Mitch you are the best I mention two starts ago Santiago watch him.
-
Comment -
-
posey, your last post was right on the money. Again. There is too information available now. I never thought there could be too much, but there might be now. And then you have to figure what weight the information has. I don't care if a team has won two Wednesday nights in a row. But trends in the thousands mean something.
posey, we are hereby awarding you the "contributor of the month award" for the month of April.
Comment -
Hey Mitch nice thread you have here, I have been out from sbr for almost 2 years , glad to see you and some other guys still here..... Keep it up mate, cheers!!!Comment -
With both pitchers not at their A game im puttin a small bet on the Giants/LAD over 5.5. BOL to me and anyone else on it.Last edited by Trusty *A*; 04-22-15, 08:46 PM.Comment -
Ditto that. I also never envisioned a place where "TOO MUCH INFORMATION!!" was where we'd be but that was when I was on that Other Planet. The one without internet, cell phones but that had Stardust Sportsbook which was literally like something out of a movie...the characters up in there daily lol, the whole Vegas/Laughlin life in the 1980's.posey, your last post was right on the money. Again. There is too information available now. I never thought there could be too much, but there might be now. And then you have to figure what weight the information has. I don't care if a team has won two Wednesday nights in a row. But trends in the thousands mean something.
posey, we are hereby awarding you the "contributor of the month award" for the month of April.
Its fixin to get even "worse" though rflmao: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...ardinals-game/
posey....long post totally worth the space brother if even ONE is detoured from AutoBet.
That which makes a pitcher an autobet is also what makes books set -200 or even worse lol line on such pitcher and for every one of those we lose we must win 2 or more (at EV odds) to just get even.
Might add to this when I'm not on the run....police chopper above hellahard to elude they fixin to unleash the hounds, might have to sacrifice this cool purple bowling ball to get away which would suck cuz its a really cool purple....
fortunately Ali came in on SFG so I get to take them in that account, another perk of having separate acct. just for this here + unders when they begin to flow....I get to board the MadBum train so as not to miss it while relieving the burden of finding the Value side for my Main acct.
peace....holy shyt there shooting at me now.
just rubber bullets though lol.
Blessed to not have been born Black at this particular moment I guess but overall not cuz the price was totally less Groove, infinitely less Kool + completely can't pull off wearing neon Green Business Suit...can't jump worth shyt and can't dance but still do and look like an utter idot as result, Male equivalent of Elaine Benes.
Frieden.
Last edited by buddha; 04-22-15, 09:09 PM.Comment -
A friend of mine turned me onto this thread. I've been following your plays for a few weeks. I really like the strategy and results. Good luck to us.Comment -
Fortuitously we're presented with a perfect Illustration this very day!!!!
DET TIGERS -205( A WARREN -R / D PRICE -L ) Score: NY YANKEES(13) - DET TIGERS(4) As I've said, concerning this thread and last year's, "Nuggets" of wisdom to mold better bettors existed there in LY's thread and are cropping up in this one. No one's trying to sound smarter than others but instead just help each other out, make each other sharper. This is why I came back for this year's thread, because in LY's I gained wisdom re: MLB betting do's and don'ts & especially from the Umpire Unders which ya'll should look forward to cuz those can be fun and its fascinating how gets revealed the "quirks" to how some umps tend to call games....FAV on the road, totals under 6.5...strike zone stuffs....much to look forward to in this thread, here so early in the year already alot of great stuff has come.Comment -
Well...tonight is not going well.
Texas +1 is costing me and Dodger bats are stagnant.
2 juice plays that I was really confident in.
-135 and -140 respectively.
Should have just played my Under in Anaheim.
Still going to bet Kershaw every game at -1 or ML because it will turn out to be a nice profit - as it would have been last year.
Maybe Dodgers will get to MadBum or the pen.Comment -
I hate betting sub - par teams for dogs...that's what you guys are good at...guess I'm not.
Last time I bet Rangers for a while.Comment -
Update:
ALI DOGS
1-2 -.70u
20-16 +7.99u 55.56%
HAYDUKES
0-1 -.50u
17-17 +1.14u 50.0%
Good night
back deck time
Ali & Hayduke
Comment -
I don't want to sound harsh but HOW do you know what will happen over the course of the whole season in advance? Didn't you see the table I posted on the page before? Profit in season A doesn't mean profit in season B. There are way too much variables which influence the game.
And now the Dodgers pen lost it and Kershaw was even down 0-2 when he was pulled.
When you exclude 2014, backing Kershaw in every game since 2010 you would have made a ROI of only +1.6. Including 2014 the overall ROI is +5.7. That's far from a guarantee IMO. 2014 was a big positive aberration. One 'bad' or 'unlucky' year and you are down.
Remember: there are tons of games in which you have to go with a lot of juice.
Thanks to all the others. Only here to help.
Last edited by posey; 04-23-15, 02:34 AM.Comment -
I don't appreciate POSEY getting rewarded "contributor of the month award" (COTM) for the month of April when theres still a week to go in April and on top of that posey getting this guy too
so here....
I will overtake him with a surprise hail mary post...65 yard pass through the air that glances off a goalpost and a camera then off a Tuba Player to land directly in mitch's arms in the corner of the endzone...
for a dramatic last second win of April COTM :
(I can't overtake posey with 'cappin' knowledge so I'll use common sense suggestions, british (Monty Python) style self effacement & stunning scandalous admissions of bad behavior on my part which everyone loves...and really gets ratings)
posey - LAD/SFG played out as you described when you alluded to being able to find good reasons to back either side.
And specifically where regards you breakdown of Clayton K/MadBum.
The score 2-2 when they are replaced, 10 K's vs. 9....onto the bullpen to decide this one which is what came to pass.
Ali's filters produced a PLAY ON SFG, your database produced Padres as a dog for 2 days in a row.
Just goes to illustrate that we each use what we've discovered and feel is gonna best produce winners.
Use what we know & trust to make the most +EV Plays possible, not all will win...indeed a good % of them won't. Such is Life within a Physical Universe where balls in motion = chaos and where there is chaos there will be outcomes other than what "should have happened"
If we even knew that anyways....had gauged accurately the most likely outcome...per the info we had on hand.
As posey says with the Autobet: "How Can We Know??"
...when (if) a given pitcher is an AutoBet and for my deal: if we've done the best possible to accurately predict an outcome?
We can't KNOW!! So don't stress. Only bet what you can afford to lose. Do everything possible to not allow the losses to bother you and HAVE FUN with this. "Professional Sports Handicappers" might disagree with my take but most of us ain't that. We're just trying to add excitement to games and find positive feeling from going + Units.
Bet all of the Plays Ali kicks out cuz over time historically they've proved to produce +EV results, use Haydukes plays if you don't mind a less diciplined, less filtered approach to selecting sides. Pay close attention to the Umpire Unders info when that comes to be here and all input really such as posey's...
Use what feels like its gonna work for you and don't get aggravated when losses come because they will so to let these get in your head is pointless like getting pissed in traffic or in a line at the supermarket.
Its SO IMPORTANT that your Sports Betting not include getting royally pissed, depressed and majorly upset over losses.
Lastly, to clarify: when I spoke of having a separate account to play Dog Machine (Ali) & Dogcatcher (Haydukes) plays, separate from my "Main" account that was poor wording cuz "Main" account too much implies thats the important one and the separate account established due to a lack of confidence in Ali/HD plays.
Nothing could be farther from the truth.
"Main" account just meant the one I've had forever, the account I've always used for my own leans.
Till this MLB season it was mainly a Football betting account, exceptions being the big sporting events...Golf Majors, NCAAB Tourney...Triple Crown races...NBA/NHL/MLB Playoffs.
I never really bet Baseball inSeason prior to this year . This thread from LY got me going on that cuz I especially liked the Umpire Unders.
That Psychology stuff and the effect a Home Plate ump can have (and has historically had) on games with certain totals and other scenarios...it appeals to me.
posey's thing is more math based. I can't stand math. I think itrs the worse thing ever invented. Cuz numbers are so absolute where with words.....theres wiggle room.
****find the style of 'capping that appeals to your brain even if thats simply tailing another capper but whatever you don't DON'T STRESS or get mad about losses"
Not being a longtime MLB Bettor you woin't hear a peep outta me on 'capping tools, I'm just here to learn as others are.
You will hear from me occasionally on "The Mind Stuff" of betting. Right now thats to encourage you do to everything in your power to not allow losses to bring you down. This is imperative because there are too many stressful things in your life already. To let a lost bet add stress to that is stupid. And it CAN be avoided.
I do it by just assuming I am going to lose every bet I place. Of course i know thats not gonna actually happen, SUBCONSCIOUSLY (for me anyways) I know this. I went through all the bullshiite, getting pissed, obsessing about lost plays, letting them change my mood and erase my enjoyment of life but just got tired of it.
So now as I place a bet I don't care at all if it wins or loses. If an expectation manages to sneak into my mind it is made to be an expectation that the play is gonna lose.
Should the above have left me enraged?04/22/2015
06:27 PM[] PARLAY (6 TEAMS) ( Risking: 10.00 - To Win: 658.42 ) 04/22/2015 @ 07:45 PM NBA [731] SAN ANTONIO +2-110 (Playoffs - Game #2) Score: SAN ANTONIO(111) - LA CLIPPERS(107) WIN 04/22/2015 @ 07:45 PM NBA [731] TOTAL o207-110 (SAN ANTONIO vrs LA CLIPPERS) (Playoffs - Game #2) Score: SAN ANTONIO(111) - LA CLIPPERS(107) WIN 04/22/2015 @ 06:55 PM NHL [69] ST. LOUIS +125 (Playoffs - Game #4) Score: ST. LOUIS(6) - MINNESOTA(1) WIN 04/22/2015 @ 06:55 PM NHL [72] WINNIPEG -125 (Playoffs - Game #4) Score: ANAHEIM(5) - WINNIPEG(2) LOSE 04/22/2015 @ 07:25 PM MLB [914] SFO GIANTS +133( ACTION ) Score: LA DODGERS(2) - SFO GIANTS(3) WIN 04/22/2015 @ 06:50 PM MLB [930] ARI D'BACKS -106( ACTION ) Score: TEX RANGERS(5) - ARI D'BACKS(8)
WIN ONLINE
04/21/2015
11:21 PM[ ] ROUND ROBIN (1P-6T) ( Risking: 20.00 - To Win: 369.50 ) 04/22/2015 @ 04:15 PM NBA [728] ATLANTA -500 (Playoffs - Game #2) Score: BROOKLYN(91) - ATLANTA(96) WIN 04/22/2015 @ 05:15 PM NBA [730] MEMPHIS -260 (Playoffs - Game #2) Score: PORTLAND(82) - MEMPHIS(97) WIN 04/22/2015 @ 06:55 PM NHL [69] ST. LOUIS +115 (Playoffs - Game #4) Score: ST. LOUIS(6) - MINNESOTA(1) WIN 04/22/2015 @ 06:55 PM NHL [71] ANAHEIM +105 (Playoffs - Game #4) Score: ANAHEIM(5) - WINNIPEG(2) WIN 04/22/2015 @ 04:15 PM MLB [920] DET TIGERS -205( ACTION ) Score: NY YANKEES(13) - DET TIGERS(4) LOSE 04/22/2015 @ 06:50 PM MLB [930] ARI D'BACKS -127( ACTION ) Score: TEX RANGERS(5) - ARI D'BACKS(8) WIN
In the past it would have...but eventually I realized to get enraged & depressed is pointless. Its $$$ I did not have and that the odds were TREMENDOUS against me winning.
My view is that it was fun while it lasted.
Winnipeg Jets did battle....at moments within the game.
San Antone cashing the ticket by going to OT with LAC to get the OVER would have been amazing seal of the deal...had it happened....were Winnipeg not eventually OVERWHELMED by Anaheim.
Jumping off Anahiem Ducks for the 2nd parlay anyways....I didn't deserve to win cuz I 2nd guessed myself....just cuz I felt Joe Pub too much on Ducks Late...I was on them at the time of the first bet.....
I just laugh about how inefficient I can be.
I do my best at the moment and then LET IT GO. What will be will be.
Including DET TIGERS -205( D. Price ) cuz while I knew better than to do the very thing that posey warned about pretty near the exact time I was making that second play I hadn't read his warning prior and they are PARLAYS...gotta expect to lose even one that don't include STLBLUES as a +125 Dog and San Antonio/LAC going to OT putting up 30 in OT to cover the total..
I shoulda lost that one there anyways, shouldn't have even come so close.
My last minute thought was Winnepeg Jets would want to play for pride, battle with everything to not get swept at Home + noise comin in from fadable hockey "cappers", doofuses callin' Ducks a "lock."...
If AutoBet ChalkMonster David Price doesn't give up 8 Earned Runs in 2 1/3
I have what is tantamount to a "Hedge" with both sides of ANA/WPG...looking brilliant (or some degree of that) as is the goal of my "Main" sportsbook account lol.
I post the parlays to illustrate what posey said and that I knew.....FORGET "AutoBets" on stud pitchers made w/o research made just cuz its what you think is gonna happen and...
....sincerely.....don't let this stuff get you down. Simply refuse to allow it to invade your brain with negativity. Its imperative that you do this.
I know better than to play parlays. Its tiny amounts of money though and I do actually hit them on occasion. I'm a square. I'm getting less square I'm much less square than I was but am still decidedly square.
All this just to illustrate that if I can manage to avoid letting the above $1000 swing depress me and make me enraged so can you cuz there is totally nothing special about me in this regard.
Control Your Emotions, do not let them control you. Its a journey to get to that place but you can make huge steps to there right this moment by deciding "Phuket. I will NOT cash this play in my head before it is done. In fact I am gonna do the oposite and consider it a Loser already"
...and then just enjoy the damn games...
which is most of the whole point of doing this fer chrissakes..
All that being said: Thanks posey for taking the time to post what you did and mitch & crew for the additional nuggets of wisdom.
We ARE gonna have the most + season yet up in here.
Now get that damn COTM Crown out of that USPS International Mail box addressed to GERMANY and get it packed up in one coming to me.
Or just put a new label over the posey label and I'll pop up to Winnepeg to recieve the box so you can still use the International Box (I'm trying to make your life easy mitch) which I need to go up there anyways to have a "discussion" with the Jets.
Wherein the team raises the $668.42 they cost me.
No. Just Joking about that
....Meant as an illustration of what you're NOT supposed to do!!!
<center>CHILLAX.</center>
<center></center>
Last edited by buddha; 04-23-15, 04:40 AM.Comment -
Sound Harsh Dude. You're a Saint for taking the time to share with totally no gain on your part knowledge obained over the path you've walked through the School Of Hard Knocks...I don't want to sound harsh but HOW do you know what will happen over the course of the whole season in advance? Didn't you see the table I posted on the page before? Profit in season A doesn't mean profit in season B. There are way too much variables which influence the game.
And now the Dodgers pen lost it and Kershaw was even down 0-2 when he was pulled.
When you exclude 2014, backing Kershaw in every game since 2010 you would have made a ROI of only +1.6. Including 2014 the overall ROI is +5.7. That's far from a guarantee IMO. 2014 was a big positive aberration. One 'bad' or 'unlucky' year and you are down.
Remember: there are tons of games in which you have to go with a lot of juice.
Thanks to all the others. Only here to help.
to try and help us avoid making bad -EV bets.
If you don't take a Harsh Approach at some times the input will simply not be taken as seriously as it should.
Rollin is just off an AutoBet on Clayton K that has left him totally pissed off and depressed and what does he tell us?
That he is gonna AutoBet Clayton K "every time" (because he feels it would have worked well last year...despite you having posted what you did before) and he is even gonna strongly consider laying -1 with Clayton...
You broke it down before. I believe you also said CK wasn't performing true to form thus far...Clayton struck out 9 last night but left with 4.07 era and down.
Be Harsh posey. Rollins may understand that you are merely trying to suggest to him that he not make -EV Bets...
...such as....in the case of others "near to me" AutoBets on DET/David Price
....Vin Scully told me the next time Clayton K pitches against madBum again.
This Monday I think he said.
One would assume in LA.
Rollins will be OK with you being harsh posey
unless his strategy is just to throw $hyt at Clayton till some sticks.
Had people not been harsh with me posey I'd likely be dead by now...had I listened (respected) those who tried to help me but were not harsh I'd have been infinitely better off but I didn't.
Because their message did not resonate with me.
P.S. Oops. That video posted in post above was not the one desired. Visualize that this video is there instead:
P.S.S. Just begin at 37:42 of the following vid, yes its partway through a song (nearer the end of a song) but is followed by the song most will like the most. The rest is fairly cool too though. RELAXING which is the whole goal of my incessant babble...to get you guys to relax, kickback and make your betting experience as stress-free as possible....
while Ali, HayD, posey and others slang the winnahz.
<center></center>
Last edited by buddha; 04-23-15, 06:08 AM.Comment -
Would love to keep all the bs out of this thread and just use it for their picks. Scrolling through all these posts to find the plays is painful...Comment -
I understand what your saying but some appreciate all the insight people give. Knowledge is power. But i get that some just want to find the plays...ill admit ive had this thought as well. But if you want to just get the picks I would recommend clicking on "posts" under Mitch51's name to see only his posts. hope this helpsComment -
I really don't understand the problem. 'Painful'? You only have to scroll through 1-2 pages at the most and if you don't like to spend 20 seconds per day then you can click on Mitch's name and search for his posts. Will never understand something like this when people, who never contribute themselves, make complaints.Comment -
Passing Pain lol. The year is just starting, discussion is new, these pages will fall into the passed and the thread will be as it should, as you desire. This was like Haley's Comet these last couple pages. neither posey nor myself have the time to have this be an oft occurring phenom.
Comment -
He meant me and not you, he just wanted to lash out. I provoke this reaction in some people cuz I am Irish...we use 42 words to say what others say in 24 lol....if even they'd try to say it at all.
Which likely he already knew p.
Other Irish people love it though lol.
Such is Life. Haters gonna Hate.Comment -
Just a heads up...
No play on early game at 12:35pm ET
CUBS/PITS
Be back soon
AliComment -
I'll be taking Cubs/Pirates u7.5 if anyone else wants to hop onComment -
Thanks to Mitch, Ali (followed last year's umpire streakers) & all of the contributors... Great thread.Comment -
Busy morning here and hello all
04.23.15 ALI DOGS
8pm ET
973 KC +134 1.00/1.34
HAYDUKES
None
Umpires Streaking
1:40pm ET
958 MIL/CIN - Hernandez - UN8 -115 .50/.43
7:10pm ET
972 TB/BOS - Hoye - UN7.5 -115 .50/.43
GLTA
Another post to follow from Mitch/Hayduke for comments on a few games.
Ali & Hayduke
Comment -
WARNING: It's too early for UMPIRES STREAKING, so be careful with these until the middle of May. Just pass, or sprinkle just a dab on these. Also, we took the Padres -113 but it doesn't go into the thread because it's a fave. It was too good to pass up.
Comment -
Haydukes was out all night again, wasn't he?
These youngsters.
Thanks for all ya'll do.
Comment -
Hey Mitch,
Would it be alright if you can post the streak win % of the umpire (in the last how many games) in your post like you did last season? In case some of us may use different % cut-offs (ie: 60 vs 70%) for making the wager, determining unit amount, etc , hence my reason for asking.
Hopefully you're cool with the request but if not, would you mind sharing the site you use for determining the streaks for your umpires?
Thanks in advance brother. Love the thread.Comment -
To buddha: You are spot on about betting, especially the dogs. You CANNOT let losing games negatively impact you. Betting dogs means you lose half your bets. That simple. When we lose a bet we immediately put it behind us, no muss no fuss. We immediately start capping for the following day. You have to see the big picture betting dogs. If we lose six in a row, we can't let it affect us. We know we'll get that money back.
Buddha, also you are right regarding "commenter of the month". Duly noted. Your comments are greatly appreciated, and you are hereby rewarded "commenter for April", which you will share with Posey. Both you guys KICK ASS!
buddha, you also get this.. ..You are AWESOME!
HaydukeLast edited by mitch51; 04-23-15, 12:56 PM.Comment -
To Cordoba 25: Hey, no problem. We remember you from last year, welcome back.
Reds-Brewers under 8: Hernandez has been under the last five of six games.
Red Sox-Rays under 7.5: Hoye has been under the last six of seven games.Comment -
Much appreciated Mitch!
One last question. According to stat fox umpire report, Hernandez and Hoye have only umped 2 and 3 games this yr respectivley. So I'm assuming you're including last years numbers for these streaks. But I could have sworn earlier in this thread you said previous years' numbers weren't stable for determining plays for a current yr. Curious as to why you may have changed your mind on this. Perhaps you were tracking them and they were hitting after all?Comment -
Cordoba25, you are exactly right. It's way too early to bet these UMPIRES STREAKING. The streaks go back into the end of last year. Very little info on umps, it won't be mid May until we have enough info. We use umpire stats, but we also use trends and a ton of other stats to cap these. These two games were capped so I took them for a half unit. I'm just trying to shake the rust off a little. DO NOT BET YOUR RETIREMENT FUND ON THESE!
Comment -
Repost of today's games for anyone late coming to the thread.
Ali
Comment -
Its here. For all to read and take to heart. Just like the gems that were in LY's thread are still there.
The post taking up half the damn page was just making the proposal of not letting losses kill you as much like the long excruciating journey of pain and misery it's been to realize that.
...letting losses rob you of Joy is stupid and unnecessary.
There is a "free-ing" when you finally actually truly achieve not giving a phuc. When you make the best value play you can and just Let It Be.
The weirdest thing is it makes you a better capper. This I know from football cuz like I said...I mess with InSeason baseball only as of this year but this applies to 'capping in general.
Its a BIZARRE phenomenon, and its totally counter-intuitive. The Human Brain would "think" that if you get really really pissed off at a loss, let it make you really really mad you'd 'cap sharper the next game but somehow people who have managed to achieve not giving a fukk have a better winning % than those who let losses devestate them.
...I don't know why, maybe posey could say cuz Germans understand Human Psychology (and pretty much everything else lol). The Human Brain is vast and amazing.
This stuff, this post this sharing of experience in General by posey and me is not meant of course for BIGTEX5 and others like him who are already advanced or, like, in a really big hurry but its meant for those who want to get sharper and get free.
tl;dr: laughing at your losses makes you win more. Who'd've figured?
Luv ya HayDee.
Last edited by buddha; 04-23-15, 02:30 PM.Comment
