" Dog of the Day"

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  • larry040681
    SBR MVP
    • 10-05-10
    • 2813

    #2801
    Originally posted by 2buckluck

    Record 14-10 (+7.76 U )
    5/28 : Pitt RL +145, BOL to ALL !!

    * Pitchers up from minors in both WSox/Balt games, also for Boston, and for Detroit today ... any I'm missing?? Any prediction trends there?
    my 2nd choice.. BOL
    Comment
    • 2daBank
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-26-09
      • 88966

      #2802
      Originally posted by LT Profits
      It has nothing to do with the "due" fallacy and more to do with normal regression expected due to Paxson outperforming his peripherals to this point. The dude has a weak command ratio of 6.88 strikeouts vs. 3.52 walks per nine innings, he has benefited from a .252 BABIP and he has only a 4.22 FIP and 4.35 xFIP. His ZiPs has him going 5-6 with a 4.04 ERA the rest of the season.
      i just dont expect the kind of regression out of him that his peripherals suggest, probably away more than home but in that park and when he gets teams that dont hit lefties as well i generally expect him to preform, as in give me a quality start at least. his walk rate is certainly a issue and has been throughout his career but again in such a pitcher friendly park it easier to compensate.

      im not sure bout paxton as i am with a handful of pitchers where i think there a very specific reason they will continue to outperform their peripherals. in his case i tend to think the park and who he faces have a great deal more to do with it than the way he pitches. i do love identifying such pitchers as i believe it gives them added value, wacha being a great example and a guy ive said many times why he will outperform the advanced stats throughout the season. im certainly not ready to say any such thing with mr. paxton, he is much more a case by case basis for me. today id expect him to have a solid outing but again that at home against a team who's lineup i feel is much better suited to face rhp (although tribes numbers vs lefties arnt bad and they certainly better w gomes back)..
      Comment
      • 2daBank
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-26-09
        • 88966

        #2803
        Originally posted by SilverTongueFox
        I was so close to playing Rockies as my DoD yesterday instead pulled trigger on Dbacks and got railroaded by Cards.

        I've been eyeballing the Clev/Sea under all week. I'm not going to let the movement to play mind games with me. I'm sticking to my guns so I'll gladly accept the movement in my favor.
        i rarely let moves sway me, hell half my plays in here are against sizable moves. it certainly surprising to me we gonna be able to get un 7 at ev tho, and while normally im happy to get the extra perceived value in this case i cant help but realize we on the absolute square side of this one. not exactly something i get all that worried about but gotta admit every sucker in the world is prob in agreement here..
        Comment
        • SilverTongueFox
          SBR MVP
          • 11-23-10
          • 2338

          #2804
          Originally posted by 2daBank
          i rarely let moves sway me, hell half my plays in here are against sizable moves. it certainly surprising to me we gonna be able to get un 7 at ev tho, and while normally im happy to get the extra perceived value in this case i cant help but realize we on the absolute square side of this one. not exactly something i get all that worried about but gotta admit every sucker in the world is prob in agreement here..
          Sharp or Square? Lets just cash this beyotch!!!
          Comment
          • 2daBank
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 01-26-09
            • 88966

            #2805
            pads certainly becoming the most attractive option far as a doggie that fits our criteria.

            i just cant bring myself to get behind the shelby miller bandwagon, obviously has cost me thus far but i still see a guy that throws mostly fbs and right or wrong a guy ive never thought of having the mental capability to pitch well when things are not going his way. his season thus far is highlighted by pitching against mostly light hitting cream puff lineups, fish 3x, phils 2x, cincy 2x, his only outing i felt was that impressive was at tor.

            i just dont think this keeps up long term, id love for him to see a couple good hitting lineups and a ump that squeezes him a little bit. sf playing really good ball, he has yet to have a good outing there that i can recall (while heston been much better at home), and bravos just arnt hitting. i should have played sf early as now i dont feel there much of any value but i do think g-men continue their winning ways here..
            Comment
            • 2buckluck
              SBR Wise Guy
              • 04-10-15
              • 608

              #2806
              Originally posted by larry040681
              my 2nd choice.. BOL
              Ride the hot streaks, right (haha, amongst other indicators hopefully)? Cheers, BOL on SF as well!
              Comment
              • TheDoctorr
                SBR Rookie
                • 11-19-14
                • 14

                #2807
                anyone like the angels -1 RL +110?
                Comment
                • robbeduagain
                  SBR MVP
                  • 08-25-12
                  • 1248

                  #2808
                  Originally posted by 2daBank
                  pads certainly becoming the most attractive option far as a doggie that fits our criteria.

                  i just cant bring myself to get behind the shelby miller bandwagon, obviously has cost me thus far but i still see a guy that throws mostly fbs and right or wrong a guy ive never thought of having the mental capability to pitch well when things are not going his way. his season thus far is highlighted by pitching against mostly light hitting cream puff lineups, fish 3x, phils 2x, cincy 2x, his only outing i felt was that impressive was at tor.

                  i just dont think this keeps up long term, id love for him to see a couple good hitting lineups and a ump that squeezes him a little bit. sf playing really good ball, he has yet to have a good outing there that i can recall (while heston been much better at home), and bravos just arnt hitting. i should have played sf early as now i dont feel there much of any value but i do think g-men continue their winning ways here..
                  As near as I can tell, Miller is 15-10 on the road in his career and 2-0 against Sf. While Heston has pitched better at home, his record doesn't show it as he is 1-2 and his last few outings haven't been anything to write home about. Anyway, that was my take on the game and why I took the Braves on the rrl. Good luck to everyone no matter what you choose.
                  Comment
                  • larry040681
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-05-10
                    • 2813

                    #2809
                    Originally posted by 2buckluck

                    Ride the hot streaks, right (haha, amongst other indicators hopefully)? Cheers, BOL on SF as well!
                    you said it!
                    Comment
                    • SilverTongueFox
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-23-10
                      • 2338

                      #2810
                      Originally posted by 2daBank
                      i just dont expect the kind of regression out of him that his peripherals suggest, probably away more than home but in that park and when he gets teams that dont hit lefties as well i generally expect him to preform, as in give me a quality start at least. his walk rate is certainly a issue and has been throughout his career but again in such a pitcher friendly park it easier to compensate.

                      im not sure bout paxton as i am with a handful of pitchers where i think there a very specific reason they will continue to outperform their peripherals. in his case i tend to think the park and who he faces have a great deal more to do with it than the way he pitches. i do love identifying such pitchers as i believe it gives them added value, wacha being a great example and a guy ive said many times why he will outperform the advanced stats throughout the season. im certainly not ready to say any such thing with mr. paxton, he is much more a case by case basis for me. today id expect him to have a solid outing but again that at home against a team who's lineup i feel is much better suited to face rhp (although tribes numbers vs lefties arnt bad and they certainly better w gomes back)..
                      I'm not deep diving into stats on this one. For me it's much simpler.
                      1. Both teams last day off May 11th so 17 straight games.
                      2. Both teams going east to west.
                      3. Kluber has been getting back to strong form. Paxton has been really good at home. Even if we see some regression with Paxton, I agree with banker it's more likely to be road starts. Plus I think Kluber more than capable shutting down this line up if regression shows ugly face tonight. Easily see 2-1; 3-1 type game or even a Kluber shutout

                      BOL boyz
                      Comment
                      • 2daBank
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 01-26-09
                        • 88966

                        #2811
                        Originally posted by robbeduagain
                        As near as I can tell, Miller is 15-10 on the road in his career and 2-0 against Sf. While Heston has pitched better at home, his record doesn't show it as he is 1-2 and his last few outings haven't been anything to write home about. Anyway, that was my take on the game and why I took the Braves on the rrl. Good luck to everyone no matter what you choose.
                        almost positive his wins vs sf came at Busch. scratch that, he did get a W at AT&T in '13 but it was a gm he only lasted 5.1 innings and cards gave him 6 runs of support. records mean little to nothing to me as there so much circumstance behind them, i dont recall shelby being drastically different home/away in his time in stl so not suggesting that, just mentioning i dont recall him having success in this particular park (obviously 2 starts isnt enough to make much a case one way or the other). my biggest gripe w shelby is ive watched him a ton and while he has great life on his fb and has devoloped a effective cutter this is still a kid ive never seen learn any type of secondary pitch he can locate, no matter the quality of your heater it not easy to pitch to the era he currently has when big league hitters know they are gonna see several fb per ab. which i think speaks to the quality (or lack there of) of the lineups he has had the good fortune to face this season. ive been wrong plenty in my life tho, so if im wrong about this fukker it wont be the 1st and most def not the last.

                        far as heston goes he has had the misfortune of having several starts in coors where clearly he doesnt succeed (obviously he isnt the only one), and a place that is good for skewing a guys numbers. at home i see a guy that has had 3 quality starts and 1 bad outing on the season. he facing a lineup that isnt hitting particularly well and hasnt seen him. my biggest worry with him is he hasnt shown the ability to get out lhb at all and braves have several.

                        wish id have looked at this gm sooner but as is i dont think i can do anything but pass. there just not much sense imo to bet a line after a move like that where my win percentage would have to be a great deal higher to justify the play. maybe atl takes on some more money at some point and i can get sf around -125. w/o that happening it a pass for me and i hope im wrong.. gl
                        Comment
                        • red12sox
                          SBR MVP
                          • 11-28-14
                          • 1034

                          #2812
                          Originally posted by red12sox
                          Winner 8-8 +4.34
                          Oakland +111 just hate CC
                          Comment
                          • badgerguy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 03-21-13
                            • 2281

                            #2813
                            05/28 Texas RL -1.5 +190 betonline


                            6-5 +2.97u ytd
                            Comment
                            • 2daBank
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-26-09
                              • 88966

                              #2814
                              Originally Posted by AchillesTG
                              Everywhere I look, shows Sale/Wilson in the 1rst game. I hope so. I played CWS -1.5.


                              Originally posted by 2daBank
                              that what im seeing everywhere as well, cant disagree. not great spot for chisox but i mean it sale vs a minor league pitcher, and at pretty decent odds. think ill join you (which unfortunately means chisox win by 1, lol).
                              i almost feel responsible for this one buddy.. how any of you guys hit rls is beyond me?!?!??!!? never fails for me
                              Comment
                              • Buckandadime
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 04-21-15
                                • 8847

                                #2815
                                5/28
                                Atlanta +124

                                YTD
                                6-6
                                +.16
                                Comment
                                • Artieaa
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 12-18-12
                                  • 953

                                  #2816
                                  Originally posted by Artieaa
                                  A gem by Archer then this punk screwed thing up!! smh
                                  6-20 -12.62 YTD

                                  Padres +116

                                  GLTA!!!
                                  Comment
                                  • AchillesTG
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 07-19-13
                                    • 1648

                                    #2817
                                    Originally posted by 2daBank
                                    Originally Posted by AchillesTG
                                    Everywhere I look, shows Sale/Wilson in the 1rst game. I hope so. I played CWS -1.5.




                                    i almost feel responsible for this one buddy.. how any of you guys hit rls is beyond me?!?!??!!? never fails for me
                                    9th inning BP's just drive me crazy!
                                    Comment
                                    • ctine2020
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 10-29-14
                                      • 117

                                      #2818
                                      Originally posted by ctine2020
                                      DOD KC +134.

                                      Hopefully the Royals can put the brakes on their current three game skid.
                                      Royals burned me again.

                                      YTD 6-2, +5.26u

                                      No play today.
                                      Comment
                                      • mikey87
                                        SBR Hustler
                                        • 04-10-15
                                        • 70

                                        #2819
                                        Why the HELLLLLLL are the Rangers a dog today??? Seriously can someone let me know. Very Curious!
                                        Comment
                                        • robbeduagain
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 08-25-12
                                          • 1248

                                          #2820
                                          Originally posted by 2daBank
                                          almost positive his wins vs sf came at Busch.
                                          scratch that, he did get a W at AT&T in '13 but it was a gm he only lasted 5.1 innings and cards gave him 6 runs of support. records mean little to nothing to me as there so much circumstance behind them, i dont recall shelby being drastically different home/away in his time in stl so not suggesting that, just mentioning i dont recall him having success in this particular park (obviously 2 starts isnt enough to make much a case one way or the other). my biggest gripe w shelby is ive watched him a ton and while he has great life on his fb and has devoloped a effective cutter this is still a kid ive never seen learn any type of secondary pitch he can locate, no matter the quality of your heater it not easy to pitch to the era he currently has when big league hitters know they are gonna see several fb per ab. which i think speaks to the quality (or lack there of) of the lineups he has had the good fortune to face this season. ive been wrong plenty in my life tho, so if im wrong about this fukker it wont be the 1st and most def not the last.

                                          far as heston goes he has had the misfortune of having several starts in coors where clearly he doesnt succeed (obviously he isnt the only one), and a place that is good for skewing a guys numbers. at home i see a guy that has had 3 quality starts and 1 bad outing on the season. he facing a lineup that isnt hitting particularly well and hasnt seen him. my biggest worry with him is he hasnt shown the ability to get out lhb at all and braves have several.

                                          wish id have looked at this gm sooner but as is i dont think i can do anything but pass. there just not much sense imo to bet a line after a move like that where my win percentage would have to be a great deal higher to justify the play. maybe atl takes on some more money at some point and i can get sf around -125. w/o that happening it a pass for me and i hope im wrong.. gl
                                          Appreciate your input and see your points. You know this guy a lot better than me as you're a cards fan. This is why I love this thread. Civil conversation and good info. I'm going to agree to disagree on this one, if I'm wrong I'll know why. Thanks and good luck
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #2821
                                            Originally posted by mikey87
                                            Why the HELLLLLLL are the Rangers a dog today??? Seriously can someone let me know. Very Curious!
                                            Rodriguez is probably a future stud, Martinez is probably the best candidate for regression in all of baseball. But I'd imagine the Boston money has more to do with the Rodriguez hype. I am on Boston myself at -108 for game and -110 5 innings.
                                            Comment
                                            • leetreaper
                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                              • 10-23-10
                                              • 34841

                                              #2822
                                              Pads +117
                                              Comment
                                              • Smutbucket
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 03-14-08
                                                • 3996

                                                #2823
                                                Detroit +115
                                                Comment
                                                • 44 Mag
                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                  • 10-14-13
                                                  • 34490

                                                  #2824
                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                  Rodriguez is probably a future stud, Martinez is probably the best candidate for regression in all of baseball. But I'd imagine the Boston money has more to do with the Rodriguez hype. I am on Boston myself at -108 for game and -110 5 innings.
                                                  So are you being contradictory here??? You posted earlier you don't believe in the "due" theory, yet you think Martinez is due to regress??? He has looked pretty good. Is Kershaw "due" to progress??? LOL. Like he hasn't already.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • mojator
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 04-09-09
                                                    • 136

                                                    #2825
                                                    Originally posted by mojator
                                                    win
                                                    ytd: 1-1 +0.45

                                                    5/27 kc +135
                                                    lost
                                                    ytd: 1-2 -.55

                                                    5/28 tex +114
                                                    Comment
                                                    • 2daBank
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 01-26-09
                                                      • 88966

                                                      #2826
                                                      Originally posted by robbeduagain
                                                      Appreciate your input and see your points. You know this guy a lot better than me as you're a cards fan. This is why I love this thread. Civil conversation and good info. I'm going to agree to disagree on this one, if I'm wrong I'll know why. Thanks and good luck
                                                      he has certainly changed since last pitching here. i really didnt see a ton of difference as he still doesnt have a off-speed pitch he can locate, he actually throwing the cb/change even less this yr. he has changed some tho, he has went from more than 60% of his pitches being 4 seamers to a steady mix of 4 and 2 seamers, prob more significant is his cutter which was prob a pitch he was taught here (kinda a staple of most cards pitchers) but never got it down. appears this yr he does as he throwing it a great deal more (something like 5% last year to around 20% now) and more effectively. the cutter is 7 mph less than the 4/2 seam which prob explains his ability to not have guys just sitting on the heater this yr. i really hadnt noticed this til talking about him with someone earlier. how much a difference and how much has to do with the lineups he has faced is impossible for me to say?? i do think realizing this makes me less quick to wanna fade him even if im still not a huge buyer.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • 2daBank
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 01-26-09
                                                        • 88966

                                                        #2827
                                                        Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                                        So are you being contradictory here??? You posted earlier you don't believe in the "due" theory, yet you think Martinez is due to regress??? He has looked pretty good. Is Kershaw "due" to progress??? LOL. Like he hasn't already.
                                                        ive never thought saying someone was "due to regress" and the due theory were the same, if that makes sense. lol... i think it does as "due to regress" is much more something said about guys that are vastly outperforming their peripherals, while "due theory" more times than not seems to be someone expecting different simply because most teams/players simply dont perform the same consistently. subtle differences maybe? beats me, lol. i take them different anyways.

                                                        in martinez case it is more drastic than most. his xfip and siera are that of a guy with a era closer to 5 than his current era of less than 2. i think there exceptions to every rule and ive never believed in treating anything as the be all end all but writing is on the wall with this guy in several ways.
                                                        Last edited by 2daBank; 05-28-15, 05:33 PM.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • LT Profits
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 10-27-06
                                                          • 90963

                                                          #2828
                                                          Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                                          So are you being contradictory here??? You posted earlier you don't believe in the "due" theory, yet you think Martinez is due to regress??? He has looked pretty good. Is Kershaw "due" to progress??? LOL. Like he hasn't already.
                                                          NO. Big difference between being "due" and expecting natural regression when outperforming your peripheral numbers, which is the case with both Martinez and Paxson tonight, ESPECIALLY Martinez.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #2829
                                                            Originally posted by 2daBank
                                                            ive never thought saying someone was "due to regress" and the due theory were the same, if that makes sense. lol... i think it does as "due to regress" is much more something said about guys that are vastly outperforming their peripherals, while "due theory" more times than not seems to be someone expecting different simply because most teams/players simply dont perform the same consistently. subtle differences maybe? beats me, lol. i take them different anyways.
                                                            Beat me to the punch.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • 44 Mag
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 10-14-13
                                                              • 34490

                                                              #2830
                                                              Originally posted by 2daBank

                                                              ive never thought saying someone was "due to regress" and the due theory were the same, if that makes sense. lol... i think it does as "due to regress" is much more something said about guys that are vastly outperforming their peripherals, while "due theory" more times than not seems to be someone expecting different simply because most teams/players simply dont perform the same consistently. subtle differences maybe? beats me, lol. i take them different anyways.

                                                              in martinez case it is more drastic than most. his xfip and siera are that of a guy with a era closer to 5 than his current era of less than 2. i think there exceptions to every rule and ive never believed in treating anything as the be all end all but writing is on the wall with this guy in several ways.
                                                              Originally posted by LT Profits

                                                              NO. Big difference between being "due" and expecting natural regression when outperforming your peripheral numbers, which is the case with both Martinez and Paxson tonight, ESPECIALLY Martinez.
                                                              Well, I am happy to see you are both against me here. I didn't know I was up against a "duet" . BOL to you both, but your theories don't make any sense to me at this time. What's next, Bucholtz starts throwing no hitters??? Kershaw is done???? Kluber wins the Cy Young??? LOL.
                                                              <br>
                                                              <br>
                                                              Comment
                                                              • 2daBank
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 01-26-09
                                                                • 88966

                                                                #2831
                                                                Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                                                Well, I am happy to see you are both against me here. I didn't know I was up against a "duet" . BOL to you both, but your theories don't make any sense to me at this time. What's next, Bucholtz starts throwing no hitters??? Kershaw is done???? Kluber wins the Cy Young??? LOL.
                                                                <br>
                                                                <br>
                                                                lol. only in terminology my friend (sounds as if my feelings about tex starter may differ as well). like most gms today i didnt pay attention till after the line move so im not on either side. i kinda like the over 5 ff. maybe ov 9 for gm if i can get it w/o any juice. i honestly dont trust 1st time pitchers real often anyways. rangers been raking lhp so i figure between both these pitchers at least 1 outta get hit..gl buddy

                                                                really a shame i had so much time today and this the card we have to work with, sea was closest thing to a doggie i liked but dont love them and they dropped out of range for our purposes.. seems like they begging for us to bet pads at this point and cant decide if i wanna be talked into it? looks like mostly favs i missed the price on and totals i feel ok bout. lol..
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Holdin Aces
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 03-18-10
                                                                  • 2551

                                                                  #2832
                                                                  Not sure of my record, got tired of digging.

                                                                  Today's pick - Braves +121
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • LT Profits
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-27-06
                                                                    • 90963

                                                                    #2833
                                                                    Originally posted by 44 Mag
                                                                    Well, I am happy to see you are both against me here. I didn't know I was up against a "duet" . BOL to you both, but your theories don't make any sense to me at this time. What's next, Bucholtz starts throwing no hitters??? Kershaw is done???? Kluber wins the Cy Young??? LOL.
                                                                    <br>
                                                                    <br>
                                                                    You seem to still be misinterpretting what I am trying to say so hopefully this response I posted in another thread will clear things up:

                                                                    Not "due", it is natural regression expected. BIG Difference.

                                                                    "Due" means a pitcher has been pitching very well and now may be the chance to throw in an inevitable stinker. I do NOT believe in the "Due Theory" because of a pitcher has strong peripherals, there is no reason to suddenly expect a bad outing this time.

                                                                    Natural regression is a pitcher that has been pitching well but has been outperforming his peripheral stats, as generally speaking, mainstream numbers will converge to peripherals. THAT is the case with Martinez, who has awful peripherals.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • mrginandtonic
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 09-11-09
                                                                      • 7731

                                                                      #2834
                                                                      Originally posted by mrginandtonic
                                                                      missed out on the day games.....

                                                                      5/27

                                                                      can lester out duel mad max??......

                                                                      Chi @ +114

                                                                      ytd 17-21 @ +3.30
                                                                      5/28

                                                                      atl @ +121

                                                                      ytd 17-22 +2.30
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • 44 Mag
                                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                        • 10-14-13
                                                                        • 34490

                                                                        #2835
                                                                        Originally posted by Holdin Aces
                                                                        Not sure of my record, got tired of digging.

                                                                        Today's pick - Braves +121
                                                                        Page #78.
                                                                        Comment
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