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  • The Alchemist
    SBR High Roller
    • 04-06-15
    • 141

    #1
    Twins ML
    Damn.. I placed my bet on the twins, then just found found out they are terrible against lefties and KC is smashing lefties..

    Damn it man, rookie move and degen....
  • High3rEl3m3nt
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 09-28-10
    • 8022

    #2
    you never know.
    Comment
    • The Alchemist
      SBR High Roller
      • 04-06-15
      • 141

      #3
      I hope so.. I have lost a lot these last four days.. On a horrible streak..
      Comment
      • High3rEl3m3nt
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 09-28-10
        • 8022

        #4
        I had a rough start too. Good news is one of us will win today
        Comment
        • Emancipator
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 04-12-13
          • 788

          #5
          Its a decent bet I think. Royals do smash lefties. But they are probably overvalued somewhat, getting less than 20% of bets. Milone had a solid game last outing. Perhaps he can bring the Royals back to what will be reality with a larger sample size.
          Comment
          • The Alchemist
            SBR High Roller
            • 04-06-15
            • 141

            #6
            Just read your post. seem to do your homework. BOL, although I don't think you will need it.
            Comment
            • The Alchemist
              SBR High Roller
              • 04-06-15
              • 141

              #7
              @emancipator Man hopefully!! I feel like a rookie with figure out the facts. But you made a good point. Hmm right now I'm a just wondering do I just try to hedge it out or let it ride.
              Comment
              • High3rEl3m3nt
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 09-28-10
                • 8022

                #8
                What number did you get? If you got a solid number, I'd stand pat.
                Comment
                • The Alchemist
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 04-06-15
                  • 141

                  #9
                  Obviously if I do try to hedge it, I have to place way more to make profit if KC win. If the twins win, it would be like placing a bet on KC in the first place.. Hmm..
                  Comment
                  • High3rEl3m3nt
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 09-28-10
                    • 8022

                    #10
                    I am not sure if you bet a lot on twins, but if you bet within your means, your objective is to get the best number possible and I am thinking you probably did. It'd be a mistake to diminish your edge.
                    Comment
                    • The Alchemist
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 04-06-15
                      • 141

                      #11
                      @High I have it at +111. Got it last night.
                      Comment
                      • High3rEl3m3nt
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-28-10
                        • 8022

                        #12
                        You are beating the sharpest book by five cents and the public is all over the Royals. In the short term, picking more winners is important to a small br, but if you are in this for the long haul, you met your objective by getting a great number.
                        Comment
                        • High3rEl3m3nt
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-28-10
                          • 8022

                          #13
                          Of course the line is now moving the other way as I typed that.

                          I will say this, the line does not move against the Royals without respectable money siding with the Twins.
                          Comment
                          • riffraff24
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 04-20-11
                            • 7234

                            #14
                            Click image for larger version

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                            Comment
                            • The Alchemist
                              SBR High Roller
                              • 04-06-15
                              • 141

                              #15
                              Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt
                              You are beating the sharpest book by five cents and the public is all over the Royals. In the short term, picking more winners is important to a small br, but if you are in this for the long haul, you met your objective by getting a great number.
                              Yea I'm trying to be in it for the long haul. Kind of rough right now. Thanks for the feedback man. Not sure what I am going to do, leaning on just letting it ride.
                              Comment
                              • The Alchemist
                                SBR High Roller
                                • 04-06-15
                                • 141

                                #16
                                Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt
                                Of course the line is now moving the other way as I typed that.

                                I will say this, the line does not move against the Royals without respectable money siding with the Twins.
                                Alright this is interesting then.. Well damn I'm confused!
                                Comment
                                • The Alchemist
                                  SBR High Roller
                                  • 04-06-15
                                  • 141

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by riffraff24
                                  [ATTACH]80473[/ATTACH]
                                  Nice where did you get that sir?
                                  Comment
                                  • riffraff24
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 04-20-11
                                    • 7234

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by The Alchemist
                                    Nice where did you get that sir?
                                    made it
                                    Comment
                                    • The Alchemist
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 04-06-15
                                      • 141

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by riffraff24
                                      made it
                                      Excel spreadsheet?
                                      Comment
                                      • riffraff24
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 04-20-11
                                        • 7234

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by The Alchemist
                                        Excel spreadsheet?
                                        Yes
                                        Comment
                                        • riffraff24
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 04-20-11
                                          • 7234

                                          #21
                                          I make a more in depth one as the season goes on. I add a lot of stats that would be irrelevant this early in the season
                                          Comment
                                          • The Alchemist
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 04-06-15
                                            • 141

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by riffraff24
                                            I make a more in depth one as the season goes on. I add a lot of stats that would be irrelevant this early in the season
                                            Nice man. I'm going to have to create one myself, not sure how, but I'm sure there are tutorials for it. Like the idea.
                                            Comment
                                            • High3rEl3m3nt
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 09-28-10
                                              • 8022

                                              #23
                                              Dailybaseballdata also provides a snapshot of hitter pitcher stats--though I'd argue that it's important to not overvalue this kind of data.

                                              link
                                              Comment
                                              • riffraff24
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 04-20-11
                                                • 7234

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by The Alchemist
                                                Nice man. I'm going to have to create one myself, not sure how, but I'm sure there are tutorials for it. Like the idea.
                                                if you wanna pm me your email ill send you mine. i dont mind sharing
                                                Comment
                                                • The Alchemist
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 04-06-15
                                                  • 141

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by High3rEl3m3nt
                                                  Dailybaseballdata also provides a snapshot of hitter pitcher stats--though I'd argue that it's important to not overvalue this kind of data.

                                                  link
                                                  Thanks man!!
                                                  Comment
                                                  • The Alchemist
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 04-06-15
                                                    • 141

                                                    #26
                                                    Starting to think I need to place my bet on KC.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • riffraff24
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 04-20-11
                                                      • 7234

                                                      #27
                                                      Milone - 11.57 ERA at Target Field and 12.15 ERA vs KC last year.

                                                      im torn now
                                                      Comment
                                                      • riffraff24
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 04-20-11
                                                        • 7234

                                                        #28
                                                        eh sticking to my guns. Go Twinks
                                                        Comment
                                                        • The Alchemist
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 04-06-15
                                                          • 141

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by riffraff24
                                                          eh sticking to my guns. Go Twinks
                                                          I messaged you my email my man. Yeah it's tough also seeing a lot of late money going into KC...
                                                          Comment
                                                          • The Alchemist
                                                            SBR High Roller
                                                            • 04-06-15
                                                            • 141

                                                            #30
                                                            Lol now it's going into twins..
                                                            Comment
                                                            • The Alchemist
                                                              SBR High Roller
                                                              • 04-06-15
                                                              • 141

                                                              #31
                                                              Well I'll take it!! Nice!
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 44 Mag
                                                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                • 10-14-13
                                                                • 34490

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by The Alchemist
                                                                Damn.. I placed my bet on the twins, then just found found out they are terrible against lefties and KC is smashing lefties..

                                                                Damn it man, rookie move and degen....
                                                                Nice call on the "Reverse Jinx".
                                                                Comment
                                                                • 44 Mag
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 10-14-13
                                                                  • 34490

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by The Alchemist
                                                                  I messaged you my email my man. Yeah it's tough also seeing a lot of late money going into KC...
                                                                  Correct, it all went to the "books".
                                                                  Comment
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