MLB - Tuesday, 9/29/15

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Tuesday, 9/29/15
    1 MLB Play Tuesday

    Cubs / Reds UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)


    YTD: 514-481-26, +80.31
  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #2
    60%ers:

    Yankees 60% (-150)
    Texas 63% (-170)
    Comment
    • smitch124
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 05-19-08
      • 12566

      #3
      What number do you have for Giants/Dodgers?
      Comment
      • PorkChop
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-18-08
        • 8193

        #4
        Cubbies/Reds being bought up to 9-115 now
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          Originally posted by smitch124
          What number do you have for Giants/Dodgers?
          Dodgers 55% (-122)
          Comment
          • PorkChop
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 09-18-08
            • 8193

            #6
            Interesting, last 10 games Josh Smith has pitched in has gone over:

            09/24 vs NYM L 4-6 5.0 7 3 3 0 1 5 8 9 23 94 -- -- 7.23
            09/19 @ MIL W 9-7 4.0 6 4 4 1 2 3 7 7 19 73 -- -- 7.71
            09/13 vs STL L 2-9 0.1 3 2 2 1 0 1 0 3 4 16 -- -- 7.36
            09/08 vs PIT L 3-7 2.0 1 0 0 0 0 2 1 4 7 26 -- -- 6.28
            07/04 vs MIL L 3-7 4.1 5 5 5 1 3 2 6 8 23 80 L(0-2) -- 7.30
            06/28 @ NYM L 2-7 5.0 4 3 1 0 4 3 4 12 23 109 L(0-1) -- 5.63
            06/23 @ PIT L 6-7 3.0 3 4 4 1 6 3 4 3 16 79 -- -- 12.00
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by PorkChop
              Cubbies/Reds being bought up to 9-115 now
              That is borderline, virtually identical to 8.5 +105. When there is a "tie" in EV, I personally always take the better odds. Others go the "safer" route and take the better spread/total paying the premium. Up to you.
              Comment
              • PorkChop
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-18-08
                • 8193

                #8
                And Dan Haren last 7 starts have gone over the total as well:
                09/18 vs STL W 8-3 4.1 3 3 1 0 0 2 4 11 18 51 -- -- 3.83
                09/13 @ PHI L 4-7 3.0 7 4 4 1 3 4 2 9 18 74 -- -- 3.87
                09/07 @ STL W 9-0 7.0 7 0 0 0 2 5 6 14 27 103 W(9-9) -- 3.73
                09/01 vs CIN W 5-4 5.0 4 2 2 1 1 4 3 11 19 73 -- -- 3.89
                08/27 @ SF L 1-9 6.1 6 5 5 1 3 4 5 15 27 105 L(8-9) -- 3.90
                08/22 vs ATL W 9-7 4.1 6 4 4 1 0 3 6 11 20 64 -- -- 3.76
                Comment
                • PorkChop
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 09-18-08
                  • 8193

                  #9
                  Not playing it LT. Just interesting numbers. Cubbies/Reds is screaming due for an Under.
                  Comment
                  • LT Profits
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 10-27-06
                    • 90963

                    #10
                    Originally posted by PorkChop
                    Not playing it LT. Just interesting numbers. Cubbies/Reds is screaming due for an Under.
                    I don't do the "due".

                    I played the Under because model has 7.4 in a meaningless game.
                    Comment
                    • Mr KLC
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-19-07
                      • 31097

                      #11
                      How do you see Miami? Conley looks like he has come into his own recently. Is +127 worth pursuing?
                      Comment
                      • Rich Boy
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 02-01-09
                        • 9714

                        #12
                        Hey LT what is your projected total for Det/Tex game?
                        Comment
                        • LT Profits
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 10-27-06
                          • 90963

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Mr KLC
                          How do you see Miami? Conley looks like he has come into his own recently. Is +127 worth pursuing?
                          Model actually has Tampa Bay 61%, I didn't include them in the 60%ers because I stopped listing meaningless games there.
                          Comment
                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Rich Boy
                            Hey LT what is your projected total for Det/Tex game?
                            Nothing to see there, 8.6.
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              1 MLB Addition

                              2 MLB Plays Tuesday

                              Cubs / Reds UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
                              Tigers +185 (Heritage)


                              YTD: 514-481-26, +80.31
                              Comment
                              • Rich Boy
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-01-09
                                • 9714

                                #16
                                Hope that tigers game goes over for my own sanity
                                Comment
                                • 44 Mag
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 10-14-13
                                  • 34490

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                  2 MLB Plays Tuesday

                                  Cubs / Reds UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
                                  Tigers +185 (Heritage)


                                  YTD: 514-481-26, +80.31
                                  Darn it, I took Texas. Didn't see this earlier, hate going against you.
                                  Comment
                                  • PorkChop
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 09-18-08
                                    • 8193

                                    #18
                                    LT - Your number on Twins ML?
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by PorkChop
                                      LT - Your number on Twins ML?
                                      Cleveland 52% (-108)
                                      Comment
                                      • LT Profits
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-27-06
                                        • 90963

                                        #20
                                        Another MLB Addition

                                        3 MLB Plays Tuesday

                                        Cubs / Reds UNDER 8.5 +105 (Heritage)
                                        Tigers +185 (Heritage)
                                        Mariners +144 (5 Dimes)
                                        Comment
                                        • mikefan1034
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 08-29-12
                                          • 2448

                                          #21
                                          Fade that
                                          Comment
                                          • mth61
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 11-16-14
                                            • 611

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                            Fade that
                                            Special Mike is back...
                                            Comment
                                            • Conqueror
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 12-08-13
                                              • 16778

                                              #23
                                              Tailing you on the Tigers. It's already down to +163 at Heritage.
                                              Comment
                                              • dect6.0
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 12-23-14
                                                • 258

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                                Fade that
                                                nice posting

                                                whose ghost are you?
                                                Comment
                                                • RollinDo
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 09-04-13
                                                  • 13322

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                                  Darn it, I took Texas. Didn't see this earlier, hate going against you.
                                                  Don't worry Mag - this is just a value play by LT. If we lose this one, I will buy you a beer at Wrigley Field when we meet up for a ballgame in Chitown.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • TheSchafe
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-29-09
                                                    • 2143

                                                    #26
                                                    Man, I hate the freaking Astros. Don't win when I bet them, don't lose when I fade them. Unreal.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • funnyb25
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 07-09-09
                                                      • 39663

                                                      #27
                                                      Tigers had 4 errors that cost them that one...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • TheSchafe
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-29-09
                                                        • 2143

                                                        #28
                                                        Jinx post works again. Glad I doubled down on the M's after yesterday.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mth61
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-16-14
                                                          • 611

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by mikefan1034
                                                          Fade that

                                                          i really hope you did lmao....Despite your best efforts LT goes 2-1 +1.46u
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by mth61
                                                            i really hope you did lmao....Despite your best efforts LT goes 2-1 +1.46u
                                                            +1.49u
                                                            Comment
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