Posey's Pick Of The Day

[posey]

Gonna start a thread here mostly because of fun. Some may know me already since I have been contributing a little bit over the past few weeks in Mitch's thread, in the Dog of the Day thread, the SQDL thread and some others.

I like to analyze games deep. I like stats, I like trends, I like streaks and I like logical thinking. I like baseball and everything which comes with it. I am a big Giants fan, but I have gotten the ability to be not too biased when capping their games.

I hope I will find the time to keep this thread up with a pick every day (it may fall of a little bit). I plan to write a short summary about my pick of the day with a little analysis and some numbers. It will mainly be a standard ML play, occasionally a RL or OU play. Most times I bet plus odds. I use Pinnaclesports as my bookie as it's the best one available for me since I am from Germany. 1 unit flat betting.

Feel free to contribute, ask questions, whatever!

[A4K]

Not to sound like a brown-noser, but you are my favorite baseball poster. I look forward to your thread. I will be following.

BOL

[2buckluck]

Not to sound like a brown-noser, but you are my favorite baseball poster. I look forward to your thread. I will be following.

BOL

Ditto, this is awesome, I'll keep an eye on this one! BOL!

[No coincidences]

Good luck, man.

[jailbait7127]

thx bro! gl hope u kill it

[Big Bear]

Not to sound like a brown-noser, but you are my favorite baseball poster. I look forward to your thread. I will be following.

BOL

mine too. Well i like you and Benny Big Nuts

[posey]

4/29
Phillies (A. Harang) @ Cardinals (C. Martinez)
Cardinals -1.5 @ +130


Starters:
Harang is off to a very strong start for a weak Phillies team. He is 2-1 with a 1.37 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP. Several stats see him having his best season of his career so far or at least since some seasons. In all of his 4 starts he pitched 6 innings or more. He went off the mound without giving up a run 2 times. His FB and slider have worked very well so far and he has given up only 1 HR thusfar. The average score of his 4 starts was 2.5 - 1.8. He has owned Reynolds, Molina, Holliday, Jay and Adams over his career. This all looks very, very good and doesn't suggest that it would be wise to pick a RL-play on the Cards today.
But there are several drawbacks which lead me to the conclusion that he will never ever keep this up. When looking at some other stats you will see his weaknesses. While he's given up only 1 longball, he averages a career high in FB% (47.1). Along with his very low GB% (32.4, lowest of his career) this smells like trouble sooner or later. Add the fact to it that he had some luck (.203 BABIP, 86.7% LOB) it's likely that he will fall off. It's only a matter of time. Besides that, several Cards have quite good stats against him (e.g. Carpenter, Bourjos, Peralta, Heyward).
Carlos Martinez takes the mound for the Cards. He is 2-0 in 3 starts and 1 game out of the pen. He is a strikeout-pitcher (27.6% K%), because he throws flames, his FB touches 100 mph on occasion. And although he has given up some HRs already this season, you can expect that he will lower this number since he can keep the ball on the ground. Although he had some luck this season, too (very low BABIP, below .200) I see him in the much better spot. Nearly all Phillies haven't seen him enough to write much about BvP stats, but the Phillies strike out enough and have bad stats against RHP this season (see below).

Batting:
I have written about the relevant BvP stats above, but there are other things to talk about.
The Phillies clearly have one of the worst offenses in the NL and MLB this year. Howard and Utley are a shadow of their former selfs and the rest of the lineup is nothing special. They are batting only .177 with RISP, which is the worst number of all teams, too. Combining the PAs and ABs of all batters with at least 10 PAs thusfar, the Phillies are batting only .215, need 56.4 ABs for a HR and strik eout at a rate of 18.7% (all against against RHP). There are only 3 guys who have a better AVG than .240 against RHP (Galvis, Asche, Herrera), but 7 with an AVG of .196 or worse against RHP. So even if Harang is capable of keeping the Cards in check at least a little bit, who should hurt Martinez? The Phillies are the worst team with RISP in the MLB.
On the other side the Cards (players with 10 PAs or more) AVG is at .291, they need only 39.2 ABs for a HR and strikeout only in 16% of their PAs (all against RHP). 6 Cards bat .291 or better against RHP this season. And only to take one player as an example, Matt Holliday has been bad against Harang (see above), but he is doing very well overall against RHP, batting .340. It could be a good match for him to show Harang where the frog has the locks. Matt Carpenter has been a stud thusfar with 3 HR and a .368 AVG with only 7 Ks in 64 PA against RHP this season.
The Cards numbers with RISP aren't elite, but they are at least decent. So although some guys have struggled Harang, I don't put too much weight on it. The Cards have the better and hotter lineup and with their experience I think they are in a very good spot to put a (first) end to Harang's fairy tale.

Bullpen:
I don't think the BPs will play a big role in this one, but some words on them nonetheless. The Phillies BP has started the season strong, but fell off in recent outings. Besides Papelbon there aren't any proven names. Ken Giles has some talent, but he is still young.
The Cards BP is much better in my opinion and they have been doing very well this season.

More facts:
- the Cardinals are 13-2 on the ML (+31.6% ROI) and 10-5 on the RL (+43.0 ROI) as home favorites of -160 or lower in the third game of a series against teams with a win percentage of smaller than .500 when the Cards won the previous game since July 2012
- the Cardinals are 17-3 on the ML (+39.0% ROI) and 13-7 on the RL (+51.8%) at home against NL teams in the third game of the series when the first two games were split and the Cards starter wasn't Shelby Miller or Joe Kelly, outscoring their opponents 5.2-2.8 on average, since 2012 in the regular season
- the Cardinals are 6-1 on the ML (+38.9%) and 5-2 on the RL (+77.1% ROI) at home when the opponent's starter was a right hander in 2015; they won the last 6 of those in a row with the average score being 5.3-1.8 in the last 6
- the Phillies are 8-28 on the ML (+25.5% ROI on their opponents) and 13-23 on the RL (+51.3% on their opponents) in the third game of an away series as dogs since May 2013, losing 10 of their last 11 (8 of the losses with 2 runs difference or bigger)
- the Phillies are 3-19 on the ML (+37.2% ROI on their opp.) and 6-16 on the RL (+71.5% ROI on their opp.) in those games when the total was 7.5 or lower

[44 Mag]

Gonna start a thread here mostly because of fun. Some may know me already since I have been contributing a little bit over the past few weeks in Mitch's thread, in the Dog of the Day thread, the SQDL thread and some others.

I like to analyze games deep. I like stats, I like trends, I like streaks and I like logical thinking. I like baseball and everything which comes with it. I am a big Giants fan, but I have gotten the ability to be not too biased when capping their games.

I hope I will find the time to keep this thread up with a pick every day (it may fall of a little bit). I plan to write a short summary about my pick of the day with a little analysis and some numbers. It will mainly be a standard ML play, occasionally a RL or OU play. Most times I bet plus odds. I use Pinnaclesports as my bookie as it's the best one available for me since I am from Germany. 1 unit flat betting.

Feel free to contribute, ask questions, whatever!

[BayArea888]

[red12sox]

Looking forward to it. Good luck man.

[trobin31]

Sweet write up, thanks!

[2buckluck]

Nice summary, with you on this!

[posey]

Thanks guys, you are all welcome! Feel free to criticize my picks or add another view to it!

Don't feel confused if I change or add something to the write up after I posted it. If I find trends, stats or something else what backs up my pick, I will add it via an edit.

[FlyinAir]

Awesome! Good luck

[terrortwylight]

Nice work Posey. Thank you for your brilliant work.

[zekeone]

Thanks Posey for the analysis. GL

[bking79]

Good luck posey

[Sweatin da Bet]

Hell of a write up!!! GL on your picks

[44 Mag]

Too ,long brother. BOL.

[Pushbet]

I gave this game a look earlier and it screamed Under to me. GL with your RL.

[posey]

A 3-1 or 4-2 is good for both of us.

[44 Mag]

A 3-1 or 4-2 is good for both of us.

BOL to you both. I just can't see STL losing to this pathetic, anemic, boring offense.

[Calgunner23]

I'll take it! Thanks Posey.

[RollinDo]

I am on Cards ML tonight...playing every home series for Cards and instead of paying the juice at start of series (-250), only -180.

[mitch51]

Nice write-up and nice thread, Posey. We're gonna tail your dogs.

[A4K]

Thanks guys, you are all welcome! Feel free to criticize my picks or add another view to it!

Don't feel confused if I change or add something to the write up after I posted it. If I find trends, stats or something else what backs up my pick, I will add it via an edit.

This is what I appreciate about you, you are open to discussion. Keep the picks coming.

[Pushbet]

Why I don't pick unders... Great inning for the Cards

[2buckluck]

Cheers Posey, great start!

[mitch51]

Nice call on the Cards, Posey. Plus, nice to have a perfect record in your new thread.

[posey]

4/29
Phillies (A. Harang) @ Cardinals (C. Martinez)
Cardinals -1.5 @ +130

2-5. +1.30 u.

Nearly as I did expect it. Harang finally came down to earth a little bit and although Martinez didn't K as much as I expected it, the Phillies struggled with RISP.

Overall:
1-0, +1.30 u.




Thanks to all the others in this thread.

[donnydoucher]

Great hit my man! I love the in-depth write ups. If it ever feels too time consuming to type all of the trends and stats out, I (and others I assume) don't object to just having you tell us what your daily play is. Even a quick explainarion wouldn't be bad, I know it can be laborious writing everything out. Keep up the good work!! I'm excited for the season!

[posey]

Thank you!

Yeah I will simply do what I am capable of.

The funny thing about in-depth write ups is that when you do your own and compare them to 'popular cappers' who write for particular websites as a profession and sell their picks for money (I think you know what or who I mean, there are tons out there), you will realize who many BS these guys write much too often.

[RollinDo]

Great job Posey!
Look f/w to the play today.

Since Waino got injured indefinitely, the odds for Cards to win ML dropped to +800.
I LOVE this futures bet...already got +650 a week ago and now they're not giving Cards a good shot because of 1 starting pitcher...it's a big loss- yeah, but Cards are clutch...I believe it will get down to +400 or so mid-summer.

[Pushbet]

Cards are definitely strong. 14-6 on the RL this season.

[covertops]

Great work I agree with this write up 100% and was on the -1 RL large