MLB - Wednesday, 6/4/14

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Wednesday, 6/4/14
    7 MLB Plays Wednesday

    Mariners / Braves OVER 6.5 -115 (Heritage)
    Phillies +176 (5 Dimes)
    Yankees +128 (5 Dimes)
    Marlins / Rays UNDER 7 -124 (5 Dimes)
    Cubs -109 (Heritage)
    Rangers -103 (Heritage)
    Orioles / Rangers OVER 9 -125 (5 Dimes)


    YTD: 158-186-4, -8.62
  • leetreaper
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 10-23-10
    • 34841

    #2
    Getting there LT, one more push
    Comment
    • PorkChop
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 09-18-08
      • 8193

      #3
      Curious LT, what makes you lean Over on M's/Braves..?
      Comment
      • leetreaper
        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
        • 10-23-10
        • 34841

        #4
        Originally posted by PorkChop
        Curious LT, what makes you lean Over on M's/Braves..?
        look at the pitchers last performances lol...
        Comment
        • LT Profits
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 10-27-06
          • 90963

          #5
          Originally posted by PorkChop
          Curious LT, what makes you lean Over on M's/Braves..?
          6.5 is a low total for a game where neither pitcher is an ace type and the normally great Atlanta bullpen has been slumping as of late.
          Comment
          • LT Profits
            SBR Aristocracy
            • 10-27-06
            • 90963

            #6
            1 MLB Addition

            8 MLB Plays Wednesday

            Mariners / Braves OVER 6.5 -115 (Heritage)
            Phillies +176 (5 Dimes)
            Yankees +128 (5 Dimes)
            Marlins / Rays UNDER 7 -124 (5 Dimes)
            Cubs -109 (Heritage)
            Rangers -103 (Heritage)
            Orioles / Rangers OVER 9 -125 (5 Dimes)
            White Sox / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -120 (5 Dimes)
            Comment
            • farmhouse1
              SBR MVP
              • 02-14-14
              • 4377

              #7
              Phillies Yankees
              Comment
              • Capper1124
                SBR MVP
                • 11-23-13
                • 1914

                #8
                GL to you tonight LT
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  Originally posted by farmhouse1
                  Phillies Yankees
                  +21 units last 11 days
                  Comment
                  • No coincidences
                    SBR Aristocracy
                    • 01-18-10
                    • 76300

                    #10
                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                    6.5 is a low total for a game where neither pitcher is an ace type and the normally great Atlanta bullpen has been slumping as of late.
                    Iwakuma isn't ace material? Since when?
                    Comment
                    • Trmeyer
                      SBR MVP
                      • 11-03-11
                      • 1836

                      #11
                      Cubs wont win tonight.
                      Comment
                      • LT Profits
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 10-27-06
                        • 90963

                        #12
                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                        Iwakuma isn't ace material? Since when?
                        He hasn't been nearly as good this year as he was last year (before today ). His strikeout rate is way down from about 7.5 per nine innings last year to a shade less than 6.0 this year, and he entered today's game with a 3.79 FIP.
                        Comment
                        • No coincidences
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-18-10
                          • 76300

                          #13
                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                          He hasn't been nearly as good this year as he was last year (before today ). His strikeout rate is way down from about 7.5 per nine innings last year to a shade less than 6.0 this year, and he entered today's game with a 3.79 FIP.
                          You're comparing those numbers to a borderline Cy Young season, though. He's still ace material, even if he's not as good as '13. WHIP is down; control looks better.
                          Comment
                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #14
                            Originally posted by No coincidences
                            You're comparing those numbers to a borderline Cy Young season, though. He's still ace material, even if he's not as good as '13. WHIP is down; control looks better.
                            Bottom line is still 3.79 FIP. Not bad but not stellar.
                            Comment
                            • LT Profits
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 10-27-06
                              • 90963

                              #15
                              Originally posted by LT Profits
                              Bottom line is still 3.79 FIP. Not bad but not stellar.
                              But of course he is Cy Young today.
                              Comment
                              • No coincidences
                                SBR Aristocracy
                                • 01-18-10
                                • 76300

                                #16
                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                Bottom line is still 3.79 FIP. Not bad but not stellar.
                                You have fallen into an advanced stats trance.

                                Have you actually watched him pitch this year?
                                Comment
                                • leetreaper
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 10-23-10
                                  • 34841

                                  #17
                                  LT is clueless, can't you tell by his numbers in every sport lol...
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by No coincidences
                                    You have fallen into an advanced stats trance.

                                    Have you actually watched him pitch this year?
                                    I hardly ever watch any baseball games any more, everything I do (and have always done) in every sport is numbers based.
                                    Comment
                                    • LT Profits
                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                      • 10-27-06
                                      • 90963

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by leetreaper
                                      LT is clueless, can't you tell by his numbers in every sport lol...
                                      Hardly watched games during all the winning years either. Anything that cannot be quantified does not matter IMO.
                                      Comment
                                      • leetreaper
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 10-23-10
                                        • 34841

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by LT Profits
                                        I hardly ever watch any baseball games any more, everything I do (and have always done) in every sport is numbers based.
                                        Well, unfortunately for you, it shows.
                                        Comment
                                        • LT Profits
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-27-06
                                          • 90963

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by leetreaper
                                          Well, unfortunately for you, it shows.
                                          Re-read Post #19. I have ALWAYS been numbers based. Difference is market has gotten much tighter since my glory years at SBR when I won in everything every year. I forget the exact number but I think it was something like 16 straight winning season to begin my SBR career.
                                          Comment
                                          • leetreaper
                                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                            • 10-23-10
                                            • 34841

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                                            Re-read Post #19. I have ALWAYS been numbers based. Difference is market has gotten much tighter since my glory years at SBR when I won in everything every year. I forget the exact number but I think it was something like 16 straight winning season to begin my SBR career.
                                            ok good luck anyways
                                            Comment
                                            • No coincidences
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 01-18-10
                                              • 76300

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by LT Profits
                                              Hardly watched games during all the winning years either. Anything that cannot be quantified does not matter IMO.
                                              Did you win in baseball regularly before? I agree with certain sports, but in baseball -- where past numbers don't necessarily indicate any future performance and fluke runs/seasons are the norm -- I find it hard to believe that you can win consistently without ever watching games. You can drive yourself crazy betting against teams and players that just find a way in given seasons and defy all odds and stats -- like the Orioles in '12 and the Pirates last year. You would've gone broke banking on their regression, which didn't come until the next season.
                                              Comment
                                              • No coincidences
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 01-18-10
                                                • 76300

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                Re-read Post #19. I have ALWAYS been numbers based. Difference is market has gotten much tighter since my glory years at SBR when I won in everything every year. I forget the exact number but I think it was something like 16 straight winning season to begin my SBR career.
                                                I find it hard to believe that you can win without ever watching games and getting an actual feel for what's going on, but to each his own. I'm not saying you have to sit in a bunker and break down tape inning by inning, but catching a game every once in a while can be nothing but beneficial. And I'm not sure how you quantify the market "getting tighter" -- do you have proof of this?
                                                Comment
                                                • farmhouse1
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 02-14-14
                                                  • 4377

                                                  #25
                                                  Maybe that's why you blow. Ever think about that????
                                                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                  I hardly ever watch any baseball games any more, everything I do (and have always done) in every sport is numbers based.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • farmhouse1
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 02-14-14
                                                    • 4377

                                                    #26
                                                    Maybe that's why you blow. Ever think about that????
                                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                    I hardly ever watch any baseball games any more, everything I do (and have always done) in every sport is numbers based.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • LT Profits
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                      • 90963

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                      Did you win in baseball regularly before? I agree with certain sports, but in baseball -- where past numbers don't necessarily indicate any future performance and fluke runs/seasons are the norm -- I find it hard to believe that you can win consistently without ever watching games. You can drive yourself crazy betting against teams and players that just find a way in given seasons and defy all odds and stats -- like the Orioles in '12 and the Pirates last year. You would've gone broke banking on their regression, which didn't come until the next season.
                                                      I had a monster MLB at SBR two years ago, something like +55 units. And again, I am not doing anything different than I have always done, I have always felt that watching games is overrated from a capping point of view.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LT Profits
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-27-06
                                                        • 90963

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                        And I'm not sure how you quantify the market "getting tighter" -- do you have proof of this?
                                                        Just the fact that there are so fewer winning bettors now than a few years ago. There used to be situations that you can bet blindly without any real capping and come out ahead, but not any more. Two examples that come to mind are bullpens used to be undervalued in MLB lines and teams with negative turnover differentials in NFL used to be profitable on the blind. Those days are long gone (wasn't really THAT long ago).
                                                        Comment
                                                        • No coincidences
                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                          • 01-18-10
                                                          • 76300

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                          I had a monster MLB at SBR two years ago, something like +55 units. And again, I am not doing anything different than I have always done, I have always felt that watching games is overrated from a capping point of view.
                                                          So you attribute that to the "market tightening" as opposed to your models being rigid and/or outdated?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • No coincidences
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 01-18-10
                                                            • 76300

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                            Just the fact that there are so fewer winning bettors now than a few years ago. There used to be situations that you can bet blindly without any real capping and come out ahead, but not any more. Two examples that come to mind are bullpens used to be undervalued in MLB lines and teams with negative turnover differentials in NFL used to be profitable on the blind. Those days are long gone (wasn't really THAT long ago).
                                                            There are? According to who?

                                                            Sounds like you're just using revisionist history to explain away your recent struggles. The market is constantly fluid, but I wouldn't necessarily equate that to being "tighter." Have you made any adjustments to your models/methods?
                                                            Comment
                                                            • leetreaper
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 10-23-10
                                                              • 34841

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by No coincidences
                                                              There are? According to who?

                                                              Sounds like you're just using revisionist history to explain away your recent struggles. The market is constantly fluid, but I wouldn't necessarily equate that to being "tighter." Have you made any adjustments to your models/methods?
                                                              Obv not, from what i can tell he bets mostly trends and against the public.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • LT Profits
                                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                                • 10-27-06
                                                                • 90963

                                                                #32
                                                                4 Last MLB Additions (Busy Day!)

                                                                12 MLB Plays Wednesday

                                                                Mariners / Braves OVER 6.5 -115 (Heritage)
                                                                Phillies +176 (5 Dimes)
                                                                Phillies / Nationals OVER 7 -107 (5 Dimes)
                                                                Yankees +128 (5 Dimes)
                                                                Athletics / Yankees UNDER 9 -112 (5 Dimes)
                                                                Reds -111 (Heritage)
                                                                Marlins / Rays UNDER 7 -124 (5 Dimes)
                                                                Cubs -109 (Heritage)
                                                                Cubs -1.5 +190 (5 Dimes)
                                                                Rangers -103 (Heritage)
                                                                Orioles / Rangers OVER 9 -125 (5 Dimes)
                                                                White Sox / Dodgers UNDER 7.5 -120 (5 Dimes)
                                                                Comment
                                                                • farmhouse1
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 02-14-14
                                                                  • 4377

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Phillies Yankees
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • LT Profits
                                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                                    • 10-27-06
                                                                    • 90963

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Hope I don't lose my Phillies Over to rain.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • LT Profits
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                                      • 90963

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Cool, Phils resuming at 11:15 ET.
                                                                      Comment
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