MLB - Sunday, 6/28/15

[LT Profits]

6 MLB Plays Sunday

Nationals / Phillies UNDER 8 -110 (Game 1) (Heritage)
White Sox +167 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox +168 (5 Dimes)
Braves +116 (Heritage)
Twins / Brewers UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Padres UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)


YTD: 268-244-12, +49.59

[tony_come]

What's the play?

[MikeyD323]

Who picks white sox? Price has let up 2 runs in 17 IP against ChiSox and is home lol

[LT Profits]

Who picks white sox? Price has let up 2 runs in 17 IP against ChiSox and is home lol

+167 a nice price for Samardzija, model has Tigers 60% (-150).

[RavensFan2k3]

+167 a nice price for Samardzija, model has Tigers 60% (-150).

Whats the highest percentage your model has had a team winning?

[LT Profits]

Whats the highest percentage your model has had a team winning?

I don't know, probably in the 70s. Think I saw a few -300 lines (75%) with Scherzer facing weak offenses.

[PorkChop]

Red Sox have such a good value at +168. Really hard betting against Archer, but Masterson very well is pitching for his spot in rotation in next couple starts. Been flat out awful of late, including last week vs this same Tampa team, didnt even go 5 innings, and got shelled.

Not sure if I'll pull trigger but at +160+, My god its gonna be hard not to.

Braves ML also a solid bet.

[Fernburn74]

Colorado. Today. LT. play of the day.

[LT Profits]

Whats the highest percentage your model has had a team winning?

I don't know, probably in the 70s. Think I saw a few -300 lines (75%) with Scherzer facing weak offenses.

Colorado. Today. LT. play of the day.

I actually have a play in the 70s today and it is San Francisco 72% (-257). So I can't bet Colorado.

[LT Profits]

Also Washington 71% (-245)

[dfish]

Red Sox have such a good value at +168. Really hard betting against Archer, but Masterson very well is pitching for his spot in rotation in next couple starts. Been flat out awful of late, including last week vs this same Tampa team, didnt even go 5 innings, and got shelled.

Not sure if I'll pull trigger but at +160+, My god its gonna be hard not to.

Braves ML also a solid bet.

Masterson last pitched May 12th, @ Oakland. Archer for some reason fares below avg vs. Boston.
Over is 6.5

[dfish]

Masterson last pitched May 12th, @ Oakland. Archer for some reason fares below avg vs. Boston.
Over is 6.5

Why not back it up w the over?

[PorkChop]

Masterson last pitched May 12th, @ Oakland. Archer for some reason fares below avg vs. Boston.
Over is 6.5

Masterson was on DL, he was replaced by Joe Kelly, now he's filling in for Kellys spot rotation. Needs to pitch well today

[Big Bear]

6 MLB Plays Sunday

Nationals / Phillies UNDER 8 -110 (Game 1) (Heritage)
White Sox +167 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox +168 (5 Dimes)
Braves +116 (Heritage)
Twins / Brewers UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Padres UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)


YTD: 268-244-12, +49.59

whats the weather like in Philly?

I was thinking that game would sail over.

Line at 8 seems like the bookies are tipping they hand.

[aznjeff07]

washington 70% for game 1 or two?

[LT Profits]

washington 70% for game 1 or two?

Game 1 Strasburg.

I haven't even done Game 2 because no starter named for Nats

[Bbfromgpt]

Game 1 Strasburg.

I haven't even done Game 2 because no starter named for Nats

It's going to be Tanner Roark

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

7 MLB Plays Sunday

Nationals / Phillies UNDER 8 -110 (Game 1) (Heritage)
White Sox +167 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox +168 (5 Dimes)
Braves +116 (Heritage)
Twins / Brewers UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Padres UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Cubs / Cardinals OVER 7 +100 (Heritage)

[nickcruz60]

LT what is your take on the Yankees today please?

[LT Profits]

LT what is your take on the Yankees today please?

Small lean to Astros but not strong

[BamaCBass]

LT, since ppl don't always know what your model predicts, can you generalize how many cents off your price would still be justified as a play with value? Sorry if already asked but how many cents off actual lines, as a rule of thumb, do you require to justify a play? Thanks in advance.

[posey]

Calculate his ROI based on his bets and profit and then you know what's the range.

[paco]

Good call on Boston LT

[LT Profits]

LT, since ppl don't always know what your model predicts, can you generalize how many cents off your price would still be justified as a play with value? Sorry if already asked but how many cents off actual lines, as a rule of thumb, do you require to justify a play? Thanks in advance.

If I was basing all of my bets 100% off of model results, answer would be 10%. But in realty, I have at times made bets on plays that were just pennies off and passed on plays with more than 10% variance, so I do use SOME judgement.

[LT Profits]

Good call on Boston LT

Jinx attempt?

[badgerguy]

Wtf is Chicago doing???

[44 Mag]

7 MLB Plays Sunday

Nationals / Phillies UNDER 8 -110 (Game 1) (Heritage)
White Sox +167 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox +168 (5 Dimes)
Braves +116 (Heritage)
Twins / Brewers UNDER 8 +100 (Heritage)
Diamondbacks / Padres UNDER 7.5 -120 (Heritage)
Cubs / Cardinals OVER 7 +100 (Heritage)

Tough beat on the CWS. They had that one all the way.

[Rich Boy]

White sox have screwed me in so many games its unreal

Det also, prob hate those teams the most in all MLB

[Rich Boy]

Now Mil screwjob unfkn real

[LT Profits]

Unreal that I am not 5-0 so far. White Sox blow that 4-0 lead in 8th, Twins/Brewers was 1-1 bottom 8th.

[LT Profits]

Now Mil screwjob unfkn real

Almost simultaneous post

[KVB]

If I was basing all of my bets 100% off of model results, answer would be 10%. But in realty, I have at times made bets on plays that were just pennies off and passed on plays with more than 10% variance, so I do use SOME judgement.

Keep it up LT. Experience has built and is building a level subjective knowledge you may not realize you have. Some judgement calls utilize that knowledge when many hardly know they have it. While much of your judgement may revolve around the model, you also have subjective baseball gambling knowledge.

It's part intuition, and just part innate wisdom.

Mixing quantified subjective factors with other more straightforward statistics will greatly increase any bettors success and viewpoint of the marketplace.

Stay ahead of the curve LT, looking good.

[Ra77er]

LT you must have wanted to quit several times or weren't sure if you actually had something. Any tips other than meticulous record keeping? Do you compare to the closer everyday etc? This may be inappropriate questions.