MLB - Saturday, 4/25/15

[LT Profits]

5 MLB Plays Saturday

Astros +114 (Heritage)
Yankees -107 (Heritage)
Nationals / Marlins OVER 7.5 +113 (5 Dimes)
Padres +114 (5 Dimes)
Rangers +149 (Heritage)


YTD: 55-55-3, +3.19

[a4u2fear]

over 100 plays already this year? Crazy.

[LT Profits]

over 100 plays already this year? Crazy.

Only averaging about 6 per day.

[mlb]

over 100 plays already this year? Crazy.

I've actually played more than this. I am up just under 8 units - Been taking mostly dogs and short favs - variance may start to catch up so I will need to scale back, but not going juicy has definitely helped.

[Big Bear]

let me see if i understand the astros play correctly

2 shitty pitchers so go with the dog right?

[LT Profits]

let me see if i understand the astros play correctly

2 shitty pitchers so go with the dog right?

Since Houston is better in some other areas, yes.

[RavensFan2k3]

Since Houston is better in some other areas, yes.

What percentage do you have them winning

[posey]

let me see if i understand the astros play correctly

2 shitty pitchers so go with the dog right?

Feldman WHIP 1.25.
Graveman WHIP 1.97.
Feldman 1.4% BB.
Graveman 13.3% BB.
Feldman 3 GS: 6.0 IP, 2 ER / 5.0 IP, 7 ER / 6.2 IP, 1 ER (+1 R which wasn't ER).
Graveman 3 GS: 3.0 IP, 2 ER / 5.1 IP, 0 ER / 3.1 IP, 7 ER (+2 R which weren't ER).

The only thing that speaks for Graveman is that he had his single good outing against the Stros and that Feldman had his single bad outing against the As.

[RavensFan2k3]

Feldman WHIP 1.25.
Graveman WHIP 1.97.
Feldman 1.4% BB.
Graveman 13.3% BB.
Feldman 3 GS: 6.0 IP, 2 ER / 5.0 IP, 7 ER / 6.2 IP, 1 ER (+1 R which wasn't ER).
Graveman 3 GS: 3.0 IP, 2 ER / 5.1 IP, 0 ER / 3.1 IP, 7 ER (+2 R which weren't ER).

The only thing that speaks for Graveman is that he had his single good outing against the Stros and that Feldman had his single bad outing against the As.

Exactly, not sure how Feldman is considered a shitty pitcher

[posey]

Exactly, not sure how Feldman is considered a shitty pitcher

Yap, I would call him 'solid'. Doesn't K many, but doesn't walk many guys either and isn't too prone to giving up the long ball. Graveman has still everything to prove.

Way too many people look into ERA as the go-to-stat, especially at the start of the season. An ERA of 3.50 may be a reliable stat for Pitcher A, when all other stats are appropriate. But because of different possibilities an ERA can either be 'too high' or 'too low'.

[RavensFan2k3]

Yap, I would call him 'solid'. Doesn't K many, but doesn't walk many guys either and isn't too prone to giving up the long ball. Graveman has still everything to prove.

Way too many people look into ERA as the go-to-stat, especially at the start of the season. An ERA of 3.50 may be a reliable stat for Pitcher A, when all other stats are appropriate. But because of different possibilities an ERA can either be 'too high' or 'too low'.

Exactly man, that's exactly right right

[jjgold]

LT good early pace.....college hoops you got out of the gate to quick and it hurt

[Ghenghis Kahn]

lt why the huge move on the yankees game? last night also.

is it basically the mets hitting?

[posey]

lt why the huge move on the yankees game? last night also.

is it basically the mets hitting?

Despite a good record some things still stand out, similar to yesterday:
- they had a weak schedule
- Sabathia has a 4.35 ERA, but all his other stats look decent: 8.71 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 0.44 HR/9, .282 BAA but .368 BABIP (which suggests he was kinda unlucky), 1.26 WHIP
- Matt Harvey slightly worse on the road compared to home over his career
- Yankees with tougher schedule, also a positive W/L rec and at home

[jbess]

Love the plays....think I will take the mets though....not feeling the yankees tonight :/

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Despite a good record some things still stand out, similar to yesterday:
- they had a weak schedule
- Sabathia has a 4.35 ERA, but all his other stats look decent: 8.71 K/9, 1.74 BB/9, 0.44 HR/9, .282 BAA but .368 BABIP (which suggests he was kinda unlucky), 1.26 WHIP
- Matt Harvey slightly worse on the road compared to home over his career
- Yankees with tougher schedule, also a positive W/L rec and at home

this doesn't explain the 30 cent move though. there's gotta be more than this. you don't think the odds makers know about all this?

[posey]

There were (as I said) 'similar' odds movements yesterday. I can only speak of Pinnacle (I am from Europe and it's by far the best bookie for MLB) and they opened at 2.07 and closed at 2.35.

[Big Bear]

Exactly, not sure how Feldman is considered a shitty pitcher

he's not. but i dont really trust him like i do Kuechel

[FlyinAir]

Hey LT, I don't see how you profited from last night (Friday April 25th). Double check your units?

[LT Profits]

Hey LT, I don't see how you profited from last night (Friday April 25th). Double check your units?

Yes, made a few cents. Went 5-5-1 with a couple of +odds winners. All losers were +odds too, so lost no vig.

[FlyinAir]

Laying 1u on Dogs
And laying to win 1u on favs, right?