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  • eddiemoney76
    SBR High Roller
    • 08-24-14
    • 128

    #176
    Damn Gaze 10 units Oakland? What makes you feel this one so much with Hammel pitching?
    Comment
    • MawHaw
      SBR Rookie
      • 01-16-14
      • 45

      #177
      Gaze has screwd the pooch tonight...
      you'll get it back tomorrow big guy!
      Comment
      • MawHaw
        SBR Rookie
        • 01-16-14
        • 45

        #178
        Leave off that Oakland play and the night would be tolerable.
        Comment
        • keel44
          SBR MVP
          • 08-01-09
          • 3363

          #179
          You see that is the problem with people and these crazy unit spreads. 3 here ... 6 there ..... a couple of 2's and occasionally a 10 unit bet. I get it, your more "confident" in the higher unit wagers. Maybe just bet on the most '"confident" games then. You will see that your "confidence" means nothing. You cannot pinpoint where your wins will come from. I guess it is just me, but I actually believe more in money management.
          Comment
          • Gaze73
            SBR MVP
            • 01-27-14
            • 3291

            #180
            -7.02 =53,83

            @Keel, I still have 253 units(well 294 actually, I did bet for 2 weeks before posting here again), so losing 7 means nothing, although this night shoud've been +11 units.
            Oakland failed against atrocious Astros, but Hammel was not the problem. They were leading in 5th, and have one of the best bullpen in the league against the absolute worst, yet they scored nothing past 5th and Astros scored 3 runs in the 8th. In-play odds must've been like -600 at one point, but they blew it. You know like in poker, pocket Aces can lose to pocket deuces, happens 18% of the time.
            Last edited by Gaze73; 08-27-14, 03:59 AM.
            Comment
            • keel44
              SBR MVP
              • 08-01-09
              • 3363

              #181
              I know where your at. That is not my point. I am just saying the Oakland game should not have been worth that much more than the other picks. Keep them all the same or just bet on the big ones.
              Comment
              • Gaze73
                SBR MVP
                • 01-27-14
                • 3291

                #182
                I don't know of any serious bettor who bets the same each game. Say over a season, there are(random numbers) 150 5% ROI picks, 75 8% ROI picks, and 30 15% ROI picks. Should I bet the same on all games, or just take the 30 high confidence picks a season? Doing either of those things would be leaving value on the table.

                You cannot pinpoint where your wins will come from
                Surely you can't be as confident betting +240 dogs as taking vastly superior teams @-130.
                Comment
                • Gaze73
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-27-14
                  • 3291

                  #183
                  Washington Nationals -155 5u
                  Baltimore Orioles -111 2u
                  Oakland Athletics -166 5u
                  Cleveland Indians -182 10u
                  Dodgers + Giants parlay, 5u to win 5.85
                  Comment
                  • eddiemoney76
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 08-24-14
                    • 128

                    #184
                    Like your plays Gaze. Just hope Kluber rebounds. I called for White Sox upset last night. They lost in extra innings for second straight game and are either depressed or pissed off about it. This is why this game is a no action for me. Called for upset last night, don't want it to be tonight with the juice on Cleveland.
                    Comment
                    • Gaze73
                      SBR MVP
                      • 01-27-14
                      • 3291

                      #185
                      White Sox are as bad as Red Sox right now, when a team loses 7 in a row, something is wrong and fade is the play. Cleveland won yesterday even with a bad pitcher, so today should be easy. Expecting a 5-2 game.
                      Comment
                      • eddiemoney76
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 08-24-14
                        • 128

                        #186
                        Originally posted by Gaze73
                        White Sox are as bad as Red Sox right now, when a team loses 7 in a row, something is wrong and fade is the play. Cleveland won yesterday even with a bad pitcher, so today should be easy. Expecting a 5-2 game.
                        My feeling was right unfortunately. Why I no played a stud like Kluber. All streaks always come to an end and always happen at the worst time when you least expect it. I've been fakked over in past so learned. I'm sure you'll adjust in future. You know your stuff
                        Last edited by eddiemoney76; 08-28-14, 01:06 AM.
                        Comment
                        • Gaze73
                          SBR MVP
                          • 01-27-14
                          • 3291

                          #187
                          You dodged a bullet there. I shoulda just bet the under. 2 big losses in a row are unacceptable. There were a few conflicting signals which I ignored, so now I'm gonna be more selective about 10u bombs. It happens only a few times a month, but sometimes there is a winner which is as clear as day with no conflicting signals or opinions on the match. Those games make me want to bet 20 units on them, but I try to keep it at 10. The last one of those was on August 13th where I bet 12u on Nats vs Mets who won 7-1. I wish there were more games like that, but selecting picks is so complex that there's almost always someone with reasons for "no bet" or for taking the opposite selection of what you like.

                          -8,14=45,69
                          Comment
                          • eddiemoney76
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 08-24-14
                            • 128

                            #188
                            Day was bullshit to be honest Lol. Many cy young pitchers or candidates all go down same exact day. Price Fister Klubber Wainwright... I laugh it off. No choice. But it makes you wonder sometimes if pitchers bet 50 unit bombs against themselves for + 150 returns Lol....
                            Last edited by eddiemoney76; 08-28-14, 05:20 AM.
                            Comment
                            • Gaze73
                              SBR MVP
                              • 01-27-14
                              • 3291

                              #189
                              Oakland Athletics -101 5u
                              Chicago Cubs -112 3u
                              Texas Rangers +129 3.5u

                              Not really liking any of this, but oh well, we'll see how it goes.
                              Comment
                              • Gaze73
                                SBR MVP
                                • 01-27-14
                                • 3291

                                #190
                                Anyone seen Two for the Money with Al Pacino and McConaughey? I just finished watching it, and now I feel like the main character with the highs and lows. Another play going down, Arrieta somehow allowed 6 runs in 4 fukking innings.
                                Comment
                                • Gaze73
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 01-27-14
                                  • 3291

                                  #191
                                  Giants over 7 -115 2u
                                  Comment
                                  • Gaze73
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-27-14
                                    • 3291

                                    #192
                                    -13,5=32,19 why do I bet these shitty games, might as well flip a coin.
                                    Comment
                                    • Gaze73
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-27-14
                                      • 3291

                                      #193
                                      Kansas City Royals -146 5u
                                      Washington Nationals +1½ -160 2u

                                      Parlay 2u to win 2.5:
                                      Los Angeles Dodgers +1½ -225 for Game
                                      Baltimore Orioles -179
                                      Comment
                                      • Gaze73
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 01-27-14
                                        • 3291

                                        #194
                                        And Philadelphia Phillies +1½ -180 10u
                                        St. Louis Cardinals -141 2.5u
                                        Comment
                                        • Gaze73
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 01-27-14
                                          • 3291

                                          #195
                                          -13,75=18,44 I don't fukkin believe it, I hope everyone abandoned the ship already. This is the worst fukking week ever. I don't know if I should just switch to NCAAF already because these results don't make any sense.
                                          Comment
                                          • keel44
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 08-01-09
                                            • 3363

                                            #196
                                            Every capper goes through ups and downs. Stay the course, but watch your unit size.
                                            Comment
                                            • Gaze73
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-27-14
                                              • 3291

                                              #197
                                              I'm a high risk / high reward kind of guy, trying to find the perfect balance between gambling and investing. Never expected such a shit run though. When a team goes W-L-W in a series, I always seem to have big money on the one loss. E.g. most recently I took a nice dog Texas, they lost 2-4, and then won 13:6 the next day like some big shots. I'd also take them today but would surely catch them losing again, so I'll go with the over. Or Cleveland vs White Sox, they lost the one game in the series where they had by far the biggest pitching edge.

                                              New York Mets -157 5u
                                              Baltimore Orioles -166 5u
                                              Texas Rangers/Houston Astros over 8½ -105 2u
                                              Comment
                                              • Gaze73
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-27-14
                                                • 3291

                                                #198
                                                See this fukkin shit again? I take Phillies +1.5 for 10 units, they lose 4:1, I take Mets the next day, and fukking Phillies win 7:2 like no fukking problem.

                                                +0.63=19,07
                                                Comment
                                                • keel44
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-01-09
                                                  • 3363

                                                  #199
                                                  I look at your picks overall and I see a lot of favorites. They go through ups and downs too.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Gaze73
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-27-14
                                                    • 3291

                                                    #200
                                                    Baltimore Orioles -163 5u
                                                    Detroit Tigers -104 3u
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Gaze73
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 01-27-14
                                                      • 3291

                                                      #201
                                                      Twins Orioles over 8 -110 3u
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Gaze73
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-27-14
                                                        • 3291

                                                        #202
                                                        Dodgers -162 2.5u
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Gaze73
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 01-27-14
                                                          • 3291

                                                          #203
                                                          LIVE, adding 7.5u on Dodgers @ -170, now 1:1, top of the 2nd.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Merkel
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 10-30-13
                                                            • 1473

                                                            #204
                                                            What is this shit Gaze? You pm me bragging about the "mad money" you're making, I take time out of my day to check on your sorry ass, and you go from 45 to 19 units on 1 page? All these months farther along and you still haven't learned a thing?
                                                            Don't waste my time ok. Amateur.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Gaze73
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 01-27-14
                                                              • 3291

                                                              #205
                                                              I was up 80, not my fault you come 2 weeks later. And don't act like you never had a shit week. Hey, there's Beat the Prick contest now, why don't you show us all how pro you are? I'll be there.

                                                              +8,65=27,72.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Gaze73
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-27-14
                                                                • 3291

                                                                #206
                                                                Texas Rangers +1½ -125 5u
                                                                Washington Nationals -115 3u
                                                                Baltimore Orioles -128 5.5u
                                                                San Francisco Giants -135 5u
                                                                New York Mets/Miami Marlins under 7 -120 2u
                                                                Cleveland Indians -119 3u
                                                                San Diego Padres -163 5u
                                                                Last edited by Gaze73; 09-01-14, 11:38 AM.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Bostongambler
                                                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                  • 02-01-08
                                                                  • 35581

                                                                  #207
                                                                  Can we get a guarantee with that free money please. tyia
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • keel44
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 08-01-09
                                                                    • 3363

                                                                    #208
                                                                    Keep your chin up and plug away
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Gaze73
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 01-27-14
                                                                      • 3291

                                                                      #209
                                                                      -5,82=21,9

                                                                      I can't believe Giants lost. How do super-hot teams with huge pitching edge manage to lose to awful teams with massive loss streaks so often?
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • keel44
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 08-01-09
                                                                        • 3363

                                                                        #210
                                                                        Nothing should surprise you, it is about probability. The odds need to be "better" than the probability. I lost with the Giants too, but I had them -1.5 being in Colorado and all. I understand these things happen, take a stab at something with more appealing odds, you just might surprise yourself.
                                                                        Comment
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