DFoster Saturday plays/lean 62-41-1, +36.34 units

[DFoster]

Not as many obvious plays as Friday, but I have yet to actually cap any games. These are my initial leans after just looking at teams, starters, lines, etc. I will post my actual plays tomorrow.

TB ML
TB reverse RL
NYY ML
NYY reverse RL
TOR ML
ATL ML
ATL/CIN under
WAS ML
ARI RL
COL ML
PITT ML
PITT Rev RL
PIT/SD over

Once again, these are just my leans as of now without looking at trends, splits, etc. I will post my picks as soon as I can tomorrow.

[DFoster]

Any thoughts on any games? I like hearing other's thoughts, with me or not.

[The General]

36 units profit. Good going buddy. Kudos

[DFoster]

36 units profit. Good going buddy. Kudos

Thanks. I'm rather new at baseball betting. I have been a die hard fantasy sports player for a few years and know baseball inside and out. I decided to jump in the betting aspect this year and love it. I want to make money and help others do the same.

[dchecks]

DFoster great job!! Always check you and CK out first to see where you guys are leanin for the day.. What time do you make your leans become plays??

[jellobiafra]

D --

I really like PIT with Duke as a dog. Don't get that line to be honest. Guess nobody believes they could actually be decent this year - which they are. Duke is an ace, he's also a LH which matches up well with the Pads middle of the order guys like Giles and Gonzalez. Love it.

I'm also like MIN today as I think the wrong team is favored in that one vs Pavano and the Tribe. Also betting on the Cubs to break their skid and end the Cardinals small streak today. Sean Marshall vs. Mitchell Boggs. Better pitcher, better team in my opinion on all three of these I mentioned.

[DFoster]

DFoster great job!! Always check you and CK out first to see where you guys are leanin for the day.. What time do you make your leans become plays??

I'm going to start getting into everything now. It depends each day on how busy I am at work. I usually cap games all day when time allows and post plays as soon as I play them myself. Some days time may not allow me to post plays a few hours in advance, like today. I'm going to get on it now and hope to have some plays posted within the hour.

[DFoster]

D --

I really like PIT with Duke as a dog. Don't get that line to be honest. Guess nobody believes they could actually be decent this year - which they are. Duke is an ace, he's also a LH which matches up well with the Pads middle of the order guys like Giles and Gonzalez. Love it.

I'm also like MIN today as I think the wrong team is favored in that one vs Pavano and the Tribe. Also betting on the Cubs to break their skid and end the Cardinals small streak today. Sean Marshall vs. Mitchell Boggs. Better pitcher, better team in my opinion on all three of these I mentioned.

I definitely like the Pirates and barring any drastic trends/splits, I see a play on them today. I like MIN and CHC as well and would assume that they'll be part of my card today...but I'll know pretty soon as I'm just now getting into my daily research.

[DFoster]

Play #1:

ATL/CIN under 5 in the first 5 innings -134 --- 2 units

I think Lowe and Arroyo start this game off on the right foot, making it a low scoring affair. Arroyo was killed by the Braves last year but he's been throwing relatively well this season and was much better at home in 2008 than on the road. Lowe had a great outing against the Reds last year at Great American. This is more of a play on Lowe shutting the Reds down than it being a 0-0 game in the 5th. I'm expecting a 3-1 type score at the end of 5. Neither bullpen has been lights out, so the 5 inning line (even with the juice) is the under play here. In addition, the Braves are hitting .207 against right handers in their last 5 games...and Estabrooks has had 18 under games in his last 25 behind the plate.

[DFoster]

Play #2:

WAS/NYM under 5.5 after 5 innings +112 --- 1 unit

Cabrera has actually thrown pretty well this year and Pelfrey dominated the Nationals through 2008 and throws better at home. The ump is 4-0 in overs this year and I have a hunch that may change today as neither team has been lighting up the score board.

[DFoster]

Play #3:

STL/CHC under 10 -108 --- 2 units

The Cardinal offense is hot and the Cubs offense is not. I think Sean Marshall silences the Cardinal offense some today. He dominated them in 11 innings last year and had a stellar outing at Busch. Mitchell Boggs isn't a top prospect but has solid potential. With the Cubs hitting just .229 against right handers in their last 5 games, Boggs could easily shut the door on Chicago. The umpire, Barry, has called 11 unders in his last 14 games behind the plate.

[jjgold]

Foster good write ups

GL Ace

[Bread]

Wudup D. I'm on strictly Operation Fade SBR today, and against you with NYM and Bos RL today.

But good luck on the rest player!

[DFoster]

Play #4:

MIN -1.5 reverse RL +178 --- 1.5 units

I'm a believer in Kevin Slowey and think he becomes a solid starter this year. I don't trust Pavano and think there's a solid chance he implodes tonight. When the Indians have lost, they've lost by 2 or more 9 times out of 11 total losses, with Minnesota winning by 2 or more in their last 4 victories. I've been a fan of reverse run lines in the last few days when the team I like is on the road. I think it has tremendous value when I feel like the line shows value on the away dog.

[DFoster]

Wudup D. I'm on strictly Operation Fade SBR today, and against you with NYM and Bos RL today.

But good luck on the rest player!

I haven't played either game. The leans I posted at the top were made from just looking at the team, pitchers, and lines and not considered plays as I hadn't had a chance to analyze each particular game.

I have looked into the WAS/NYM game and will not be making a play for either team...though the WAS 5 inning ML seems to have a bit of value.

I have not yet looked at the BOS/NYY game.

[Bread]

OK you might wanna consider following me. Went 4-1 on Operation Fade SBR yesterday

[DFoster]

Addition to play #4:

MIN ML +120 -- 1 unit

If I like them on the reverse, I might as well go with a unit on the money line in case it's close.

[jellobiafra]

Love this one as well. Already picked it as one of my 3 plays today. CHC, MIN (maybe a R/L, M/L hedge) and PIT. Good to see you in agreement.

[DFoster]

Play #5:

FLA Marlins ML -129 --- 2 units

Volstad has been very good and did very well against Philadelphia last year in 14 innings of work. The Marlins are 3-0 in Volstad's 3 starts (though 2 were against the Nats) and should look for a victory tonight after getting toasted in the 9th inning last night. Neither team is hitting very well in their last 5 games, but I suspect Chan Ho Park will gt hit hard as the Marlins hit .474 against him in 2008. I'm going to try and do a team total for FLA but those are hard to get matched at matchbook.

[jellobiafra]

Damn. My Braves' bats decided to wake up today. 6-0 in the 2nd.

[DFoster]

Wow, tough start to the day with the Mets rolling with 3 in the first and my WAS under already going down. Oh well, losses are all part of the day. Hopefully my other picks work out. I still have a few games to check out.

[DFoster]

Play #6:

KC ML -110 --- 2 units

Davies has been solid, Miner has not and I expect no changes tonight. I like the Royals at home against a team struggling on the road.

[DFoster]

Play #7

BAL/TEX 11.5 over +110 --- 2 units

Hendrickson has been pitching over his head, or his ERA says so...a 1.93 WHIP will result in runs. He's been hit hard and the runs should come. With Texas crushing lefties in their last 5 games, I expect them to chase Hendrickson early. Scott Feldman has been awful and gets his first start of the year and I imagine it's going to go very badly for Mr. Feldman.

[DFoster]

Play #8

SEA/ANA over 5.5 in 5 innings -103 --- 1.5 units

Ortega will debut tonight and should get roughed up as he's given up 23 hits in 13 innings in triple-A this year. I never have liked Carlos Silva but he has had moderate success against the Angels. I really think SEA can put up this over by themselves if Ortega continues his torrid pitching. Also...the ump is 5-1 in his last 6 on overs.

[DFoster]

Play #9

SEA TT over 4 -154 --- 1 unit

I hate laying -154 but this looks great. Ortega has looked like dog shit in triple-A and I don't see how it gets corrected tonight.

[DFoster]

#10:

TEX team total over 5.5 -102 --- 1 unit

#11

BAL team total over 6 +122 --- 1 unit

This should be a huge slug fest. If its not, I'll be surprised and lose my 4 total units graciously but with these 2 solid offenses going against trash starters in Hendrickson and Feldman, I see a lot of offense. With Texas hitting lefties so well, and Hendrickson getting hit hard and walking a substantial amount of batters, the 5.5 should be an easy hit.

[Casperwaits]

I like the Colorado ML and the Pittsburgh ML. Both teams could have and should have won last night. Both seem like winners to me today.

[DFoster]

I liked the PIT pick initially and would lean that way but I have a hunch not to make a play. There isn't one glaring reason not to, but a bunch of small things that are leading me to leave it alone. Good luck!

I like Ubaldo Jimenez but with LA already crushing him this year, and the Rockies struggling against McDonald...I can't pull the trigger. LA is by far the better team and have done well on the road as opposed to the Rockies 1-3 start at home. After looking at his game, I've come to a pick I actually like quite a bit:

#12

LAD -1.5 reverse RL +198 --- 1.5 units

[DFoster]

Total card for today:

ATL/CIN under 5 in the first 5 innings -134 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
WAS/NYM under 5.5 after 5 innings +112 --- 1 unit
STL/CHC under 10 -108 --- 2 units
MIN -1.5 reverse RL +178 --- 1.5 units
MIN ML +120 -- 1 unit
LAD -1.5 reverse RL +198 --- 1.5 units
FLA Marlins ML -129 --- 2 units
TEX team total over 5.5 -102 --- 1 unit
BAL team total over 6 +122 --- 1 unit
BAL/TEX 11.5 over +110 --- 2 units
KC ML -110 --- 2 units
SEA/ANA over 5.5 in 5 innings -103 --- 1.5 units
SEA TT over 4 -154 --- 1 unit

I hate losing my first play of the day...but hopefully these end up bringing in some more units.

[martinmobley]

ughhh... let's hope for some afternoon good luck after these 2 losses! I followed your lead yesterday and put the LA reverse RL which didn't pan out, but screwed up and accidentally didn't put in the Toronto plays till a couple seconds too late. So pissed!! ....oh well, the sweet isn't as sweet without the sour. GL Today!

[DFoster]

ATL/CIN under 5 in the first 5 innings -134 --- 2 units --- LOSS -2.00
WAS/NYM under 5.5 after 5 innings +112 --- 1 unit - LOSS -1.00
STL/CHC under 10 -108 --- 2 units - PUSH
MIN -1.5 reverse RL +178 --- 1.5 units - WIN +2.67
MIN ML +120 -- 1 unit - WIN +1.20
LAD -1.5 reverse RL +198 --- 1.5 units
FLA Marlins ML -129 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
TEX team total over 5.5 -102 --- 1 unit - WIN +.98
BAL team total over 6 +122 --- 1 unit - LOSS - 1.00
BAL/TEX 11.5 over +110 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
KC ML -110 --- 2 units - LOSS -2.00
SEA/ANA over 5.5 in 5 innings -103 --- 1.5 units - WIN +1.46
SEA TT over 4 -154 --- 1 unit - WIN +.65


-4.54 ---- if LA wins by 1 run or loses
5-7-1

-.07 --- if LA pulls out a 2 run victory
6-6-1

Unbelievable set of games tonight. Many of these losses were tough luck losses which is irritating but expected. To think that I was 1 run away from losing just 3 games and being up over 8 units tonight rather than the bad night I actually had..

BAL/TEX --- needed 12 runs, scored 11
BAL --- needed 6 runs, scored 5...against a trash pitcher in Feldman
FLA --- bullpen blew it...had a chance in the bottom of the 10th with bases loaded and failed
CHC/STL --- Cubs score one in the top of the 9th to make my play a push rather than a win

Things like this happen, but so many in one night is rough. I'll have a few plays for tomorrow but am going to be busy, so I may only get a chance to cap a small amount of games.

[jellobiafra]

Don't sweat it man. That's the beauty of being up 36 units. You can afford a few bad beats.

My MIN reverse R/L hit and it looks like PITT is going to hit. Cubs lost. 2-1 on plays I posted here if PIT holds up. Both wins dogs and one a rev r/l. Too bad I don't have the discipline to stick to only the games I originally picked. Still going to be alright as long as the Lakers cover.

Better luck tomorrow.