" Dog of the Day"

[44 Mag]

Considering that MadBum can and will turn it on sooner or later and March/April has traditionally been Kershaw's suck time along October, that's a joke. The Giants aren't as good as they were last season, but they have lots of heart, play as a team and have shitload of motivation after yesterday's clear loss. The Giants are 12-6 with MadBum starting against the Dodgers and 3-1 when the opposing starter was Clayton Kershaw.
Everything above -150 on Kershaw is a joke, really.

In the past Clayton Kershaw got similar lines against guys like Miley, Dan Haren, Homer Bailey or Tim Hudson. What is this shit? It's all because of Clayton's strong home record of 2014, but it seems like noone is looking into the fact that the Dodgers won 13 of 17 of his home starts, but he still lost 4 and 5 wins were decided by 1 run. And he often got a ton of help by his bullpen and lots of run support. Dodgers averaged 5.1 runs with Clayton as a starter in 2014, but 'only' 4.1 in games when other guys started.

Average lines in Clayton's home starts:
- 2014: -220.7 (13-4 W/L)
- 2013: -202.5 (9-9)
- 2012: -189.9 (13-6)
- 2011: -148.2 (13-3)
Where do they want him to go to? And people still back him at the inflated odds (autoplay and what they do with him...lol). Don't get it. There comes a time (or line) where even the best pitcher of the universe is unplayable, no matter how high his winning chances are, simply because the odds are totally overdone.

I will look into it since I haven't done it yet, but I can't imagine a starter in the last few seasons who had nearly those average odds or this kind of 'growth' in his odds like him.

Even if I lose the bet and the result shows a Dodgers win by a clear margin I will never regret backing the Giants at those odds.

Excellent info. But Kershaw is not going to stay @ 4.07 ERA for long. Just saying, not choosing either way. BOL in your wager. Good as any on the board.

[2daBank]

A perfect example of why I don't rate my plays as I play most of them for the same amount.

I am actually having a pretty good year so far at +5.44 YTD, but this thread shows what could happen when I have to choose just one of my plays each day.

It's honestly just dumb luck that I have mostly put the right play in here. I've never been real good at signaling out one from all the plays I like in a particular day.. This thread has got me putting more on the play I use in here so it has kinda helped me, but I certainly don't expect my good fortune to be sustainable at anything close to my current clip. Might as well ride the wave while it last tho

[44 Mag]

It's honestly just dumb luck that I have mostly put the right play in here. I've never been real good at signaling out one from all the plays I like in a particular day.. This thread has got me putting more on the play I use in here so it has kinda helped me, but I certainly don't expect my good fortune to be sustainable at anything close to my current clip. Might as well ride the wave while it last tho

Well if that's "dumb luck" can you send some my way??? LOL.

[2daBank]

Couple quick leans after initially scanning todays games. Pirates, Mets, Royals, Rays and Angels. Gotta think that with Wacha on the bump the Phillies abysmal offense is screaming for a TT Under (i'll wait for 2dabanks input on this one). Also debating on whether MadBum can take down Kershaw in round 2.

Gotta whittle these down throughout the day today and will be back later this afternoon with an official pick.

I havnt had any time w the card yet bro. Passed out when I got home from gm and will be at work till 3ish. Don't even know the total but I'd assume Phillies Tt prob juiced 3 for under? I had pretty good seats and honestly I thought utley was swinging the bat pretty well, he drove a few to the wall on a night the ball wasn't carrying. Other than him didn't seem like anyone was on lackeys avg stuff so yea I doubt they plate many vs wacha. It certainly warmer here today so ball may carry better, I'd like to find a way to be on cards but price is way steep. I'll look more into when I get home..

[2daBank]

Well if that's "dumb luck" can you send some my way??? LOL.

im not generally all that lucky so I'm gonna need to keep what I got going! Seriously tho, most my plays have came down to a couple abs one way or the other, that great when u playing dogs but it just not real likely they continue going my way at this rate..

[posey]

Excellent info. But Kershaw is not going to stay @ 4.07 ERA for long. Just saying, not choosing either way. BOL in your wager. Good as any on the board.

Of course the ERA won't stay there, but when you have 2 elite pitchers on the mound, even if one pitches for the (on general consensus and current WL-record) better team at home, it doesn't justify only 38% winning chance for the dog, especially when the dog's starter has very good numbers against the opposing team.

There are only 4 guys in the current Dodgers lineup (since e.g. Puig is on the DL) which have 'good' numbers against MadBum and 1 of those 4 is Alex Guerrero, who is .500 with 1 HR in 2 (!!!) ABs against MadBum, which is far from being a sample size, so we have to ignore that. This makes Justin Turner (21 AB, .333), Scott van Slyke (16 AB, .313, but 6 Ks) and Juan Uribe (33 AB, .303) the only three Dodgers hitters, who are proven of being able to hit MadBum.

Grandal, Ellis, Ethier, Rollins, A-Gon, Pederson, Kendrick and Crawford combine for 14 hits in 115 ABs against MadBum, this is a AVG of .122.
A-Gon is 4-35 vs MadBum lifetime.

Of course, Kershaw's numbers against the Giants are 'equally good', but this doesn't justify a +160 on MadBum and the Giants.

I said the same thing when the Giants played Kershaw a few weeks ago at home and the Giants won it. Of course there is no guarantee that the Giants will be able to do it again, but this is a must-bet for me.

[RollinDo]

I havnt had any time w the card yet bro. Passed out when I got home from gm and will be at work till 3ish. Don't even know the total but I'd assume Phillies Tt prob juiced 3 for under? I had pretty good seats and honestly I thought utley was swinging the bat pretty well, he drove a few to the wall on a night the ball wasn't carrying. Other than him didn't seem like anyone was on lackeys avg stuff so yea I doubt they plate many vs wacha. It certainly warmer here today so ball may carry better, I'd like to find a way to be on cards but price is way steep. I'll look more into when I get home..

Phils TT (U 3) @ -120 at Sportsbook...-130 Other places

[posey]

You know...

Lohse/MIL is +169 @ Cueto/CIN.
Gonzalez/PHI is +188 @ Wacha/STL.
MadBum/SFG is +160 @ Kershaw/LAD.


What the heck...

[mitch51]

TOR +112


8-7 +3.32u

[44 Mag]

Of course the ERA won't stay there, but when you have 2 elite pitchers on the mound, even if one pitches for the (on general consensus and current WL-record) better team at home, it doesn't justify only 38% winning chance for the dog, especially when the dog's starter has very good numbers against the opposing team.

There are only 4 guys in the current Dodgers lineup (since e.g. Puig is on the DL) which have 'good' numbers against MadBum and 1 of those 4 is Alex Guerrero, who is .500 with 1 HR in 2 (!!!) ABs against MadBum, which is far from being a sample size, so we have to ignore that. This makes Justin Turner (21 AB, .333), Scott van Slyke (16 AB, .313, but 6 Ks) and Juan Uribe (33 AB, .303) the only three Dodgers hitters, who are proven of being able to hit MadBum.

Grandal, Ellis, Ethier, Rollins, A-Gon, Pederson, Kendrick and Crawford combine for 14 hits in 115 ABs against MadBum, this is a AVG of .122.
A-Gon is 4-35 vs MadBum lifetime.

Of course, Kershaw's numbers against the Giants are 'equally good', but this doesn't justify a +160 on MadBum and the Giants.

I said the same thing when the Giants played Kershaw a few weeks ago at home and the Giants won it. Of course there is no guarantee that the Giants will be able to do it again, but this is a must-bet for me.

Brother, I just did some quick math on Kershaw's lifetime stats. I find you are CORRECT. Any bet on Kershaw over -150. you would be losing money over the long haul. Example: his record this far is 99-50. So let's call that 2-1. So he typically goes off at -200. At best you would break even. Now you take last year at 21-3, you would have killed it. But he can't do that every year looking at his record. So I stand corrected my self. As much as I like the guy, this is still business. If someone keeps betting him at more than -150, you will eventually lose. Thanks for the input, and I really like all you guys in this thread.

[posey]

Brother, I just did some quick math on Kershaw's lifetime stats. I find you are CORRECT. Any bet on Kershaw over -150. you would be losing money over the long haul. Example: his record this far is 99-50. So let's call that 2-1. So he typically goes off at -200. At best you would break even. Now you take last year at 21-3, you would have killed it. But he can't do that every year looking at his record. So I stand corrected my self. As much as I like the guy, this is still business. If someone keeps betting him at more than -150, you will eventually lose. Thanks for the input, and I really like all you guys in this thread.

The sentence I highlighted is the most important one. Cheers and BOL to all.

[44 Mag]

The sentence I highlighted is the most important one. Cheers and BOL to all.

AGREED.

[2daBank]

Phils TT (U 3) @ -120 at Sportsbook...-130 Other places

As a rule of thumb I rarely pay over -115 on any total. Prefer to be under -110 when possible., I'll prob just try and find a suitible parlay partner to go with cards..

[2daBank]

i see ya'll been talking sf/lad, ill give ya my very quick 2 cents. the price on lad is fukkin retarded!

i know that wasnt my best breakdown but really dont know what else to say.. odds of them winning cant be as high as line suggest..

[Holdin Aces]

8-3 +7.75

Today's pick - Angels +140

[2daBank]

11-4 +9.64

blow jays+115..

[poirot86]

8-5 +3.53

tor +114

[twestacott]

Royals +122

[44 Mag]

Royals +122

Took them in my regular thread.

[mrginandtonic]

Gonna do favorite RL instead of a dog.

TEX -1.5 +182

YTD = + 3.21

Didn't go well with that favorite RL, gonna stick with just dogs.....

4/28

LAA + 134

YTD 5-5 = 2.21

[44 Mag]

Didn't go well with that favorite RL, gonna stick with just dogs.....

4/28

LAA + 134

YTD 5-5 = 2.21

Same for me brother: LAA.

[Jerm3085]

0-1
-1.0
4/28: Brewers +180

[girlscoutcookies]

2 - 1 +1.48u

twins +127

[jameski999]

Blowjays suck so much dick

[2daBank]

Blowjays suck so much dick

true but it still really early and so does the gas can headcase pitching for the sox.. honestly that was about the weakest 4 run inning you could have, most those hits were bloopers and seeing eye dribblers that found holes..wouldnt stress too much early in this gm, prob be a high scoring affair..

[2daBank]

true but it still really early and so does the gas can headcase pitching for the sox.. honestly that was about the weakest 4 run inning you could have, most those hits were bloopers and seeing eye dribblers that found holes..wouldnt stress too much early in this gm, prob be a high scoring affair..

And just like that we all tied up

[bruenc]

7-2 +6.61

laa +125

[jameski999]

true but it still really early and so does the gas can headcase pitching for the sox.. honestly that was about the weakest 4 run inning you could have, most those hits were bloopers and seeing eye dribblers that found holes..wouldnt stress too much early in this gm, prob be a high scoring affair..

I know but got a quick 2 outs then decides to walk the 9 hitter and 4 straight singles.

[2daBank]

I know but got a quick 2 outs then decides to walk the 9 hitter and 4 straight singles.

we in ok shape now. hopefully hutch can give us 3 or so more innings. dont really wanna see a ton of jays pen.

[2daBank]

11-4 +9.64

blow jays+115..

Cash that shit. Get it while the getting good I always say

12-4 +10.79

[pacocn]

Cash Toronto

[incognitoh]

4/28 - Houston +150 - I don't understand this line at all; I must be totally missing something, which means I should probably pass but didn't.

YTD: 6-5 2.40

4/29: Atlanta +120

Will have to update record tomorrow, don't have results for today's play yet and won't be able to post until tomorrow night most likely, which is always why I have to take the early lines unless I am working from home...

[2daBank]

^ u looking pretty good for the W bro.. Kc and hou lines been quite strange of late. Books can't be thrilled with way kc bitch slapping them as dogs. Dunno if everyone has caught on as much w hou yet but I'm sure ppl figuring it out..

[2buckluck]

Been following this awesome thread for a week or 2 (thanks Mag) and would love to jump in ...
Royals +125 (last night, think it's come down some...)

Thanks for the warm welcome!
1-0, +1.25 units

[2daBank]

Thanks for the warm welcome!
1-0, +1.25 units

Kc been such a awesome dog! Nice start man..