MLB - Thursday, 8/13/15

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Plays Thursday

Rockies / Mets OVER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Pirates / Cardinals OVER 6.5 -115 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 415-375-21, +76.85

[Brooklyn Dick]

Any 60% teams today LT?

[pacman63]

LT. You can tell me something about CRAY from Milwaukee pitching today. Thank you very much

[LT Profits]

Any 60% teams today LT?

Mets 70% (-233)
Cubs 65% (-186)
Dodgers 62% (-163)

Cubs and Dodgers look like potential fades, but opponents' starters have limited samples so % are more ZiPS based than actual based.

[LT Profits]

LT. You can tell me something about CRAY from Milwaukee pitching today. Thank you very much

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/2/7482797/milwaukee-brewers-top-20-prospects-for-2015

Grade C prospects are the most common type. These are guys who have something positive going for them, but who may have a question mark or three, or who are just too far away from the majors to get an accurate feel for. A few Grade C guys, especially at the lower levels, do develop into stars. Many end up as role players or bench guys. Some don’t make it at all.

Finally, keep in mind that all grades are shorthand. You have to read the full comment in the book for the full analysis about a player, the letter grade only tells you so much. A Grade C prospect in rookie ball could end up being very impressive, while a Grade C prospect in Triple-A is likely just a future role player.


Tyler Cravy, RHP, Grade C/Borderline C+: Age 25, posted 1.63 ERA with 76/20 K/BB in 83 innings at three levels, 52 hits allowed. A Mike Fiers-type, nothing special with velocity but mixes in some good breaking pitches and pace-changers, throws strikes and can out-pitch many arms with better pedigrees.

[Brooklyn Dick]

Mets 70% (-233) Cubs 65% (-186) Dodgers 62% (-163) Cubs and Dodgers look like potential fades, but opponents' starters have limited samples so % are more ZiPS based than actual based.

Giving up on Colorado I see. LOL

[LT Profits]

Giving up on Colorado I see. LOL

First time all series model has Colorado closer to the real line. I did pass on Rockies last night thankfully, so they only got me twice.

[44 Mag]

2 MLB Plays Thursday

Rockies / Mets OVER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Pirates / Cardinals OVER 6.5 -115 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 415-375-21, +76.85

Ok yesterday you said Mets problem is their offense, and I said Colorado's problem is their offense on the road, so why the over here??? If you don't mind. THX.

[pacman63]

LT. Your so awesome. Thank you so much for your time and write up

[LT Profits]

Ok yesterday you said Mets problem is their offense, and I said Colorado's problem is their offense on the road, so why the over here??? If you don't mind. THX.

Butler is a stiff, model has 8.1. Even Syndergaard got roughed up last time, he may not need to allow much for the Over 7 as long as Butler holds his form (or lack of).

[RavensFan2k3]

Butler is a stiff, model has 8.1. Even Syndergaard got roughed up last time, he may not need to allow much for the Over 7 as long as Butler holds his form (or lack of).

So you don't think Colorado has a shot at winning?

[44 Mag]

Butler is a stiff, model has 8.1. Even Syndergaard got roughed up last time, he may not need to allow much for the Over 7 as long as Butler holds his form (or lack of).

Thanks.

[LT Profits]

So you don't think Colorado has a shot at winning?

Well a 30% chance as posted above.

[eddycash]

Why the over in St Louis? Seems heavy money is on the over.

[wfoster2]

Thoughts on Reds and Dodgers over 7?

[LT Profits]

Why the over in St Louis? Seems heavy money is on the over.

Low posted total, model has 7.6. Teams scored 6 with better pitchers last night. Both starters have fairly high walk rates and both are outperforming their peripherals, especially Lynn.

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on Reds and Dodgers over 7?

Not a fan, model at 6.4. But again, keep in mind limited sampling for the immortal Keyvius Sampson.

[hugh_jorgan]

Butler is a stiff, model has 8.1. Even Syndergaard got roughed up last time, he may not need to allow much for the Over 7 as long as Butler holds his form (or lack of).

just as an FYI ... Syndergard got roughed up last outing, but that was on the road.
For whatever reason, the kid is untouchable at home. Would not be surprised to see the Rockies blanked for the 3rd straight game today.

GL on your plays.

[eddycash]

Thanks LT I do like how the price is moving up on the total

[Big Bear]

Giving up on Colorado I see. LOL

Colorado will win today.

Duda is out for the Mets.

The Rockies hit much better in day games. Citi Field can play like a pitchers park in night games.

Bats will wake up today. Butler is very capable if he throws strikes.

[No coincidences]

Low posted total, model has 7.6. Teams scored 6 with better pitchers last night. Both starters have fairly high walk rates and both are outperforming their peripherals, especially Lynn.

Lynn has been outperforming his peripherals his entire career. The guy's jersey should say "anomaly" on the back.

[bet-clever]

The odd for Mets is unplayble...
Duda out, GL to you for the over cause it is a solid player for them.

Of course, there is Cespedes, Uribe and some K players who are available and in the line-up but for the odd, I will pass this game.

[play4win]

Colorado will win today.

Duda is out for the Mets.

The Rockies hit much better in day games. Citi Field can play like a pitchers park in night games.

Bats will wake up today. Butler is very capable if he throws strikes.

colorado bullpen $uck$, they fackin up big leads.
how do you think they gonna win today?

[mth61]

Watch this Mets game go over in the 1st inning lol. Great call LT

[LT Profits]

Lynn has been outperforming his peripherals his entire career. The guy's jersey should say "anomaly" on the back.

Yeah, him and Chris Young both.

[LT Profits]

Mets 70% (-233)
Cubs 65% (-186)
Dodgers 62% (-163)

Cubs and Dodgers look like potential fades, but opponents' starters have limited samples so % are more ZiPS based than actual based.

I did add Reds.

[LT Profits]

3 MLB Additions

5 MLB Plays Thursday

Rockies / Mets OVER 7 +100 (Heritage)
Yankees / Indians UNDER 7.5 -110 (Heritage)
Yankees / Indians UNDER 4 -120 (5 innings) (Heritage)
Pirates / Cardinals OVER 6.5 -115 (5 Dimes)
Reds +167 (Heritage)

[oBaMa_MaNiA]

Hey LT. can you explain the crazy movement for the A's on the close? they finished at +140

[mth61]

Hey LT. can you explain the crazy movement for the A's on the close? they finished at +140

Tulo day off

[Big Bear]

Tulo day off

yep. Tulo makes a huge difference.

What's up with Encarnacion? did he get hurt or something? I haven't seen him in the line-up in a few days..?

[mth61]

yep. Tulo makes a huge difference.

What's up with Encarnacion? did he get hurt or something? I haven't seen him in the line-up in a few days..?

Strained middle finger in his left hand has been bothersome the last couple days. I think they said he could of gone today.

[wfoster2]

LT what total is it spitting out for the Yankees and Indians. I know the Yanks have been hitting bad the last few games but 7.5 seems a little low.

[eddycash]

Yankees under 7.5 -120 still good?

[LT Profits]

LT what total is it spitting out for the Yankees and Indians. I know the Yanks have been hitting bad the last few games but 7.5 seems a little low.

6.6. Both bullpens grade out well, that helps keep total down. Eovaldi has allowed 3 or less 9 straight starts and Bauer is a good strikeout guy.

[LT Profits]

Yankees under 7.5 -120 still good?

Yeah that would be my max juice here.