MLB - Tuesday, 7/28/15

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Play Tuesday

Phillies / Blue Jays UNDER 9 +110 (5 Dimes)
Padres +135 (Heritage)
Dodgers -121 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +153 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +147 (Heritage)


YTD: 361-327-19, +67.12

[RollinDo]

Brewers?
Why? Giants hot...Milky sour

[dfish]

Projection for Dubront ? Thanks & nice work .

[jjgold]

Dodgers due

[LT Profits]

Brewers?
Why? Giants hot...Milky sour

Model only Giants 56% (-127), Peralta grades out better than Cain if he is ready, and it seems like he is based on his three rehab starts (two runs allowed, 12 strikeouts in 11.1 innings).

And it isn't so much the Giants being "hot" as it is them playing five straight series vs. crappy teams.

[RollinDo]

Model only Giants 56% (-127)

And it isn't so much the Giants being "hot" as it is them playing five straight series vs. crappy teams.

True about the bad teams they have played, though Oakland sweep was a bit unexpected.
I think Cain will pitch well enough to get the W as long as Giants get 4 like they have gotten pretty consistently lately.

[LT Profits]

Projection for Dubront ? Thanks & nice work .

After plugging in Tulowitzki for Reyes, I get Jays 71% (-245), 8.0.

[k4ngur13]

good season for ya so far ... keep it up

[LT Profits]

2 MLB Additions

7 MLB Play Tuesday

Phillies / Blue Jays UNDER 9 +110 (5 Dimes)
Padres +135 (Heritage)
Tigers -120 (Heritage)
Yankees / Rangers UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Dodgers -121 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +153 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +147 (Heritage)

[wfoster2]

Thoughts on KC tonight at +118?

[LT Profits]

Thoughts on KC tonight at +118?

Indians or pass, this is another game where my model is TOO far off actual line. I actually have Cleveland 60% (-150). Not unusual though as model hates Chris Young.

[BlueJaysNation]

Hi LT, what about Braves at +170? How can Ubaldo be so favored after getting hammered in the last two starts? I know Teheran doesn't have great numbers, but I think it's worth the shot. Plus, some of Braves hitter have good numbers on Jimenez

[LT Profits]

Hi LT, what about Braves at +170? How can Ubaldo be so favored after getting hammered in the last two starts? I know Teheran doesn't have great numbers, but I think it's worth the shot. Plus, some of Braves hitter have good numbers on Jimenez

I have Balty 61% (-156) so a bit of value on Braves now, which was not the case earlier before line went up. Not sure if I am adding though.

[HurlSweatPants]

Now is a good time to get on the Philly TOR over, it's running +110 for 9.5 on 5 dimes. Thanks for your pics LT.

[LT Profits]

Now is a good time to get on the Philly TOR over, it's running +110 for 9.5 on 5 dimes. Thanks for your pics LT.

Except that I am on the Under.

I have no interest in the Polish middle at +110 each way

[Pick'nParlays]

Cain is no Heston

But he has put a good performance or two up lately

Like the crew more today than yesterday but still think SF wins. I feel like in baseball you are "hot" when you win 11/12. Good teams in baseball land .600

[HurlSweatPants]

Haha indeed I meant the under. Apologies. Not enough coffee this AM.

[LT Profits]

Another MLB Addition

8 MLB Play Tuesday

Phillies / Blue Jays UNDER 9 +110 (5 Dimes)
Padres +135 (Heritage)
Tigers -120 (Heritage)
Rockies +151 (5 Dimes)
Yankees / Rangers UNDER 9.5 -105 (Heritage)
Dodgers -121 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks +153 (5 Dimes)
Brewers +147 (Heritage)

[mngambler]

dang Tigers down to -113 and Royals up to +118 from +108 early this morning

[LT Profits]

dang Tigers down to -113 and Royals up to +118 from +108 early this morning

I don't have Royals so no effect

[LT Profits]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/fantasy-sports-betting-contests/3123549-no-tulowitzki-blue-jays-tuesday.html

[thebettingman15]

don't understand why everyone is backing LAD tonight when they are facing one of the best pitchers in the MLB and their hitting has been sub-par at best.

[mth61]

don't understand why everyone is backing LAD tonight when they are facing one of the best pitchers in the MLB and their hitting has been sub-par at best.

If you're speaking of recent performances... Since the AS break, Grays last 2 starts 0-1 with a 4.85 ERA

[mth61]

Also "everyone" with 51% of wagers placed on OAK and the line has moved 16 cents LAD -130 to -146.... Just saying

[Pick'nParlays]

-137 is what i see at 5Dimes

[mth61]

-137 is what i see at 5dimes

Figured I'd use a standard CRIS opening and current

[Pick'nParlays]

i wonder what LT's record is when taking ML favorites

He doesn't do it often...when he does I usually tail! Overs also

[Smoke]

Also "everyone" with 51% of wagers placed on OAK and the line has moved 16 cents LAD -130 to -146.... Just saying

Means nothing.

[tony_come]

Smokiest welcome back

[mth61]

Means nothing.

No shit just the whole "everyone" line and I need quick concrete evidence. Now if everyone is the shawps on this board than...

[Ghenghis Kahn]

lt do you consider pitcher vs batter in your model? if so, how much?

[LT Profits]

lt do you consider pitcher vs batter in your model? if so, how much?

Well, not specific histories of specific pitchers vs. specific hitters. But it does have default lineups.

[BlueJaysNation]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...s-tuesday.html

so are Phillies at +248 worth the shot? I mean, I still don't get why Doubront is so favored. I know blue jays hit pretty good vs lefties, but Phillies are on a hot streak....they're hitting .282 since the all stars. and Jays .232. even phillies era since the all stars is better than jays'

[mikejamm]

Hey LT, do you ever throw 2 or 3 of these picks on a parlay?

[LT Profits]

so are Phillies at +248 worth the shot? I mean, I still don't get why Doubront is so favored. I know blue jays hit pretty good vs lefties, but Phillies are on a hot streak....they're hitting .282 since the all stars. and Jays .232. even phillies era since the all stars is better than jays'

Taking out Tulo, I still get Jays 69% (-223)