MLB - Monday, 9/28/15

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Plays Monday

Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Orioles +123 (5 Dimes)
Twins +153 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 512-480-26, +79.26

[LT Profits]

No 60%ers in meaningful games today.

[44 Mag]

No 60%ers in meaningful games today.

I am surprise TX didn't make the cut (60%). They still need to win to clinch??? And I know it is meaningless to Detroit.

[mth61]

I am surprise TX didn't make the cut (60%). They still need to win to clinch??? And I know it is meaningless to Detroit.

Justin Verlander might not think its meaningless

[44 Mag]

Justin Verlander might not think its meaningless

The rest of that pathetic team does. LOL.

[RavensFan2k3]

No 60%ers in meaningful games today.

That's what you said about the Cubs/Pitt game and Cubs won

[Nitronett]

I don't see how TOR at -123 isn't a gift in a meaningful gm to them...w Tillman huge struggles and splits vs TOR..that's some good odds on a hot team

[hsvankie]

What do you think about Giants and Yankees?

[LT Profits]

I am surprise TX didn't make the cut (60%). They still need to win to clinch??? And I know it is meaningless to Detroit.

I am considering TIGERS actually, only have Texas 51% (-104) vs. Verlander. Resisting as of now though, but subject to change.

[44 Mag]

I don't see how TOR at -123 isn't a gift in a meaningful gm to them...w Tillman huge struggles and splits vs TOR..that's some good odds on a hot team

In my opinion (insert laughter) Toronto is much better at home, and doubt they can be caught by the NYY.

[44 Mag]

I am considering TIGERS actually, only have Texas 51% (-104) vs. Verlander. Resisting as of now though, but subject to change.

Roger, thanks.

[LT Profits]

That's what you said about the Cubs/Pitt game and Cubs won :banghead;

But you would have lost a shitload on Washington this past week.

[LT Profits]

I don't see how TOR at -123 isn't a gift in a meaningful gm to them...w Tillman huge struggles and splits vs TOR..that's some good odds on a hot team

Note the odds that I got (+123). Game is now scalpable with Toronto -122 at a few places including 5 Dimes.

That aside though, sometimes lines are overly skewed this time of year with teams that need to win vs. also-rans, such as Milwaukee the last two days. Remember that my model doesn't care about "needing to win" and it has Toronto only 52% (-108) on the road. I tend to ignore the model when it points to favorites that are either eliminated or have clinched this time of the season, but I always pay attention to live underdogs any time of the year.

[RavensFan2k3]

But you would have lost a shitload on Washington this past week.

Yes but I lost a shitload on Pitt last night!

[44 Mag]

Yes but I lost a shitload on Pitt last night!

Brother, you took Pitt on the road against probably the best pitcher in baseball, well, at least the hottest ??? Yikes.

[LT Profits]

What do you think about Giants and Yankees?

There is no line right now on either game at my books, but for the record, model has Yankees 58% (-138) and Dodgers 57% (-133). We will take it from there one lines come out.

[RavensFan2k3]

Brother, you took Pitt on the road against probably the best pitcher in baseball, well, at least the hottest ??? Yikes.

I trusted in LT...gave up all my Rockies winnings

[LT Profits]

Brother, you took Pitt on the road against probably the best pitcher in baseball, well, at least the hottest ??? Yikes.

As did I. I will gladly take +182 on the hottest team in baseball still trying to win a division vs. a team locked into its playoff spot. And I didn't quite expect Arrieta to go seven innings either. No biggie.

[LT Profits]

Yes but I lost a shitload on Pitt last night!

No need to lose that much on a +182 underdog.

[LT Profits]

No need to lose that much on a +182 underdog.

And Washington has still been in the -200s the last week.

[MoeSedway]

I trusted in LT...gave up all my Rockies winnings

People who makes posts like this should be banned.

[RavensFan2k3]

People who makes posts like this should be banned.

I know right!

[Nitronett]

I hear you LT but outside the model Toronto still wants the best AL record so when you add on
Better team
Something to play for vs elim team
Better pitcher

I'm not sure being in another offensive stadium is gon effect a hot team . I just think at -123 when it opened that's great odds, I'll ario backing them cus it's a set up for a loss but I'm not seeing value in a flat orioles team and TILLMAN....

[eddycash]

Rats under 7 +105?

[LT Profits]

Rats under 7 +105?

OK but no lower than +105

[LT Profits]

I hear you LT but outside the model Toronto still wants the best AL record so when you add on
Better team
Something to play for vs elim team
Better pitcher

I'm not sure being in another offensive stadium is gon effect a hot team . I just think at -123 when it opened that's great odds, I'll ario backing them cus it's a set up for a loss but I'm not seeing value in a flat orioles team and TILLMAN....

There are other factors too, especially Estrada not being as good as his record and mainstream stats. You say "better pitcher" with confidence, but Estrada has an ugly 5.00 xFIP vs. a 4.58 xFIP for Tillman.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

4 MLB Plays Monday

Reds / Nationals UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Orioles +123 (5 Dimes)
Twins +153 (5 Dimes)

[Wrecked]

4 MLB Plays Monday

Reds / Nationals UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Orioles +123 (5 Dimes)
Twins +153 (5 Dimes)

Following via parlay
yolo

[LT Profits]

Following via parlay
yolo

I would never recommend that, just like I would never recommend overplaying any one of my plays individually.

[brett1508]

"Yolo" haha BOL wrecked

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Monday

Reds / Nationals UNDER 7 +105 (Heritage)
Cardinals / Pirates UNDER 7.5 -115 (Heritage)
Orioles +123 (5 Dimes)
Twins +153 (5 Dimes)
Twins / Indians UNDER 7.5 +102 (5 Dimes)

[LT Profits]

No Action on Twins and Twins Under due to pitching chance by Minnesota to Milone, now down to 3 plays.

[Wrecked]

I would never recommend that, just like I would never recommend overplaying any one of my plays individually.

No worries, I'm not going to cry like RavensFan2k3 LOLOLOL

LETS BANG ONE OUT BABY AYYYYYYY

[TheSchafe]

How do the Mariners look to you tonight LT?

[LT Profits]

How do the Mariners look to you tonight LT?

Too close to number, I get Houston 57% (-133)