MLB - Friday, 6/5/15

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Friday

Red Sox -106 (Heritage)
White Sox -120 (Heritage)
Brewers +120 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Twins OVER 8 -109 (5 Dimes)
Rays / Mariners OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 191-191-8, +17.95

[Big Bear]

no Phillies?

Lincecum is way over priced

[posey]

Really surprised about Red Sox and Brewers. I know it's what your system is showing you but ... you know. Miley is a bum, (normally) Kazmir much better and As hot and Red Sox cold. Same at Minny, Brewers cold and Twins hot. Lohse nothing special and Gibson at least equally good.

[Vasco]

AZ mets over 9 looks good. Niese will get shelled and Hellickson will give up some too.

[LT Profits]

Really surprised about Red Sox and Brewers. I know it's what your system is showing you but ... you know. Miley is a bum, (normally) Kazmir much better and As hot and Red Sox cold. Same at Minny, Brewers cold and Twins hot. Lohse nothing special and Gibson at least equally good.

I just addressed Brewers in Dog of the Day thread:

My model only has Twins at 51% (-104), mostly because it is not fond of Gibson. Terrible command numbers with 4.35 strikeouts vs. 3.05 walks per nine innings lead to 4.40 FIP and 4.57 xFIP, nearly two full runs higher than the ERA pointing to negative regression. Yes, Father Time could be catching up to Lohse and he has an ordinary 4.01 xFIP, but that is still 2.5 runs less than his ERA, leaving at least SOME room for positive regression.

Red Sox are partly anti-Kazmir play and partly due to A's struggles vs. lefties. Even Miley tossed 6.2 scoreless against them allowing only five hits on Oakland. A's have been even worse vs. southpaws on the road.

[Big Bear]

A's have been hitting much better lately against Lefties and RHP's FWIW

[44 Mag]

5 MLB Plays Friday

Red Sox -106 (Heritage)
White Sox -120 (Heritage)
Brewers +120 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Twins OVER 8 -109 (5 Dimes)
Rays / Mariners OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)


YTD: 191-191-8, +17.95

Well, let's hope the Red Sox don't play like Little Leaguers today. LOL.

[LT Profits]

A's have been hitting much better lately against Lefties and RHP's FWIW

Variance. Besides, not based only on this year, many in the lineup have not done well vs. lefties in their careers.

[Vinnie Paz]

That Gibson dude is a bum, him and loser pelfrey are on fade alert rest of season. Brew tt over a good play , maybe get 3.5 there? Dbags tt over another one I like. Anyhow nice find on the Gibson fade--look into Aaron Sanchez while you're at it, kids in trouble real soon

[Big Bear]

[posey]

Yeah I know about Gibson's and Lohse's sabermetrics, but they don't catch it all.

Lohse's xFIP doesn't look too bad at first glance compared to his ERA, mostly because he doesn't walk many (never has) and strikes out more than he has ever before. But he also gives up a ton of homers (1.88 per 9, that's ridiculous) and he's allowed at least one of those in 9 of his 11 outings. His WHIP is mediocre at best and that's despite his low walk rate and league average BABIP. Yeah, his 6.50 ERA won't be his ERA at the end of the season, but he has been a pitcher who had to rely on breaking and offspeed stuff all over his career because of his mediocre fastball. His curve has always been bad, but stats show that his slider and changeup have regressed a lot, too. Per fangraphs he has only one pitch this season which has a positive value/100 and that's his changeup with a rating of 0.1. And 0.1 is not very positive.

On the other hand you have Gibson, who hasn't got the best command, that's right, and doesn't strike out batters much. I think his ERA will go up, yeah. But he is a typical guy which is the complete opposite of Lohse. While Lohse's sabermetrics don't tell the whole story in the one direction, the sabers of Gibson don't tell his complete story in the other direction. And that's because Gibson does not pitch for strikeouts and guys like him always have 'bad' sabers (look at Michael Wacha, he has changed his pitching style a little bit and sits at an 4.00 xFIP and 4.13 SIERA and therefore he isn't much better if at all than Lohse when looking at those numbers).

And now I even haven't lost a single word about the offense of the two teams...and Braun is likely to sit out again.

I DO look at sabermetrics a lot, but there are several pitchers for which the sabers aren't the end of the story. Although I have to admit that for MOST MLB players the sabermetrics tell a lot.

No hate here, only my thoughts.

[Big Bear]

any leans posey?

[posey]

any leans posey?

May sound totally dumb because of how both starters did in the last few weeks, but Yankees -1 against Angels (Yankees are hot again and they have a strong track record at home on Fridays) and the rest can be found in the SDQL thread: Mets@Dbacks Under, Rangers@Royals Under, Giants@Phillies Under and Cards ML.

[Big Bear]

May sound totally dumb because of how both starters did in the last few weeks, but Yankees -1 against Angels (Yankees are hot again and they have a strong track record at home on Fridays) and the rest can be found in the SDQL thread: Mets@Dbacks Under, Rangers@Royals Under, Giants@Phillies Under and Cards ML.

thank you sir

[jron244]

What is TT and FF

[posey]

TT = Team Total (the total runs a team scores)
FF = First Five Innings (Score or Total after 5 Innings)

[LT Profits]

Yeah I know about Gibson's and Lohse's sabermetrics, but they don't catch it all.

Lohse's xFIP doesn't look too bad at first glance compared to his ERA, mostly because he doesn't walk many (never has) and strikes out more than he has ever before. But he also gives up a ton of homers (1.88 per 9, that's ridiculous) and he's allowed at least one of those in 9 of his 11 outings. His WHIP is mediocre at best and that's despite his low walk rate and league average BABIP. Yeah, his 6.50 ERA won't be his ERA at the end of the season, but he has been a pitcher who had to rely on breaking and offspeed stuff all over his career because of his mediocre fastball. His curve has always been bad, but stats show that his slider and changeup have regressed a lot, too. Per fangraphs he has only one pitch this season which has a positive value/100 and that's his changeup with a rating of 0.1. And 0.1 is not very positive.

On the other hand you have Gibson, who hasn't got the best command, that's right, and doesn't strike out batters much. I think his ERA will go up, yeah. But he is a typical guy which is the complete opposite of Lohse. While Lohse's sabermetrics don't tell the whole story in the one direction, the sabers of Gibson don't tell his complete story in the other direction. And that's because Gibson does not pitch for strikeouts and guys like him always have 'bad' sabers (look at Michael Wacha, he has changed his pitching style a little bit and sits at an 4.00 xFIP and 4.13 SIERA and therefore he isn't much better if at all than Lohse when looking at those numbers).

And now I even haven't lost a single word about the offense of the two teams...and Braun is likely to sit out again.

I DO look at sabermetrics a lot, but there are several pitchers for which the sabers aren't the end of the story. Although I have to admit that for MOST MLB players the sabermetrics tell a lot.

No hate here, only my thoughts.

Excellent post!

But entire point of having model wet up during off-season was so that I would not need to do too much "deep thinking" on gamedays, mainly referring to the model. And since it is at least 95% sabre-based, situations like this will happen from time to time, but I could live with that.

[posey]

Thanks! I fully understand what your talking about, I run some 'semi-models' myself and they are saber-based as well.

[Big Bear]

$33.33	$914.96	Pending	6 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/5/15 7:05pm MLB Baseball 903 San Francisco Giants/Philadelphia Phillies Under 8½ -125* (T Lincecum - R must Start J Williams - R must Start)
				Pending	6/5/15 9:40pm MLB Baseball 911 New York Mets/Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9½ -125* (J Niese - L must Start J Hellickson - R must Start)
				Pending	6/5/15 10:10pm MLB Baseball 913 St Louis Cardinals +108* vs Los Angeles Dodgers (C Martinez - R must Start B Anderson - L must Start)
				Pending	6/5/15 7:05pm MLB Baseball 918 New York Yankees -105* vs Los Angeles Angels (J Weaver - R must Start N Eovaldi - R must Start)
				Pending	6/5/15 8:10pm MLB Baseball 925 Texas Rangers/Kansas City Royals Under 8½ -130* (A Gonzalez - R must Start E Volquez - R must Start)
				Pending	6/5/15 12:00pm College Baseball 202 Miami Florida (Game 1) -450* vs VA Commonwealth (Game 1) (Fixed Price)

[LT Profits]

1 MLB Addition

6 MLB Plays Friday

Astros / Blue Jays UNDER 9 -105 (5 Dimes)
Red Sox -106 (Heritage)
White Sox -120 (Heritage)
Brewers +120 (5 Dimes)
Brewers / Twins OVER 8 -109 (5 Dimes)
Rays / Mariners OVER 7 -110 (Heritage)

[larry040681]

LT, thoughts on cubs@was ou 7.5?

[LT Profits]

LT, thoughts on cubs@was ou 7.5?

Seems right on, I get 7.6.

[RavensFan2k3]

LT what do you know about Reds starting pitcher Jon Moscot?

[larry040681]

Seems right on, I get 7.6.

thanks...

[LT Profits]

LT what do you know about Reds starting pitcher Jon Moscot?

Just his AAA stats. He was 7-1 with a 3.15 ERA, but not much in the peripheral department with only 34 strikeouts vs. 19 walks in 54.1 innings and a 1.27 WHIP.

[LEOLEO]

LEFT TACKLE is hot hot hot,

i hope ur increasing units, !!
PRESS BABY, ur seein the baseball right now,
things comin at you like a meatball...


#PRIMO

[LT Profits]

Let's go White Sox.

[LT Profits]

Let's go White Sox.

Good old fashioned walk off Hit by Pitch.

[LT Profits]

Not looking good for the sweep though with the Mariners 0-0 in 5th inning.