MLB - Friday, 8/14/15

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Friday, 8/14/15
    4 MLB Plays Friday

    Yankees / Blue Jays UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
    Mariners / Red Sox OVER 9.5 +100 (Bookmaker)
    Twins +130 (Heritage)
    Tigers +205 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 418-377-21, +78.22
  • Brooklyn Dick
    SBR MVP
    • 09-12-08
    • 1068

    #2
    Any 60% teams today LT? And by the way thanks for this, very useful for me.
    Comment
    • mth61
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 11-16-14
      • 611

      #3
      TGIF LT! Thanks as always and let's cash today!
      Comment
      • jjgold
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 07-20-05
        • 388179

        #4
        Mariners / Red Sox OVER 9.5 +100

        That's a lot of runs

        Tigers not bad shot
        Comment
        • Big Bear
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 11-01-11
          • 43253

          #5
          Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick
          Any 60% teams today LT? And by the way thanks for this, very useful for me.
          agreed. This has made me a lot of money lately too.

          Your system must pump out 70% winners on the ones that say they have a 60% chance of winning or more.

          works good for me since i only play parlays usually and i dont care what price i get as long as it wins.
          Comment
          • bet-clever
            SBR High Roller
            • 08-02-15
            • 113

            #6
            @LT,

            Well done for the Reds Yesterday but today, I do not understand why you pick Tigers and Twins.
            Simon and Santana are both struggling and Santana has an ERA of 11 @home and Simon gives 4 or more run per game...
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #7
              Originally posted by Brooklyn Dick
              Any 60% teams today LT? And by the way thanks for this, very useful for me.
              Blue Jays 69% (-223)
              Astros 64% (-178) (after putting Miggy in for Detroit)
              Cardinals 68% (-213)
              Dodgers 69% (-223)

              Already went against Astros at +205
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Originally posted by bet-clever
                @LT,

                Well done for the Reds Yesterday but today, I do not understand why you pick Tigers and Twins.
                Simon and Santana are both struggling and Santana has an ERA of 11 @home and Simon gives 4 or more run per game...
                Cabrera back for Detroit and he comes back vs. southpaw (granted a very good one, but still). Santana is not pitching, it is Trevor May.
                Comment
                • Terps1993
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-28-14
                  • 168

                  #9
                  Any thoughts on Pirates/Mets Over 8? Colon and Happ very hittable and both teams bats are pretty hot right now.
                  Comment
                  • 2buckluck
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 04-10-15
                    • 608

                    #10
                    Hey LT Great work, thanks for the picks keep it up!

                    I remember about a month back you posted your splits (win/loss) on Totals and Sides as part or your tracking, if you get a chance (today or whenever) can you provide that again? I remember they were pretty close at the time, just wondering if one is out-performing the other now...
                    Comment
                    • eddycash
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-06-13
                      • 4527

                      #11
                      Twins+1 or tigers +1.5 for my streak play?
                      Comment
                      • LT Profits
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-27-06
                        • 90963

                        #12
                        Originally posted by eddycash
                        Twins+1 or tigers +1.5 for my streak play?
                        I almost never take runs, loses too much value vs. ML.
                        Comment
                        • eddycash
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-06-13
                          • 4527

                          #13
                          5Dimes betting contest doesn't offer ml
                          Comment
                          • eddycash
                            SBR MVP
                            • 11-06-13
                            • 4527

                            #14
                            Do u like either total you played better than the other?
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by eddycash
                              5Dimes betting contest doesn't offer ml
                              Then if one is +1.5 and one is +1 and the juice does not matter, take the +1.5.
                              Comment
                              • LT Profits
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 10-27-06
                                • 90963

                                #16
                                Originally posted by eddycash
                                Do u like either total you played better than the other?
                                No, I rarely do.
                                Comment
                                • eddycash
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 11-06-13
                                  • 4527

                                  #17
                                  Thanks LT Bol
                                  Comment
                                  • BlueJaysNation
                                    SBR Rookie
                                    • 07-06-15
                                    • 42

                                    #18
                                    Hey LT! What % do you get on CHC vs CWS if you dont mind me asking?

                                    Do you see value on Cubs ml?
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by BlueJaysNation
                                      Hey LT! What % do you get on CHC vs CWS if you dont mind me asking?

                                      Do you see value on Cubs ml?
                                      My model likes the Cubs a lot. Cubs 55% (-122)

                                      I have not pulled the trigger though.
                                      Comment
                                      • bet-clever
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 08-02-15
                                        • 113

                                        #20
                                        @LT,

                                        Thanks for the return.
                                        However, do you play before knowing the line-up? I know you use a system but it still dangerous according to me of course.
                                        I do not trust Simon but the value is on Tigers.
                                        You don't like the Nats cause Pagan and Aoki are both injured?
                                        Comment
                                        • Jayvegas420
                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                          • 03-09-11
                                          • 28213

                                          #21
                                          Cubs/Sox total just went from 8 to 9.
                                          Anyone know why?
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by bet-clever
                                            @LT,

                                            Thanks for the return.
                                            However, do you play before knowing the line-up? I know you use a system but it still dangerous according to me of course.
                                            I do not trust Simon but the value is on Tigers.
                                            You don't like the Nats cause Pagan and Aoki are both injured?
                                            I have default lineups for every team. They are available at http://www.rosterresource.com/

                                            And I don't like Nats because model has value on Giants side with Washington only 55% (-122).
                                            Comment
                                            • bet-clever
                                              SBR High Roller
                                              • 08-02-15
                                              • 113

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by LT Profits
                                              And I don't like Nats because model has value on Giants side with Washington only 55% (-122).
                                              Even without Aoki and Pagan? Don't forget Panik who still on the DL.
                                              Cain returns from a long injury. It is a public bet I know but Giants do not score runs atm...
                                              Comment
                                              • LT Profits
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 10-27-06
                                                • 90963

                                                #24
                                                3 MLB Additions

                                                7 MLB Plays Friday

                                                Yankees / Blue Jays UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
                                                Mariners / Red Sox OVER 9.5 +100 (Bookmaker)
                                                Diamondbacks / Braves UNDER 7 +100 (Heritage)
                                                Diamondbacks UNDER 3.5 +105 (Team Total) (5 Dimes)
                                                Phillies / Brewers UNDER 8.5 -115 (5 Dimes)

                                                Twins +130 (Heritage)
                                                Tigers +205 (5 Dimes)
                                                Comment
                                                • Ralphie1412
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-29-08
                                                  • 13963

                                                  #25
                                                  Alfredo is trash LT
                                                  "This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
                                                  Goat Milk
                                                  Comment
                                                  • crackerjack
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 08-01-06
                                                    • 3366

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Jayvegas420
                                                    Cubs/Sox total just went from 8 to 9.
                                                    Anyone know why?
                                                    Two sucky pitchers
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Slanina
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-21-09
                                                      • 3827

                                                      #27
                                                      So this is a system? If so, is there a link explaining it somewhere?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JJJ
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 05-03-11
                                                        • 2610

                                                        #28
                                                        yes bet what LT posts and don't ask any questions
                                                        Originally posted by Slanina
                                                        So this is a system? If so, is there a link explaining it somewhere?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • mth61
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 11-16-14
                                                          • 611

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by JJJ
                                                          yes bet what LT posts and don't ask any questions
                                                          hahahaha its a proven track record and if you've been tailing, you have turned $500 ($25 unit) into $2500... thats the explanation.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • mth61
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 11-16-14
                                                            • 611

                                                            #30
                                                            That being said from my understanding LT uses a model based on analytics and lineups that spits out totals and winning %'s and handicaps them from those numbers.

                                                            For example on a side. Take the Tigers. His model gave them a 36% chance of winning while oddsmakers had them at 32.75% of winning at that time. That 3.5% is the edge and if betting that 100 times you win. I think thats an okay explanation.

                                                            LT please feel free to correct me if I am way off lol
                                                            Comment
                                                            • LT Profits
                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                              • 10-27-06
                                                              • 90963

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by mth61
                                                              That being said from my understanding LT uses a model based on analytics and lineups that spits out totals and winning %'s and handicaps them from those numbers.

                                                              For example on a side. Take the Tigers. His model gave them a 36% chance of winning while oddsmakers had them at 32.75% of winning at that time. That 3.5% is the edge and if betting that 100 times you win. I think thats an okay explanation.

                                                              LT please feel free to correct me if I am way off lol
                                                              Good general explanation.

                                                              Now don't expect an exact detailed explanation of what the model involves.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Big Bear
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 11-01-11
                                                                • 43253

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                Blue Jays 69% (-223)
                                                                Astros 64% (-178) (after putting Miggy in for Detroit)
                                                                Cardinals 68% (-213)
                                                                Dodgers 69% (-223)

                                                                Already went against Astros at +205
                                                                all those look good.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Big Bear
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 11-01-11
                                                                  • 43253

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by Slanina
                                                                  So this is a system? If so, is there a link explaining it somewhere?
                                                                  LT has a "model" he is a fukkin genius. This model is worth millions.

                                                                  I am considering going back to school just so i can learn how to make my own model.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mth61
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-16-14
                                                                    • 611

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                    Good general explanation.

                                                                    Now don't expect an exact detailed explanation of what the model involves.
                                                                    Thats why I say analytics..
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • mth61
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 11-16-14
                                                                      • 611

                                                                      #35
                                                                      phils moved to 8 on 5d. Wiser to play 8.5 at -123, or 8 at +101 or no value?
                                                                      Comment
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