Sunday - Pair of 5's Sir

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 05:21 AM

Contrarian Radar

The Royals go on the contrarian radar in the "Is Sidney Ponson any good game". The linesmakers take Gallaraga to a big road number. The squares are hyped on the Gallaraga angle, especially with the Ponson, piss poor performances (how bout that impressive alliteration).

We potentially launch this play after getting the odds in the yesterday Detroit victory, and return getting the odds on the home team. I will wait for line confirmation and report back as gametime approaches.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 07:51 AM

Contrarian Radar II

We put up the second play of the Double Dog Contrarian Play with the White Sox. Halladay gets a ton of money as always, especially after his last outing defeat when the +190 Rangers took him to the test. I do believe that the Jays will play well, but there is too much value on Chicago. The statistical contrarian indicators are plentiful, go look for yourself.

White Sox on the radar.
Royals on the radar.

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 08:02 AM

I really like the KC angle. The White Sox possibility gives me pause only because it would be the second game in a row that you will be fading Halladay. The strategy worked the first time if I remember correctly. Two times in a row would be quite a coup.

I'm playing MIN today as well, fwiw. They have cashed for me two days in a row as a dog on the reverse run line. I couldn't understand why CLE was favored those games and I still can't understand it today. No reverse run line today. Just a straight play but I have to do it. It offends me that the linesmakers have made them dogs for this entire series when MIN has had the better pitcher and the better team in every matchup. It's an injustice that needs to be exploited.

I'll wait for you to confirm your plays and roll with, despite any reluctance on the CWS.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 08:16 AM

Just keep in mind, I really do not consider CWS and KC two separate plays. The DD Contrarian play is looking for value to cash on at least one of the games. Can I find two games with value to cash on. At least one is the question to be asked. White Sox at home, Kansas City at home, +149 +135 respectively. Are you starting to see my picture. Don't bet on a game as if it depends on you continuing on with you life. This will not be the last wager, so it's not crucial. I hope this makes sense?

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 08:23 AM

No. My life is in your hands.

Jokes. Of course I understand. And I won't hold you liable if only one or neither cash. I do this for entertainment. (My bets are in the $50-100 range.) I'm just starting to figure out that it will be a lot more entertaining if it were profitable as opposed to having action on every game. It's not even fun to try to watch 4 or 5 games at once. All you pay attention to is the score and it's kind of a headache, and boring. I'd much rather be focused on one or two games and really get to enjoy the nuances of this sport I love.

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 08:35 AM

5's I was just looking at those lines on the Greek and noticed that both teams have very small juice on the run line (+1.5). CWS is -120 and KC is -130. When I bet run lines the other way I usually hedge it with a money line bet, structured so that the payout from the money line wager equals the amount bet on the run line wager. This moves the line from a pk to -1 situation. If my team wins by 1 I push, but I get plus odds if they were a heavy favorite and win by 2 or more.

Anyway, my thought when I saw these lines was that it might not be a bad idea to play dogs this way too when the juice is so low on the +1.5 run line. It's going to make the payout odds on a win about even money. But if your dogs lose by 1 run it would be a push. Sort of an insurance policy. Any thoughts?

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

5's I was just looking at those lines on the Greek and noticed that both teams have very small juice on the run line (+1.5). CWS is -120 and KC is -130. When I bet run lines the other way I usually hedge it with a money line bet, structured so that the payout from the money line wager equals the amount bet on the run line wager. This moves the line from a pk to -1 situation. If my team wins by 1 I push, but I get plus odds if they were a heavy favorite and win by 2 or more.

Anyway, my thought when I saw these lines was that it might not be a bad idea to play dogs this way too when the juice is so low on the +1.5 run line. It's going to make the payout odds on a win about even money. But if your dogs lose by 1 run it would be a push. Sort of an insurance policy. Any thoughts?

I understand your hedge, but I try to avoid the run line. Legitimate play, but not my cup of tea. That would get me out of my comfort level. It seems you are trying to develop that comfort zone. You will find it, then you have to remain true to that or you will be running around on the game board like a crazy chicken. You will get there, I hope some of the stuff, we have discussed will help.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 09:24 AM

Selection

Double Dog Contrarian Play

White Sox +151
Royals +137

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 09:42 AM

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 10:16 AM

Contrarian Radar II

The LA Angels go on the contrarian radar for a look. Clearly, the contrarian indicators are established with Seattle showing superior statistical information, despite their dog status. Give a look to the Angels.

Blazermaniac · 04-26-09, 11:07 AM

Great to see you Pair....everyone is pounding the over 10 on the Fl/Philly game....I am taking the UNDER.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 11:12 AM

Originally posted by Blazermaniac

Great to see you Pair....everyone is pounding the over 10 on the Fl/Philly game....I am taking the UNDER.

That's definitely contrarian. However, when the linesmakers put an extraordinary large number -125-130 on the over play, you have to watch. I find these to be tricky and can't get a consistent angle. Good Luck.

Blazermaniac · 04-26-09, 11:37 AM

True Pair....right now Taylor is getting kill in the 1st. But manage to get out of the jam with only two score. He needs to settle down....making his 1st start. Once he does that....it should hold. If scores come early...they tapper off as the game goes on. Moyer has not been himself...but hopefully he keeps Marlins in check....to make up for Taylor. We'll see.

BOL on your two plays.

Blazermaniac · 04-26-09, 12:03 PM

I am taking MIN b/c of the money movement and the fact that majority of people on Cleveland. I know is hard going for a sweep and a lot of people are taking it to avoid the sweep but got to go against the #s.

TheLock · 04-26-09, 12:03 PM

Marlins in Full Nosedive Mode but to keep contrarian in nature, they'll make the playoffs. Haha

Good luck today Mr.Pair. I will be "watching" from sidelines

Blazermaniac · 04-26-09, 12:05 PM

backing off MIN as the money movement has changed. So...no go.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 01:24 PM

Halladay shaky start

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 01:38 PM

If Thome would have been even jogging down the line instead of anticipating a double play, it would have been bases loaded with nobody out in the 1st. I guess he doesn't get paid enough to run 90ft.

Blazermaniac · 04-26-09, 01:58 PM

Hermida is killing my under with those shitting errors. Seems it will not hold.

But coming back with two others.

Taking COL/LA under 10 1/2. All their games have gone over except for the 1st one back in LA. Odds will be stack against them. With Marquis pitching....should help.

Next is LAA/SEA under 9. First two have been high scoring. Look for the under as Washburn and Weaver will duel it out.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by Blazermaniac

Hermida is killing my under with those shitting errors. Seems it will not hold.

But coming back with two others.

Taking COL/LA under 10 1/2. All their games have gone over except for the 1st one back in LA. Odds will be stack against them. With Marquis pitching....should help.

Next is LAA/SEA under 9. First two have been high scoring. Look for the under as Washburn and Weaver will duel it out.

As I said earlier, the O/U with the big juice tag can be tricky.

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 02:21 PM

5's are you playing LAA?

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 02:25 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

5's are you playing LAA?

No, I am sitting pat with my DD play.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 02:26 PM

The money management with DD play is crucial. I will muck it up having to lay -141 on LAA. I will let it go.

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 02:56 PM

Yeah, I saw the juice was too high. I think we've got a shot here with the CWS. One out of two would be fine.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Yeah, I saw the juice was too high. I think we've got a shot here with the CWS. One out of two would be fine.

My MLB.TV is locked up, how do we look in these games?

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 03:02 PM

CWS has a runner on in the 7th, tied 3-3. KC is down 3-1 batting in the 7th.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

CWS has a runner on in the 7th, tied 3-3. KC is down 3-1 batting in the 7th.

keep me posted if you don't mind.

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 03:09 PM

Gladly. Both games have gone to the 8th. Same scores. Will update if/when either score changes.

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 03:17 PM

4-3 Toronto. Not looking good for the Contrarians today my friend.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 03:20 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

4-3 Toronto. Not looking good for the Contrarians today my friend.

It's not about today that matters. Unit accumulation over the long term. I do not think in terms of a day or days.

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 03:37 PM

KC with a homer in the 9th. Still down 3-2. (those +1.5 run lines would have come in handy today....

)

jellobiafra · 04-26-09, 03:47 PM

Games over. No miracles.

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 04:17 PM

It's Official

The Double Dog Contrarian Play goes down for the count.

White Sox +151 (L)
Royals +137 (L)

Pair of 5s Sir · 04-26-09, 07:05 PM

Selection

Yankees Under 9.5 +110