Anybody got an expert method for picking baseball?

[tbill11]

Hey guys, I'm pretty new here. Just got into gaming a few months ago and have been playing very low stakes (deposited 25 dollars into Bookmaker and have just been dealing with that).


In any case, I'm a huge baseball fan, but have had some trouble with my picks recently. Had a bit of a cold streak this week and want to get out of my funk. What do you cappers out there take into account when picking your games? Do you look more at line movement, pitching matchups, etc? And where do you get this information?

Any help would be much appreciated. Thanks!

[Foghorn]

I would suggest you go to some of the earlier threads a few weeks prior to the start of the season. There was a lot going on with people offering their "system". Good Luck

[The General]

1.) Stay away from big favs like minus $130 or more. Just my opinion. The juice/vig can get you quickly and make a lot of gamblers start thinking about chasing losses with bigger betting amounts.

[Iwinyourmoney]

Underdog system

[UntilTheNDofTimE]

I only bet on pitchers that are above average simply because 7 times out of 10 there not going to get rocked, as stated above avoid high juice, look into batting average a opposing team has against your pitcher and **** versa, tendencies and current ebb n flow of a team can be used

[losturmarbles]

dont reup at bookmaker,

go to 5dimes or matchbook

[Mr KLC]

Wait until June when some trends have had a chance to develop.

[losturmarbles]

http://www.sbrodds.com/#/odds/baseball/game/money-line.html

[Chi_archie]

Bullpens are often more important then starters if you aren't betting first five.

I track pitchers' pitch counts for high one game totals and high three game totals, and use if they have a poor track record coming off high pitch counts.

find selective home dogs

check each starter's history against the lineup as well as the available bullpen...if a particular hitter or 2 just flat out rake against your staff...don't play that play.

check the splits of the starter to see how he performs on the road/home day/night in that month historically against that team, and in that ballpark also vs lefties/righties.

be aware of the streaks

watch the line movements and RLM

be aware of the weather and how the dimensions of the stadium at the affects each team's lineups, ex: righty power hitters get killed at pnc.

sabermetrics in small quantities can be your friend....

go with your instinct

read the hometown newspapers of the division/teams you cap the most... for me the central in the AL and NL
cubs, pirates, sox are my speciality

once again, home dogs in favorable spots.... stay away from high juice favs... but any game with value is value and that's what it comes down to.... you are looking for games with value.... so you have to understand public perception and the market fluctuations for pitchers is usually a few games behind.... so you can find value in fading an "ace" that has obviously fuked up his arm slot and is struggling... and you can find little known pitchers that no one else really has heard of... recently for instance..danks and maholm

[pavyracer]

I bet home dogs and road favs all the time. You got to pick your spots. I usually like betting on LH pitchers on day games and RH pitchers on night games.

[Vince Carter]

it's $25 what's the point seriously

[tbill11]

it's $25 what's the point seriously

Well if I had to guess, paying for the next three years of college probably.

As for stats, where is the best place to get these archived stats on how pitchers have fared against opponents, performance in day vs. night, etc. I mean I'm sure I could get it all at MLB.com but that's kind of a pain, is there a more bettor friendly site?

[Fischnasty]

Message a guy named DacBietViet and ask to be put on the mailing list. THe guy is lights out. He doesnt respond to personl messages a lotthough, so you might have to ask him a few times...

[pavyracer]

Well if I had to guess, paying for the next three years of college probably.

As for stats, where is the best place to get these archived stats on how pitchers have fared against opponents, performance in day vs. night, etc. I mean I'm sure I could get it all at MLB.com but that's kind of a pain, is there a more bettor friendly site?

Just fade jjgold's spreadsheet. He is hitting 40% for the last 6 months and counting.

[smitch124]

When I flip a coin to decide what side to bet on I always use a quarter from Massachusetts

[suicidekings]

Hey tbill11. Welcome to SBR.

I would say you should keep the following things in mind:

1) There's 162 games a season times 30 teams = 2430 games a year. That means lots of opportunities to pick the matchups that you really like.

2) Get to know the makeup of all teams to a certain extent, and be familiar with as many starting pitchers as possible, and which bullpens can be relied upon. There are very few starters that really deserve a line steeper than -150. Conversely, some solid pitchers will get tagged with huge +money lines from time to time that you can take advantage of. And regardless of the starter, the bullpen can make or break you just like that...

3) Even a top tier team in baseball still only wins around 60% of their games, and will lose a LOT of games in a season that seem like sure things. Any team can win on any night, unlike in some other sports.

4) Become familiar with Pythagorean Expectation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation. It's extremely useful.

Beyond that, if you're interested in stats, go to retrosheet.org for complete season data from the last several seasons. It's a great resource. Good Luck.

[tbill11]

Is there anywhere on Retrosheet to see how a pitcher has fared against another club? Seem to be able to get a lot of information but having trouble finding that. I also see a lot of posters bring out stats like "Oh so and sos 8-1 when favored" or things like that...know of anyplace to see past lines to go with these stats?

[laxdjock]

I bet probably 2/3 dogs to get on the + side, and I shoot for .500. I try and stick to 3-5 games a day that I feel good about, and I place a max bet of 2 units per play. For early in the season people are still feeling out teams, so it is more of a grinder's mentality, though some just cherry pick a line here or there. While you have a low $ amount, it mostly comes down to money management and consistent unit betting. Big swings happen, but most of those people go bust because they end up risking far too much of their bankroll (%-wise).

Don't trust any "system", though some people follow trends. I prefer learning a few teams inside and out, and then cherry picking weak matchups (which is what I do on CFB), though some people prefer a more general approach and focus on funny lines. MLB is not my area, so I only place small bets as I figure it out. I'd suggest placing a few bets that you feel good about, and tracking the rest...if you consistantly end up in the black, you can edge up your bets.

[suicidekings]

The data is in there. You just need to work out a way to sort it using excel or similar software. If you insert a season into excel starting at A1, the starting/winning pitcher info is in columns CP-DA. Learn how to use SUMIFS & COUNTIFS (among others) functions and you can have these records available for all pitchers over the last several seasons.

[Chi_archie]

fade vegas dave?

[jjgold]

1. Don't Bet
2. Bet With The Streak
3. Bet a good team coming off a few loses in a row

[TodaysAction]

This works great:
1) Checkerboard your yard with the teams colors.
2) Let your dog out (keep him in overnight).
3) Whatever square he does his business in, is the team to wager AGAINST.
4) Make a 10% donation from your winnings to your local food bank.

[Vonnegut]

http://www.pregame.com/EN/main/sports-handicapping-matchups/game-matchups/statfeed.php?page=mlb/daily

And trust your gut sometimes. Never bet a road fave over -140. Try to find pitching matchups where one pitcher is overvalued against another solid pitcher (good example today would be Zambrano vs Harang).
Listen to guys like cocknocker, machinechoice, Todays Action, heck off the top of my head I am sure I a missing a few solid cappers.

[20Four7]

Home dogs dude, home dogs..... and look for streaks. don't bet against them (even if I do).