DFoster's Thursday picks and leans
Early games:
KC Royals @ CLE Indians
Meche vs Reyes
KC ML +104 --- 2 units
4.5 run 5 inning under -115 --- 1 unit
MIL Brewers @ PHI Phillies
Bush vs Hamels
MIL/PHI over 9.5 +110 --- 2 units
MIL -1.5 reverse runline +244--- 1 unit
NY Mets @ STL Cardinals
Hernandez vs Lohse
NYM +134 --- 2 units
Small parlay --- I'm testing these for the season and don't necessarily put money on these posts:
NYM/STL 9.5 over/over in MIL/PHI and NYM ML --- 1 unit to win 6.9 units
Initial thoughts on some games:
KC/CLE under 8.5 --- love the play here but Hirschbeck has been an over ump in his most recent (10+) behind the plate jobs. Meche should do well but Reyes is a question mark. I think I'll stay away but would definitely lean to the under. With the CLE bullpen, I'm going to put 1 unit on the 5 inning under as I expect Meche to dominate through 5.
CIN ML --- Zambrano absolutley dominated the Reds last year with an ERA well under 2 in 30IP. Harang has a terrible career against the Cubs and at Wrigley. The Cubs are 4-1 off of a loss this year and 10-2 in Z's last 12 when he throws as a home favorite greater than -150. Harang has looked solid but was hit hard in his one road outing. The line looks good for the Reds but after looking at splits and trends, I don't see the value here.
MIL ML --- Dave Bush was a ton better at home than on the road but was hit well by Philly in 2008. Hamels has obviously struggled in the start of the season and has seen a decrease in his velocity. I don't necessarily like Hamels to put it together today and dominate like he did yesterday. If he does, the Brewers won't fair well, if he doesn't, they should win by 2 or more....so I will be taking the reverse runline.
NYM ML --- Hernandez is not what I consider a top starter but he's done fairly well against the Cardinals in the past, and hasn't been dominated by Pujols. Lohse was crushed by the Mets last year which gives some hope here. The Mets are struggling with the bats but I expect them to turn it around today against a starter that I think the public is over-rating currently.
KC Royals @ CLE Indians
Meche vs Reyes
KC ML +104 --- 2 units
4.5 run 5 inning under -115 --- 1 unit
MIL Brewers @ PHI Phillies
Bush vs Hamels
MIL/PHI over 9.5 +110 --- 2 units
MIL -1.5 reverse runline +244--- 1 unit
NY Mets @ STL Cardinals
Hernandez vs Lohse
NYM +134 --- 2 units
Small parlay --- I'm testing these for the season and don't necessarily put money on these posts:
NYM/STL 9.5 over/over in MIL/PHI and NYM ML --- 1 unit to win 6.9 units
Initial thoughts on some games:
KC/CLE under 8.5 --- love the play here but Hirschbeck has been an over ump in his most recent (10+) behind the plate jobs. Meche should do well but Reyes is a question mark. I think I'll stay away but would definitely lean to the under. With the CLE bullpen, I'm going to put 1 unit on the 5 inning under as I expect Meche to dominate through 5.
CIN ML --- Zambrano absolutley dominated the Reds last year with an ERA well under 2 in 30IP. Harang has a terrible career against the Cubs and at Wrigley. The Cubs are 4-1 off of a loss this year and 10-2 in Z's last 12 when he throws as a home favorite greater than -150. Harang has looked solid but was hit hard in his one road outing. The line looks good for the Reds but after looking at splits and trends, I don't see the value here.
MIL ML --- Dave Bush was a ton better at home than on the road but was hit well by Philly in 2008. Hamels has obviously struggled in the start of the season and has seen a decrease in his velocity. I don't necessarily like Hamels to put it together today and dominate like he did yesterday. If he does, the Brewers won't fair well, if he doesn't, they should win by 2 or more....so I will be taking the reverse runline.
NYM ML --- Hernandez is not what I consider a top starter but he's done fairly well against the Cardinals in the past, and hasn't been dominated by Pujols. Lohse was crushed by the Mets last year which gives some hope here. The Mets are struggling with the bats but I expect them to turn it around today against a starter that I think the public is over-rating currently.
