your record so far with the mlb? if you have been counting of course

[cnleaf]

cocknocker whats your record so far with the mlb? if you have been counting of course

CK doesnt have a habit in keeping his record. but he is really good at what he does.

[Flyers09]

CK doesnt have a habit in keeping his record. but he is really good at what he does.

yeh i know he is good, i have checked a few of his plays, j/w is he had a record...no big deal

[tbill11]

Any thoughts on taking the Tigers at +123. Home dogs against Sabathia...I think it's kind of a tossup but might be worth it to get the crumbs.

[anthonydiamondLC]

CK, I'm right there with you on the Nats pick. I think there is tremendous value betting Washington here. Blanton's numbers lifetime against the Nats are not that well. I would never ride Blanton for this much chalk.

[laxdjock]

Definitely on WAS.

[cocknocker]

I just couldn't let the Indians/Red Sox matchup go. Wahoos it is!

[cocknocker]

Any thoughts on HOU? No play for you I guess? Nice day today by the way. Great call on the Nats.

Naw jello,

I thought that yesterday was a good spot to take the Asteroids, and they cashed our ticket yesterday. But today represents a whole new set of problems in Oswalt,who has the Reds number. The Reds have some live bats right now, and Cueto has made a few corrections with his timing and delivery. So many different story lines and issues with this wager. I'm just gonna have to wait it out and catch the Astros again when they aren't supposed to win

[jellobiafra]

Naw jello,

I thought that yesterday was a good spot to take the Asteroids, and they cashed our ticket yesterday. But today represents a whole new set of problems in Oswalt,who has the Reds number. The Reds have some live bats right now, and Cueto has made a few corrections with his timing and delivery. So many different story lines and issues with this wager. I'm just gonna have to wait it out and catch the Astros again when they aren't supposed to win

Thanks for the response. I love the Indians pick tonight. Tailing you on that. Heavy. Lee is due, Boston is not, the line movement is fishy as hell. I think you've sniffed out a good one here.

[solobass]

what's up everybody i have been taking chunks out of the casino's in Detroit, warming up for my next Vegas trip. CK i agree with your astros/reds comments the reds have won me some serious $$$ this year so far. Also alarming is when the line is -105 astros and -115 reds there is always something funky working when both teams are negative money. just back away slowly and put your money elsewhere.

everyone check this link out

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/topstories/todayinweather.html?from=hp_news1#mlb

basically runs down any MLB game affected by weather, it might save you some time.

Anyway.....today i love the padres +103. clearly they are the better team and have lost 2 so they are due. sure the rockies hit well for one damn game but i say who cares. you know my quote, trends are just as likely to end as they are to continue.

Other game, I have the Tigers +120 against the yanks. Tigers have been on the road all year and the crowd will welcome home their first place team. Zumaya stenghens the bullpen and is back to throwing 99 and sounding like a much matured pitcher. Verlander, if he tweaks his mechanics ever so slightly will return to form. Defensively there is no comparison. If Girardi has half a brain he will put someone else in the very cavernous left field of Comerica park instead of Damon and his co-ed softball arm. Psychologically you have two teams on different sides of the coin and the Tigers have an edge here as well. Wind blowing about 20 miles an hour from right field toward third base right now as well.

best of luck today!

[twinky99]

CK, most of the previous matches between Texas and Baltimore has gone over.
what do you reckon about the over in the next game?

[solobass]

CK you need to start a new update and call it the "free chicken dinner alert"

[laxdjock]

I was leaning towards TEX & WAS RRLs, and your support pushed it over. I also parlayed the TEX & WAS RRLs for 1 unit, as I'm up and want to try and have a big day (for me at least).

GL all!

[ragiche]

Plays for tonight's game.

Cle RL (L)

Sea ML (PPD)

Sdg ML (3x) (L)

Mil RL (W)

Tex ML (W)

Lad RL (L)

Flo ML (L)

Was ML (L)

NBA:

Atl +5 (Road woes stops here) (W)

Utah/Lal over 211 (L)

[TAPDATBOOK]

yeh i know he is good, i have checked a few of his plays, j/w is he had a record...no big deal

Hey DUDe, this is a kid stuffs. if you r great at something you don't have to keep your record, let people does that for you. By tailing ck and Mafias, I profit week in and week out . Of course there are some very bad days but overall I am still profiting at the end of the month , this is all I care. And please DO NOT crying like a 5yrs kids if there is a loss day NOONE MAKES YOU TO TAIL ANYONE.

If you are here to stealing picks then stop asking child question.

Just 2 cents, BOL to you today

[Smith]

CK, i follow your posts day in and day out and usually agree with you on the matchups. I just dont understand the pick behind Clevland. The Redsox are hot and their bullpen has done great as of late. With Wakefield throwing tonight and being dominant in his past 2 starts, (with his last start cut short with rain) why do you lean so heavy toward clevland. Lee has been nothing more than aweful so far and he has no confidence right now. I understand that clev is due or that Lee is due, but how can you say that Lee can stop this offense. The Redsox are hitting some of the better pitchers day in and day out right now. They just won 10 in a row. All im saying is that i dont see Clev being a pick here unless they were BIG Dogs and they arent. Why risk it?

[peterpan19]

smith
well to start with there is RLM...most of the people are on Boston and the line got better for them ?... plus as you said everyting points to the Red Sox and they are the dog here today ?... I think ck would say "people are looking for a free chicken dinner here" ... but there is nothing free...

[peterpan19]

games I like today:
Washington
Florida (they will win here today)
LAD -1 (fading Zito again)
ATL (STL is awful on the road)
TX/ Bal over 11 (should be another slugfest)
SD (heavy 10x)

GL

[TAPDATBOOK]

games I like today:
Washington
Florida (they will win here today)
LAD -1 (fading Zito again)
ATL (STL is awful on the road)
TX/ Bal over 11 (should be another slugfest)
SD (heavy 10x)

GL

Peter,

Wtf happen to the Fishy lately? I've been following them and lost in the 9th inning . what make you think they will do today? I want my f.......king money back.

[spal2811]

NBA

CK,

i know your retired from nba for the year but do you have any leans for tonights games? i like the heats -4.5 and hornets -2

[peterpan19]

ok to start with Maine has a 7+ ERA this year... ok he was great in the past against the fish, but this year he looked a bit lost so far... for one I think it should continue today as the fish still have the offensive power to do so...on the other hand the fish have Sanchez pitching for them today...who has a nice year so far and also pitched pretty well against the Mets in the past...yes the pen is horrible but he should give them 6 solid Innings today and you have to believe that the pen sooner or later should hold again...plus can you pass on Sanchez +148 ? and is Maine a -150+ pitcher ?...I say no and take the dog here today...btw I will take the Marlins again on tuesday if they loose today

GL

[TAPDATBOOK]

ok to start with Maine has a 7+ ERA this year... ok he was great in the past against the fish, but this year he looked a bit lost so far... for one I think it should continue today as the fish still have the offensive power to do so...on the other hand the fish have Sanchez pitching for them today...who has a nice year so far and also pitched pretty well against the Mets in the past...yes the pen is horrible but he should give them 6 solid Innings today and you have to believe that the pen sooner or later should hold again...plus can you pass on Sanchez +148 ? and is Maine a -150+ pitcher ?...I say no and take the dog here today...btw I will take the Marlins again on tuesday if they loose today

GL

WTF.............it sounds like you want ur money back too.......... F...u..c...k that I want them back too .......LET DOUBLE UP on the Fishy tonight.......

[TAPDATBOOK]

Hey CK and Mafias,

Houston and Cincy game. 75% public on the Houston RL and 72% public on the Cincy ML, what do you read on this one??? PLEASE HELP ME to UNDERSTAND which team the book will favor on?

Much appreciated for any helps.

[twinky99]

Hey guys, what do you think about Cubs Under for today?

[SportsChic]

Love your picks tonight CK..Im definitely on the Nats, Indians and Texans..Im also playing the Rays..GL

[jellobiafra]

CK, i follow your posts day in and day out and usually agree with you on the matchups. I just dont understand the pick behind Clevland. The Redsox are hot and their bullpen has done great as of late. With Wakefield throwing tonight and being dominant in his past 2 starts, (with his last start cut short with rain) why do you lean so heavy toward clevland. Lee has been nothing more than aweful so far and he has no confidence right now. I understand that clev is due or that Lee is due, but how can you say that Lee can stop this offense. The Redsox are hitting some of the better pitchers day in and day out right now. They just won 10 in a row. All im saying is that i dont see Clev being a pick here unless they were BIG Dogs and they arent. Why risk it?

This is the definition of square thinking. CK is thinking like a sharp. You tapped danced around it yourself. With all those reasons you mentioned for why CLE is the wrong choice, wouldn't you expect them to be dogs tonight? Why is that BOS (+) odds lines just dangling out there like a nice juicy worm on a hook? Don't be a fish.

[jellobiafra]

Hey CK and Mafias,

Houston and Cincy game. 75% public on the Houston RL and 72% public on the Cincy ML, what do you read on this one??? PLEASE HELP ME to UNDERSTAND which team the book will favor on?

Much appreciated for any helps.

I think the run line you are referencing is the dog's line which is HOU +1.5. If that's correct then there's nothing odd about it at all. A lot of people like CIN to win. A lot of people like HOU to stay within 2 runs. Makes sense. I like HOU to win myself.

[thegenix]

Love your picks tonight CK..Im definitely on the Nats, Indians and Texans..

I'm also playing the Cubs. GL!

[wangichu]

Det ml
was ml
cle -1.5
tb ml