STLou -450 for WS but is a Dog next 3 games

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  • Sam Odom
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-30-05
    • 58063

    #1
    STLou -450 for WS but is a Dog next 3 games
    Assuming of course there will be 3 more games.

    Riding StLou seems good.
    Last edited by Sam Odom; 10-27-06, 04:22 PM.
  • SBR_John
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-12-05
    • 16471

    #2
    Maybe one of the guru's can break down the math but if I were a bridge jumper I might give that -450 a look. They have their entire pitching staff in perfect shape and they have proved they can hit Detroits best starters except for Rodgers.
    Comment
    • Sam Odom
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-30-05
      • 58063

      #3
      John I edited my post. I really dont want anyone following the "Logic" I posted. If I do it and lose than it's ok... LOL
      Comment
      • isetcap
        SBR MVP
        • 12-16-05
        • 4006

        #4
        Originally posted by SBR_John
        Maybe one of the guru's can break down the math but if I were a bridge jumper I might give that -450 a look. They have their entire pitching staff in perfect shape and they have proved they can hit Detroits best starters except for Rodgers.
        They should just start Rogers for the next 3. No way his arm gets tired serving up that junk. I'll go way out on a limb here and say that if the Cardinals don't win tonight, they won't win the Series.
        Comment
        • isetcap
          SBR MVP
          • 12-16-05
          • 4006

          #5
          Sam the Editor. I saw your little formula.
          Comment
          • Sam Odom
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-30-05
            • 58063

            #6
            Originally posted by isetcap

            I'll go way out on a limb here and say that if the Cardinals don't win tonight, they won't win the Series.
            Then you have a nice betting set-up with Cards a dog tonight and Tigers a dog for Series.
            Comment
            • Sam Odom
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-30-05
              • 58063

              #7
              Originally posted by isetcap

              Sam the Editor. I saw your little formula.
              Yeah, I'm not ashame of it but is a bit risky. Dont want someone else (newbie) to do it tho
              Comment
              • isetcap
                SBR MVP
                • 12-16-05
                • 4006

                #8
                Originally posted by Sam Odom
                Then you have a nice betting set-up with Cards a dog tonight and Tigers a dog for Series.
                That's right. Tonight's the night I retire from this grind.
                Comment
                • DrSlamm
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 11-10-05
                  • 577

                  #9
                  if you want to assume that the tigers are -120 all 3 games (that is about what they are tonight) then the odds of them winning all 3 games is (6/11)^3 = .16228 which then = somewhere in the neighborhood of +425

                  If the tigers are actually MORE favored in the next 2 games (which seems likely) that + # is in reality even smaller
                  Last edited by DrSlamm; 10-27-06, 04:41 PM.
                  Comment
                  • RickySteve
                    Restricted User
                    • 01-31-06
                    • 3415

                    #10
                    Carpenter and Suppan on the road on short rest. Cards' better pray Weaver's deal with the devil hasn't expired by tonight.
                    Comment
                    • Sam Odom
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 10-30-05
                      • 58063

                      #11
                      DrSlamm, if Det wins tonite Kenny Rogers will be around -180 at home
                      Comment
                      • isetcap
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-16-05
                        • 4006

                        #12
                        Originally posted by RickySteve
                        Carpenter and Suppan on the road on short rest. Cards' better pray Weaver's deal with the devil hasn't expired by tonight.
                        I couldn't have said it better. I'm not sure any team has ever felt better about being in a 3-1 hole than Detroit in this series.
                        Comment
                        • rm18
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 09-20-05
                          • 22291

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Sam Odom
                          DrSlamm, if Det wins tonite Kenny Rogers will be around -180 at home
                          , and the total will be O/U 3.5 then I guess also
                          Comment
                          • Sam Odom
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-30-05
                            • 58063

                            #14
                            Ov 7.5 -105
                            Un 7.5 -115
                            Comment
                            • rm18
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 09-20-05
                              • 22291

                              #15
                              sorry didn't realize they moved carpenter back, probably a good move by them though
                              Comment
                              • pags11
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-18-05
                                • 12264

                                #16
                                St. Louis looks pretty good right now...
                                Comment
                                • Sam Odom
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 10-30-05
                                  • 58063

                                  #17
                                  after the fact i guess it doesnt matter if you bet 95 to win 100 or 450 to win the same 100
                                  Comment
                                  • slacker00
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 10-06-05
                                    • 12262

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Sam Odom
                                    after the fact i guess it doesnt matter if you bet 95 to win 100 or 450 to win the same 100
                                    If you bet 450, you could've won 500.
                                    Comment
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