G's baseball thread and record

[G's pks]

Like that!

Thanks...


Taking the night off...watching a movie on dvd...The changling...

Hope everyone rings the register tonight!

[jakeandba]

that is a very disturbing movie...but it is a good movie to watch..

[G's pks]

Back with my two system series picks for the series beginning this week. System series record at 2-0, total games within series at 2-2. Remember this is a chase system that requires increasing your bet for games 2,3, 4 as necessary... I am not doubling each bet...more conservative than that at this time. Up.3 of a unit at this time in system only bets...well here we go...units based on $100(changing today)... using small amounts during testing period so changing a unit to $10 so it is easier for me to track. So now up 3 units converting .3 to 3.0.. I will also round off to make tracking easier...


6/1
LAD -161 GL Everyone! 2.2 to win 1.4
I understand Kuroda has been out, but remember these are system based and have passed the test to qualify as the first in a three game series. Buckner has not pitched well against the Dodgers and were one of several red lights against the Diamondbacks in the filter... Game 1 of 3 as needed, remember one win ends the chase on each series...

I am also doing something a little unusual for me... I am posting a second pick that qualifies with the newly added filters...

6/2
Minnesota Have not placed a bet for Tuesday's games yet...will place Minnesota bet and a second bet on LAD if needed ...GL Boys!

[G's pks]

For 6/2 Tuesday

Bet added...

Min -160...2.2 to win 1.4 GL Everyone...
The chase on this series starts Tuesday, bet now in. If Min. loses, a bet will be added Wednesday on game two of series... Minnesota is a tough home team... Sizemore goes on 15 day DL for Indians.

[G's pks]

added for 6/2

Dodgers -114 1.0 to win .88 Total for two games -3.2 Loss

games within series 0-2 system total with one LAD loss in 1st game of series on 6/1,6/2 also a loss, -.7 of a unit total, series total 2-0, games totals within series 2-3.

Two good pitchers going here, continuing with system picks.

Wolf tons of trouble early marking as a loss at 5-1 in 3rd...

[themajormt]

Love the Minny pick, actually like the RL a little more... Minn is very tough at home and the Indians just took a beating this weekend against the Yanks and have to travel...

GL!

[Panekkkk]

I agree,

I'm on Minny RL and ML. Cleveland without Sizemore is a wounded pup. Minny is a road beast and just look at Slowey's stats at home. Minny rarely ever wins by 1 with Slowey on the mound at home.

Cash it!

[G's pks]

Thanks guys..glad to hear some feedback... I know I cannot keep up the percentage I was winning at, and lately have not had the time to spend capping that I like. So it was/is system time...hopefully it turns a profit in the end! Using filters along with just a small amount of capping at end... GL and go Min..and I actually went smaller on the Dodger chase just because Haren at times can be extremely tough...

[G's pks]

For 6/2 Tuesday

Bet added... Dodgers 1 more unit to win .84 odds changed to -119 on second bet(2 total) to win 1.72Won

Min -160...2.2 to win 1.4 GL Everyone... Won Series win 1-0 in games
The chase on this series starts Tuesday, bet now in. If Min. loses, a bet will be added Wednesday on game two of series... Minnesota is a tough home team... Sizemore goes on 15 day DL for Indians.

Had to come back in and edit to a win thanks guys for catching it...I turned computer off while Arizona was up 5-1 in the 6th. Nice 5 run rally by the Dodgers in the 8th that I missed...and we have another series winner! Dodgers 6 Diamondbacks 5Won
...

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 9-3-1 (13-3-1)counting system series pick)
Total 21-4-1NHL, NBA, MLB
System plays based on 3/4 game series 4-0
total games within series(3-4).
Series winnersDetroit 1st game 1-0 total games 5/22
LAA 3rd game series winner 1-2 total games 5/28
Minnesota first game win 1-0 total games 6/2
LAD wins second game on 6/2 series win 1-1 in series games

Series totals 4-0 Games within series (4-3)

System total +/- (+3.42 Units)

[melincrea]

1-1 for the day...series with twins ends automatically with win in first game. Unfortunately the Dodgers 0-2, up to now within the series with arz. Will be on Dodgers again tomorrow...I guess ....Marked a loss early down 5-1 in sixth now..system totals below...



G's recordkeeping
Baseball 9-3-1 (11-3-1 counting system series picks)
Total 19-4-1 (NHL, NBA, MLB)

System plays based on 3/4 game series 2-0,
total games within series(3-4).
Series winners (Already getting confusing!)Detroit 1st game 1-0 total games 5/22
LAA 3rd game series winner 1-2 total games 5/28
Minnesota first game win 1-0 total games 6/2
LAD down in games 0-2 going into third game of series on 6/3.
Series totals 2-0, LAD pending.

System total +/- (+.7)

Dodgers winning!

[owll52]

Dodgers win 6-5

[G's pks]

Thanks guys...guess I have some editing to do to the dodger loss I posted...thanks changing to a win! It was 5-1 Arz when I turned computer off for night...thanks again guys!

Series chases perfect at 4-0 I have a nice system going here boys... Ok now to change/edit the mess and give myself that win! And correct totals...

[G's pks]

This system took alot of work and is doing awesome! Again though the way it works one win and the series ends for the system play. I will now have to wait for the new series to start...right now the series are either in second or third game depending on if the series started on Monday or Tuesday.

Hopefully I can filter out two teams again for the next series... Even though 4-0, still making adjustments to filters, also filters still sometimes allow to many teams through... That is where I jump in and do the capping...and look for pitching mismatches which yes do usually lead to favorites...but the system is perfect I will not argue...

Thanks again for catching the mistake, when I do my handwritten logs for system or the works spread sheet I would have caught...or when I checked my account. Well back for the series starting on Thursday. Still cannot believe the Dodgers got 5 in the 8th to win! .. G.

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 9-3-1 (13-3-1)counting system series pick)
Total 21-4-1NHL, NBA, MLB
System plays based on 3/4 game series 4-0
total games within series(3-4).
Series winnersDetroit 1st game 1-0 total games 5/22
LAA 3rd game series winner 1-2 total games 5/28
Minnesota first game win 1-0 total games 6/2
LAD wins second game on 6/2 series win 1-1 in series games

Series totals 4-0 Games within series (4-3)

System total +/- (+3.42 Units)
__________________

[dreamjob]

I also couldn't believe the great comeback. I also thought that the dodgers was a good play. I first played them on Monday. They played horribly and was 90 feet away from tying it. I then doubled my bet in the chase and Thank god! they pulled it off. Great pick G. I'm waiting to see which winner you will pick next. I didn't play MIN cause I also bet STL on Monday so I also chased them on Tuesday. Double winner
DJ

[G's pks]

I also couldn't believe the great comeback. I also thought that the dodgers was a good play. I first played them on Monday. They played horribly and was 90 feet away from tying it. I then doubled my bet in the chase and Thank god! they pulled it off. Great pick G. I'm waiting to see which winner you will pick next. I didn't play MIN cause I also bet STL on Monday so I also chased them on Tuesday. Double winner
DJ

Glad to see you picked up two wins also.

St Louis/Cincinnati series was filtered out because Cinci has been among a few other things a good road team. I am going to let the filters pick 4-5 for next series than narrow down to 1-3 teams using my pitching mismatch, and a few other stats I use. I am very strongly in favor of using stats. No more bets for me using system in current series, unless I just cap my own bets...Thinking of just riding into next series after that incredible LAD comeback...

I wanted to mention for this to work I am trying to develop a money management system for the series chase picks too. You may notice at times I will not double down. Also if a key injury or losing streak appears to be starting I will back off...with the system that should be screened out most of the time (the losing streak). With the injuries I cannot predict.

The idea being to turn a profit, we have some here losing every day. They are just throwing money away on parlays and guesses. I can tell you if the system is followed according to my stats...We will have a 6 to 10% chance of losing a series. So I will be happy if my stats are not lying with a 9-1 series record...just have to try to cushion the blow because I am figuring a series loss is around 6-7 losses...but if works this way should still end up in 60% area...

So if anyone is constantly losing, this system creates just enough action to keep you busy. Also you should end up a few dollars at end of year...hopefully will depend on the final part of filter..my capping or what you choose... I went through 10 hours of data last week... and that has become the backbone of system...

If anyone has a good idea on managing money in the three game chase fire away! Please! I tried a system like this that I made years ago and missed only because of money management... Unlike J. Morrison, I will select at least one series every new series... I have seen a few of these going now...lets see if this chase gets through the year. My thread was started at beginning of the baseball season.

One goal make it to the end of the baseball season without blowing my positive cash flow from NBA and NFL... Up to now it is happening... System is 4-0 + 3.42 units... And that is using a conservative style not doubling each bet. GL G.

[jakeandba]

Thanks for all the effort and time put into this system...you must do it for the "fun" of it since it takes a ton of time to prep and create this system.

[G's pks]

Thanks...when the games end within the series like they did yesterday, it gives me that time to enjoy and do other things. Also to watch how my own paper/pen picks are doing...

I am going to work on two more systems when I get the energy! I have two great ideas for underdogs and total runs... But that will be another time... GL G.

[G's pks]

Here we go lets make some dollars! After three hours of research and screening using the filters... I have come up with three chase series for the weekend. I am not sure if I am betting 1, 2, or 3 yet. I wanted to get them posted, might try all 3. So for now they are listed as leans in order of filter/capping strength.
A series win requires one win within the three game series.
#1 St Louis

#2 Detroit

#3 Toronto

Again each series ends automatically with a win. If game one loses, bet enough to win on game two, and if necessary game 3. I am not always doubling my amounts in the chase. And again warning this is a chase system and can be costly if I am wrong a few times... Up to now system is 4-0 series wise... Will post final pick/picks tomorrow morning... GL everyone lets make some cash this weekend!

[dreamjob]

I love your STL pick. I got them also BOS and FLA. Texas has not done well on the east coast in years and I expect that trend to continue. Most of those road losses came on the east coast. SF played a double header last night and flew to FLA so they should be exhausted. Your system seems very solid I will follow. I also made some UDOG picks for a lot less money but I figure take a shot for cheap. Good luck on your plays G whatever you decide. Let's make some money and have fun.
DJ

[G's pks]

5/5

Baseball MLB
St Louis Cardinals ML -169
J De La Rosa -L must Start A Wainwright -R must Start
Risking 3 Units to Win 1.78 Units(loss within series 0-1)

System play, if it loses, a second bet is added on St. Louis in game two of series.

Will add 2nd bet within series.

Updated after loss..System today -3 units today...total +.42, series total 4-0, games within series 4-4

[G's pks]

I love your STL pick. I got them also BOS and FLA. Texas has not done well on the east coast in years and I expect that trend to continue. Most of those road losses came on the east coast. SF played a double header last night and flew to FLA so they should be exhausted. Your system seems very solid I will follow. I also made some UDOG picks for a lot less money but I figure take a shot for cheap. Good luck on your plays G whatever you decide. Let's make some money and have fun.
DJ

Thanks DJ, just posted first play (St L), might add 1-2 more. Not very happy with a filter or two on Toronto, and of course the starting pitching matchup has me raising a red flag... But KC is a crap team with a great pitcher... So might wait and jump in on game two of series if Toronto loses.

I like Detroit still but not sure I want to drop the heavy chalk twice tonight. Might still play Detroit, but right now just the one play on the Cards... If I add anything will post... Go Cards...

[G's pks]

Saturday
5/6 St. Louis -130 ML 3.16 units to win 2.43 loss
(series chase 0-1)(series 0-2)including Sat game.

Afer trailing 2-1 in the 7th, the Cards bullpen fell apart in game 1 on Friday. So adding this early bet already for Saturday... System still up .42 of a unit and 4-0 in series totals. But games within series now at 4-4. Working on an added filter to reduce losses, but unfortunately with reducing losses within the series will also be reducing games...might add as a second system starting tomorrow so bets do not decrease within series.

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 9-3-1 (13-3-1)counting system series pick)
Total 21-4-1NHL, NBA, MLB
System plays based on 3/4 game series 4-0
total games within series(3to4).
Series winnersDetroit 1st game 1-0 total games 5/22
LAA 3rd game series winner 1-2 total games 5/28
Minnesota first game win 1-0 total games 6/2
LAD wins second game on 6/2 series win 1-1 in series games

Series totals 4-0 Games within series (4-5)updated loss 6-6

System total +/- (+.42 Units)(-2.74)undated 6/6

[G's pks]

St Louis Cardinals
Money Line -129 for Game
9 units to win 7 GL Everyone! loss
Down now 0-2 in this chase, and yesterday saw the system turn negative for the first time(-2.47 units). Hopefully today the system picks itself back up with a winner!

system now -11.74 units...system loss series record falls to 4-1, games witin series (4-6)...end of system 1! Even though system one had potential...winning 4/5 series, the games total being below .500 are unacceptable.

G's recordkeeping
Baseball 9-3-1 (13-4-1)counting system series pick)
Total 21-5-1NHL, NBA, MLB
System 1 plays based on 3/4 game series 4-1
total games within series(4-6).
Series winnersDetroit 1st game 1-0 total games 5/22
LAA 3rd game series winner 1-2 total games 5/28
Minnesota first game win 1-0 total games 6/2
LAD wins second game on 6/2 series win 1-1 in series games
St Louis swept...loss(0-3)
Series totals 4-1 Games within series (4-6)

System total +/- (-11.74 units for System 1) end of system 1...moving onto another system next week. System 1 did create more bets for me but did not manage a .500 record after 10 games...which means it is terminated! Well I put a lot of time into the series system and I am going to look what I need to do to improve it... Will be back for next set of series with system 2... One more shot at a system, if it does not work back to capping.

[G's pks]

Well I have been happy with my winners...and now pissed with the first system I tried... St Louis came in with a home record of 19-11 to start the series against the Rockies who were 12-18 on the road.. All systems appeared on go! Well not quite....Cardinals get swept...and take a bite out of my year long profits...

Thanks to money management and I am still not ready to give up on system play will move onto system 2 next week... I like being able to blame the system for the losses But with the new series will come a set of new filters to improve odds...

Hope everyone had a fantastic weekend... G. Wow did the Cards get hammered in all three games against the Rockies...

[dreamjob]

Not so fast G. The cards play them one more time. Of course they face Colorado's ace Marquis. I also lost a good chunk chasing STL. The cards can't hit or pitch in this series.

[G's pks]

Not so fast G. The cards play them one more time. Of course they face Colorado's ace Marquis. I also lost a good chunk chasing STL. The cards can't hit or pitch in this series.

Oh there is a 4th game??? <<<Me.... I guess the system has one more play to keep it alive...thanks... I will play the cards...not sure on amount...

Of the 3 systems plays i listed for the series chase, Detroit and Toronto took care of business... Guess the cards get one more chance... So system still breathing but on life support... Absolutely no hitting by cards in series... Not scared of Marquis

But not liking Thompson's #'s as I look... But will give it a shot...either way...I should have played all three system picks...of course the one that looks the best did the worst!

[jakeandba]

Yep i agree with you 1000% bro....it would appear after these three games, Colorado is going to the World Series....

[G's pks]

Yep i agree with you 1000% bro....it would appear after these three games, Colorado is going to the World Series....

Very...very strange series... cards seem like they could not make out quick enough! Well lets see what happens Monday...

[cocknocker]

Stop the experiment now. If you don't have the WHIP and the slugging% over the last three games on your side, you ain't got shit.

[G's pks]

Stop the experiment now. If you don't have the WHIP and the slugging% over the last three games on your side, you ain't got shit.

Going to give it one more shot thanks... But I have noticed the info you have started posting... One more game...still up on baseball...but going to add more filters starting tomorrow, thanks will take a look with next group of series... One last try on Cards...fingers crossed!

[G's pks]

game four of this chase...

Cards -126 8.82 units to win 7..GL everyone!

[themajormt]

I am on it as well G... I have been watching the series closely and was going to spot bet it yesterday but laid off because of Piniero... I am very nervous about Thompson though, not sure if he has the arm to go deeper than 5 innings... I am also playing the over as well.

GL!

[G's pks]

I am on it as well G... I have been watching the series closely and was going to spot bet it yesterday but laid off because of Piniero... I am very nervous about Thompson though, not sure if he has the arm to go deeper than 5 innings... I am also playing the over as well.

GL!

GL just got in down already 3-1 in 5th!

come on Cards...

[themajormt]

I wish I couldve found a prop for the over under on Thompson's innings pitched... While capping the game the ONLY thing I was worried about was going to the bullpen early... And it happened...

We still go this though!!

[Panekkkk]

G for future reference,

I did some heavy research and digging in some posts about BouncedCheck's and some other 3-game chase systems. Some interesting stats came up.

Around 5 times per year, a home team gets swept in a 4-game home series. At least 2-3 of these 5 times, there is no explanation for the loss. A good team loses at home to another team. One indicator I've seen relates to the first few games of the series. If the home team gets absolutely shelled in the first three, or even in the first two, stay away...