MLB - Friday, 7/3/15

[LT Profits]

4 MLB Plays Friday

Blue Jays +116 (Heritage)
Brewers / Reds UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Astros +122 (Heritage)
Padres +169 (5 Dimes)


YTD: 284-260-14, +52.39

[Big Bear]

Any thoughts on the Mets/ Dodgers under?

2 shitty offenses and 2 good pitchers

[LT Profits]

Any thoughts on the Mets/ Dodgers under?

2 shitty offenses and 2 good pitchers

And a 5.5 total. Pass.

Model has 5.8.

[Big Bear]

damn i dont think ive ever seen a total set so low

[RavensFan2k3]

damn i dont think ive ever seen a total set so low

You have

[Big Bear]

You have

not this year atleast.

One thing i am very confident of is that if Kershaw has anything left in the tank the Mets will not score tonight.

This is the best possible scenario/spot for Kershaw pitching at home against IMO the worst hitting ball club in MLB

[BamaCBass]

LT, I know you like the Pads @ that price, but it requires a pair to go against Cards @ home coming off that loss. Where do you think this number should be?

[Smoke]

You have

[LT Profits]

damn i dont think ive ever seen a total set so low

I think I have seem a couple of 5 totals.

Now this is totally from memory, but I think one was Lincecum when he was good vs. Kershaw, and another may have been Wainwright vs. Cashner in San Diego.

[Big Bear]

Padres coach Murphy says he has seen a big improvement from Cashner in the past week.

Maybe he is finally going to turn the corner?

[LT Profits]

LT, I know you like the Pads @ that price, but it requires a pair to go against Cards coming off that loss. Where do you think this number should be?

Streaks don't exist.

What I mean is I look at each game individually on its own merit. Cashner is better than his record and he is starting to turn things around. Model only has Cardinals 59% (-144).

[gizmo2431]

WoW, no bases for me, but nice year LT

[LT Profits]

I think I have seem a couple of 5 totals.

Now this is totally from memory, but I think one was Lincecum when he was good vs. Kershaw, and another may have been Wainwright vs. Cashner in San Diego.

Ok it was not Cashner as tonight is his first career start vs. St. Louis. But I do recall there being a 5 total for Wainwright in a game in San Diego.

[Fabiodog]

Any70%

[PorkChop]

Cincin / Milwa is 8.5 everywhere. Looks like you got bad number..

[LT Profits]

Cincin / Milwa is 8.5 everywhere. Looks like you got bad number..

No I did not, 8.5 was available when I put bet in too, but no lower than -125.

[goduke]

You've been doing well lately. Lately I've been around the same picks but today I'm opposite and have Detroit and Boston. Can you share your thoughts on these two or what the model you use says? I want to see it from a different perspective.

[Big Bear]

No I did not, 8.5 was available when I put bet in too, but no lower than -125.

sharp.

Not much chance that half a run will come into play and if you lose you will be glad you bet + money instead of getting juiced.

[LT Profits]

Any70%

No. "Honorable Mention" goes to Dodgers at 69%.

[PorkChop]

So you chose even 8 at -105 rather than 8.5 -125?

[BamaCBass]

Streaks don't exist.

What I mean is I look at each game individually on its own merit. Cashner is better than his record and he is starting to turn things around. Model only has Cardinals 59% (-144).

Valid point, but at least in my opinion, motivational factors (such as losing in eleven) may garner the Cards A game. Regardless, according to your model, the price is definitely right. And the irony is, if I had 100K sitting around to invest at 1%, I'd pull the trigger without getting emotionally attached to each outcome like every other poster in the world. It's a paradox: if one had the bankroll to do it right, one wouldn't be looking for the big score and focus on "value" as you do.

Thx and GL today!

[LT Profits]

You've been doing well lately. Lately I've been around the same picks but today I'm opposite and have Detroit and Boston. Can you share your thoughts on these two or what the model you use says? I want to see it from a different perspective.

Hutchison is undervalued right now, he has the best FIP, xFIP and WAR on the Toronto staff. Anibal's peripherals are way down from recent years for some reason, his FIP is over 4.00. Model actually has TORONTO 51% (-104).

Masterson has been awful and there is no reason to expect improvement with a 4.75 FIP. Model has Boston 52% (-108) vs. average Major League right-hander (which I had to use because for some reason Straily ZiP projection not on fangraphs) and Straily could be a touch better than that. He has had sub-4.00 ERA seasons in the majors before.

[LT Profits]

So you chose even 8 at -105 rather than 8.5 -125?

Correct. 8.5 -125 is roughly 8 -106.5, so -105 is fine. Model has 7.4.

[unusialsusp5]

LT, i'd be concerned that milwaukee all of a sudden is clobbering the ball the last week, averaging 7 runs a game themselves. pitching matchup favors a lower trending score, but when guys start hitting, they seem to enjoy and continue to do it and that park favors scoring. pass on that under for me. going over in the contest which will probably be the deciding game in this weeks battle against you.

[RayrayJ]

Hi, I'm new, but I've been following your plays for awhile You've been doing really well lately, congrats! Just wanted to know your thoughts on Marlins vs Cubs game?

[unusialsusp5]

i can help you out on this one. i know it's the only afternoon game but, both of these starters are pitching too good (in their last 2 starts) to play a side. i couldn't separate them and both teams are fairly hot right now. wouldn't mess with total as that park (and weather) is always a factor. pass.

[LT Profits]

LT, i'd be concerned that milwaukee all of a sudden is clobbering the ball the last week, averaging 7 runs a game themselves. pitching matchup favors a lower trending score, but when guys start hitting, they seem to enjoy and continue to do it and that park favors scoring. pass on that under for me. going over in the contest which will probably be the deciding game in this weeks battle against you.

Brewers haven't exactly been facing the greatest pitchers in the world though. Not that Lorenzen will ever be confused with Cy Young or anything but he has been serviceable and is in good form. More importantly, just about all computers love Fiers.

[LT Profits]

Hi, I'm new, but I've been following your plays for awhile You've been doing really well lately, congrats! Just wanted to know your thoughts on Marlins vs Cubs game?

FWIW, model has Cubs at 65% (-186). I just never lay these kinds of odds but I wouldn't criticize anyone that took Cubs at -168ish.

[Wolfpackofone]

sharp.

Not much chance that half a run will come into play and if you lose you will be glad you bet + money instead of getting juiced.

I always feel a little bit more dumb after reading any of your posts.

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

5 MLB Plays Friday

Giants +134 (Heritage)
Blue Jays +116 (Heritage)
Brewers / Reds UNDER 8 -105 (Heritage)
Astros +122 (Heritage)
Padres +169 (5 Dimes)

[RayrayJ]

FWIW, model has Cubs at 65% (-186). I just never lay these kinds of odds but I wouldn't criticize anyone that took Cubs at -168ish.

Thanks, I think I will just lay off then. Was hoping there was a little more worth in perhaps taking the Marlins.

[unusialsusp5]

certainly more worth taking the marlins rather than the giants who just lost 3 straight to the marlins and are starting jake peavey who has been idle and awful this year. i know LT that gonzalez is trending downward but maybe they are going to use a pitch count on peavey today. otherwise.... outlook not good for SF in this spot. don't have to guess who i took in the contest, which by the way all you baseball guru's should get in weekly (only 20 points) get in it.

[Ralphie1412]

Chris Sale in at louis DAYS ago went down to 5.5. If you've never seen 5 or 5.5 you're a noob Big Bear.

[Big Bear]

Chris Sale in at louis DAYS ago went down to 5.5. If you've never seen 5 or 5.5 you're a noob Big Bear.

[Smoke]

Chris Sale in at louis DAYS ago went down to 5.5. If you've never seen 5 or 5.5 you're a noob Big Bear.